Don haka kun ji yawan jita-jita na kasuwa da za su dawwama a rayuwa.
Labari mara kyau shine zaku saurare shi yayin da ake rubuta sabbin kalmomi, gagarabadau, da jimloli kuma suna shiga cikin adabin kuɗi.
Wasu za su yi hankali, wasu kuma ba su da yawa. Koyaya, kuma zan iya ba ku tabbacin wannan, da zarar kun ji kalmar "samfurin ƙimar DCF," za a bar ku cikin ma'ana da ban mamaki.
Menene? Me ake amfani dashi?
Yaya ake amfani da shi ga abin da ake amfani da shi?
Abubuwan da suka dace? Abubuwan da ba su da kyau?
To, ina nan don taimaka.
Wannan sakon ga duk wanda yake son fahimtar DCF kuma kada a bar shi cikin mamaki idan na gaba ya ji wani yana faɗin haka a talabijin ko a wurin taron jama'a.
Mafi kyau duk da haka, a lokacin da na gama da wannan, ina fata wasu daga cikinku za su kasance da kwarin gwiwa don jefa wannan jumlar kuma su yi kama da guru na kuɗi.
Shirya? Yayi kyau. Mu tafi.
1. Menene DCF?
DCF yana tsaye don rangwamen tsabar kuɗi. An gina wannan dabarar ƙima akan ka'idar sauti cewa $ na tsabar kuɗi a yau ya fi soyuwa fiye da $ na tsabar kuɗi a nan gaba.
Koma kina karama sai kawunki daga gari yazo ya kawo miki zabi domin bai kawo kwalin cakulan da kuke so ba.
Dauki lissafin $1 yau ko jira shi ya ziyarci lokaci na gaba kuma a samo muku akwatunan cakulan guda biyu.
Za ku auna fiye da abin da za ku iya samu a yau fiye da yadda za ku samu a nan gaba. Don haka, zaɓinku shine ku kama wannan lissafin $.
Amsar ku anan tana jagorantar tabbacin halin yanzu da rashin tabbas na gaba. Bayan haka, babu wanda ya san lokacin da kawun zai sake ziyartan, kuma babu tabbacin zai tuna ya kawo kwalin cakulan, balle biyu, a gaba zai zo.
Har ila yau, watakila ba zan so cakulan ba a lokacin da ya zo na gaba saboda ina shiga samari na kuma ina so in shagala don gina wannan Pack Six?
Ko menene dalili, muna da tsari mai ma'ana & ma'ana don yin aiki da shi anan. Kuɗin kuɗi a yau ya fi tsada fiye da tsabar kuɗi a nan gaba.
2. Menene Rangwame a DCF?
Kyakkyawar kuɗi shine babu ɗaki ga falsafa sai dai idan ana iya fayyace ta ta hanyar lissafi. The Lordships of Finance (masu ilimi na farko) sun yi muhawara kan yadda za a ƙirƙiri rangwamen tsabar kuɗi na shekaru. Ka'idar da ta ci gaba, bayan dogon nazari, ta ta'allaka ne kan ra'ayin farashin damar.
Ina da $ yau da zan iya zuba jari kuma samun $1.1 a shekara daga baya. Ko wannan yarjejeniya ce mai kyau zai dogara da abin da zan iya yi da $ a yau.
Ka ce zan iya saka hannun jari a wani wuri kuma in sami $1.2 a shekara daga baya. A zahiri, zan tsara damar farko a cikin mahallin na biyu. A wannan yanayin, mafi kyawun damar da ake samu na gaba yana da yuwuwar ƙimar dawowa kuma ba zan saka hannun jari a farkon ba.
Don yin magana ta ilimi, ƙimar rangwame shine ƙimar da ake buƙata daga hannun jarin da ake kimantawa. Wannan na iya zama koma bayan kasuwa na gaba ɗaya, ƙimar rashin haɗari, ƙimar rashin haɗari da wasu ƙima, ko kowane ma'auni mai dacewa. Zai bambanta dangane da yanayin.
3. Menene za a iya amfani da DCF don daraja?
DCF tana da aikace-aikace na gaske na duniya da yawa a fagen ƙima. Waɗannan sun haɗa amma ba'a iyakance ga:
- Ƙimar Aikin
- Ƙimar Kamfanin
- Ƙimar Zuba Jari
- Ƙimar Gida
- Lease Vs Sayi Yanke Shawara
- Sake Tsari & Ƙimar Bashi Mai Matsala
4. DCF - Zaɓi Misali - Ƙimar Zuba Jari
4.1. Ƙimar Zuba Jari
Bari mu ɗauka cewa an gabatar da manazarci tare da ma'auni masu zuwa
- Farashin Raba na Yanzu - $50 a kowace rabon
- Raba Shekarar da ta gabata - $5 a kowace rabon
- Girman Girma a Raba - 12% a kowace shekara
- Talakawan Stock Market Komawar Asusun Fihirisa - 10%
An gabatar da abin da ke sama, ana buƙatar mai sharhi don yin ƙima na tushen DCF don kimanta zuba jari na tsawon shekaru 5 tare da farashin hannun jari a $ 80 kowace rabon.
Notes:
- Ana nuna jarin farko a matsayin fitarwa, don haka baƙar fata baƙar fata;
- Rarraba shine tsabar kuɗi kuma yana ƙaruwa kowace shekara da 12% - yawan girma;
- Ana ƙididdige ƙimar ragi ta amfani da dabarar 1/(1+r)^n, inda r shine kasuwar hannun jari 10%. asusun index dawowa kuma n shine lokacin (Shekara 1 = 1; Shekara 2 = 2 da dai sauransu);
- NPV tana tsaye ne don Ƙimar Present Present kuma taƙaitawa ne na rangwamen tsabar kuɗi daga shekara ta 0 zuwa shekara ta 5;
- Idan NPV ta tabbata, ana ba da shawarar zuba jari. Idan ya kasance mara kyau, da shawarar zuba jari ta kasance ƙin damar. A hankali, mai saka hannun jari zai fi kyau a saka hannun jari a cikin jimlar asusun index na hannun jari maimakon.
4.2. Ƙimar Kamfanin
Hakanan ana iya amfani da wannan ra'ayi ga Ƙimar Kamfanin kuma. Anan, bari mu ɗauka cewa an gabatar mana da waɗannan bayanai masu zuwa:
- Farashin Raba na Yanzu - $50 a kowace rabon
- Raba Shekarar da ta gabata - $5 a kowace rabon
- Girman Girma a Raba - 3% a kowace shekara
- Matsakaicin Komawar Kuɗi na Kasuwancin Hannun jari - 10%
- Jimlar Yawan hannun jari - 1,000,000
- Babban Kasuwa na Yanzu - $50,000,000
Don darajar kamfani, za mu yi amfani da Tsarin Girman Girman Gordon (wanda ake kira Rarraba Rarraba Model), bambancin DCF.
Ana wakilta wannan ta lissafin = P0 = D0*(1+g) / (rg)
inda:
- P0 = Farashin Yau
- D0= Raba bara
- g= Girman Girma
- r = Yawan Komawa da ake bukata
Punching lambobin mu a;
- P0 = $5 (1+0.03) / (0.10-0.03)
- P0 = $73.57
Kamar yadda za a iya fayyace, ƙimar ƙimar wannan hannun jari ita ce $75.57, kuma a halin yanzu ba ta da kima.
Ƙimar Kamfanin zai zama $ 75,570,000 (Farashin Raba * Fitaccen Yawan Hannun jari).
5. Binciken Mahimmanci na DCF a matsayin Dabarar Kima
5.1. Abũbuwan amfãni
- Cikakken bincike & mai ikon haɗa mafi yawan cikakkun bayanai;
- Yana ba da damar samar da ƙima da yanke shawara masu zaman kansu ba tare da kwatankwacinsu ba a kasuwa;
- Yana ba mutum damar tafiyar da hankali na mahimman abubuwan (ci gaban GDP, ƙimar musanya, hauhawar farashi, da sauransu) da auna yadda suke tasiri ƙima.
5.2. Rashin amfani
- Yana ɗauka cewa tsabar kuɗi za ta faru a ƙarshen lokacin, wanda ba haka ba ne, saboda tsabar kuɗi na iya faruwa. Ko a wajen rabon rabon, kamfani na iya sanar da ribar har zuwa 4 a cikin shekara ta kalanda kuma yana iya sanar da ribo na musamman akan haka;
- Hasashen tafiye-tafiyen kuɗi, ƙimar girma & abubuwan rangwamen da za a yi amfani da su ƙididdiga ne kawai waɗanda ƙila ko ba za su iya faruwa ba. Don haka, dole ne a mai da hankali sosai don guje wa “sharar da ke ciki; matsalar fitar da shara;
Kammalawa
Kamar yadda kake gani, DCF kayan aiki ne mai ƙarfi don dalilai na ƙima. Da kaina, abin da nake so game da wannan hanya idan aka kwatanta da wasu shine basirar da ke tattare da ita.
Ee, akwai kaɗan kaɗan kaɗan kuma wannan hanya ba ƙaƙƙarfan ƙira ba ce ta kowace hanya.
Daidai saboda wannan dalili ne manazarta ke dogara da ƙima da yawa a aikace, sannan su kwatanta da ɗaukar matsakaici azaman mafi kyawun ƙididdiga. Abin da ake faɗi, idan kuna neman daki-daki, wannan shine mafi kyawun zaɓi daga can.
Sa'a mai kyau yana nuna sabon ilimin ku akan batun.
Idan kuna da wasu tambayoyi ko kuna son ƙarin sani, aiko mani da tambayar ku zuwa tashar FinChamps, kuma zan fi zama dole in taimaka.
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