Inā he mea hou ʻoe i ka honua o ka ʻike loea, a laila ʻo kēia kahi kūpono e hoʻomaka ai.
Ma ʻaneʻi, e ʻike ʻoe i nā mea āpau e pono ai ʻoe e ʻike no ka hoʻomaka ʻana, mai nā kumu kumu o ka pakuhi a hiki i nā manaʻo holomua e like me nā hōʻailona.
ʻO ka loiloi ʻenehana kahi mea hana ikaika e hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia e kōkua iā ʻoe e hana i nā hoʻoholo kālepa ʻike maikaʻi.
Ma ka lawe ʻana i ka manawa e aʻo a hoʻomaopopo iā ia, hiki iā ʻoe ke hāʻawi iā ʻoe iho i kahi ʻoi maoli i ka mākeke.
No laila, e hoʻomaka kākou!
He aha kaʻikepiliʻenehana?
ʻO ka ʻikepili ʻenehana ke aʻo ʻana i nā mākeke kālā e pili ana i ka ʻikepili mōʻaukala i hōʻike ʻia ma ka pakuhi. Hiki i kēia pakuhi ma ke ʻano o kahi laina, ipukukui, a i ʻole ka pahu.
Me ke kōkua o ka neʻe ʻana o ke kumukūʻai a me ka leo, hoʻomaʻamaʻa ʻia ka loiloi ʻenehana e ʻike i nā manawa kūpono e loaʻa ai nā lanakila pōkole a lōʻihi.
Manaʻo nā mea noiʻi loea ʻo ka ʻano hui o nā mea a pau i komo i ka mākeke, me nā mea kūʻai aku a me nā mea kūʻai aku, e hoʻoholo i ke kumukūʻai. Hoʻohana pinepine ʻia ka loiloi ʻenehana no ka ʻike ʻana i nā kumu kūʻai e hāʻawi i nā hōʻailona e pili ana i kahi e hele ai ke kumukūʻai.
Nā ʻōlelo kumu o ka ʻike loea
E hoʻomaka kākou me nā kumu kumu o ka loiloi ʻenehana e kōkua iā ʻoe e hoʻopaʻa ma mua o ka neʻe ʻana i kekahi mau huaʻōlelo holomua.
1. Nā ipukukui
ʻO nā kukui kukui kekahi o nā mea hana kaulana loa i hoʻohana ʻia e nā loiloi loea e loiloi i ka mākeke. He maʻalahi lākou e heluhelu a hiki ke hāʻawi i ka nui o ka ʻike e pili ana i ka mākeke.
Hana ʻia nā ipukukui ma ka hoʻolālā ʻana i ke kumukūʻai o kahi palekana i nā manawa kikoʻī. Hōʻike kēlā me kēia ipukukui i ka hana kumukūʻai ma kekahi manawa. ʻO ka ipukukui he kino a me ʻelua aka. Hōʻike ke kino i nā kumukūʻai wehe a pani no ka manawa, ʻoiai nā aka e hōʻike ana i nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe a haʻahaʻa no ka manawa.
Hiki i ka ipukukui ke hāʻawi i nā ʻike like ʻole e pili ana i ka mākeke, me ke kuhikuhi o ke ʻano, ka ikaika o ke ʻano, a me nā hoʻohuli hou ʻana. Hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia nā ipukukui i kēlā me kēia manawa, me ka hola, ʻehā hola, hoʻokahi lā, hoʻokahi mahina, a i ʻole hoʻokahi makahiki.
Inā ʻoe e hoʻomaka wale ana i ka loiloi ʻenehana, he wahi maikaʻi nā ipukukui e hoʻomaka ai. He maʻalahi lākou e wehewehe a hiki ke hāʻawi i ka ʻike waiwai e pili ana i ka mākeke.
2. Nā Manawa
I ka wā e pili ana i ka loiloi ʻenehana, ʻo kekahi o nā mea nui e noʻonoʻo ai ʻo ia ka manawa. ʻO kēia no ka mea hiki i nā papa manawa like ʻole ke hāʻawi i nā ʻike like ʻole. No ka laʻana, hiki i kahi pakuhi wā lōʻihi ke hōʻike iā ʻoe i nā ʻano holoʻokoʻa, ʻoiai hiki i kahi pakuhi wā pōkole ke hōʻike iā ʻoe i ka hana kumukūʻai koke.
ʻO kekahi o nā mea nui e hoʻomanaʻo ai, ʻaʻole pono ʻoe e hilinaʻi i ka manawa hoʻokahi wale nō. Akā, pono ʻoe e nānā i nā papa manawa he nui e kiʻi i ke kiʻi piha. No ka laʻana, hiki iā ʻoe ke nānā i kahi pakuhi no ka wā lōʻihi e ʻike ai i kahi ʻano holoʻokoʻa, a laila e nānā i kahi pakuhi pōkole i ka manawa o kāu komo ʻana.
ʻAʻohe manawa "pololei" a "hewa" e hoʻohana ai. Aia nā mea a pau i kāu ʻano kālepa a me ka ʻike āu e ʻimi nei. ʻO kekahi poʻe kālepa makemake e hoʻohana i nā pakuhi lōʻihi, aʻo nā mea'ē aʻe e makemake i nā pakuhi pōkole. ʻO ka hope loa, aia iā ʻoe ke hoʻokolohua me nā papa manawa like ʻole a ʻike i ka mea kūpono loa iā ʻoe.
3. Nā Laina Kūlana
Ma ka loiloi ʻenehana, ʻo ka laina au he laina pololei ia e hoʻopili ai i ʻelua a ʻoi aku paha nā kumukūʻai ma ka pakuhi. Hoʻohana ʻia nā laina au no ka ʻike ʻana i nā ʻano a me nā hoʻohuli ʻana.
Hiki i nā laina au ke piʻi i luna ( bullish ), downward-sloping ( bearish ), a i ʻole ka paepae ( flat ). Ua wehewehe ʻia nā hiʻohiʻona kiʻekiʻe e like me nā haʻahaʻa kiʻekiʻe a me nā kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe, ʻoiai ʻo nā hiʻohiʻona haʻahaʻa i wehewehe ʻia e like me nā haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa a me nā kiʻekiʻe haʻahaʻa. Hoʻohana ʻia nā laina kuʻekuʻe e ʻike i nā pae kākoʻo a kūʻē.
Hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia nā laina au i kēlā me kēia manawa, akā ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma nā papa manawa lōʻihi e like me nā pakuhi i kēlā me kēia lā, pule, a i ʻole mahina ke hāʻawi lākou i kahi hōʻailona ikaika a hoʻemi i nā leo i nā manawa pōkole.
I ke kahakiʻi ʻana i nā laina au, pono e hoʻohana i nā helu kumu kūʻai he nui. ʻOi aku ka nui o nā helu kumu kūʻai i hoʻopili ʻia, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka laina au.
ʻElua ʻano laina au:
- Nā laina au kākoʻo a me ke kū'ē
- Ke neʻe nei i nā laina au maʻamau
Kuhi ʻia nā laina kākoʻo a me ke kūʻē ʻana ma o ka hoʻohui ʻana i nā haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa i kahi uptrend a me nā kumu kūʻai kiʻekiʻe ma kahi downtrend. Hōʻike kēia mau laina au i ke kiʻekiʻe o nā kumukūʻai e loaʻa ai ke kākoʻo a i ʻole ke kūʻē.
Hoʻokumu ʻia nā laina au o ka neʻe ʻana ma o ka hoʻolālā ʻana i ka awelika neʻe ma ka pakuhi kumukūʻai. Hōʻike kēia mau laina maʻamau i ke kumukūʻai maʻamau o kahi palekana ma kahi manawa i hāʻawi ʻia. E kūkākūkā mākou ma mua o kēia ʻatikala.
He mea pono nā laina laina no ka poʻe kālepa e ʻike i nā ʻano a hana i nā hoʻoholo kālepa. Eia nō naʻe, pono e hoʻomanaʻo ʻaʻole pololei nā laina au a pono e hoʻohana pū ʻia me nā hōʻailona ʻenehana ʻē aʻe.
4. Nā Kūlana
Aia nā ʻano hiʻohiʻona e nānā ʻia e nā mea loiloi loea i ka wā e hoʻāʻo ai e wānana i nā neʻe kumukūʻai e hiki mai ana. ʻO kekahi o nā hiʻohiʻona kaulana loa:
1. Poʻo & Poʻohiwi
He ʻano hoʻololi kēia i hana ʻia i ka wā e hoʻokumu ai ke kumukūʻai i kahi piko (ke poʻo), a ukali ʻia e kahi kiʻekiʻe haʻahaʻa (ka poʻohiwi hema), a laila kekahi piko (ka poʻohiwi ʻākau). ʻO ka poʻohiwi'ākau ka haʻahaʻa ma mua o ke poʻo, a ua manaʻoʻia keʻano hoʻohālike i ka wā e haki ai ke kumukūʻai ma lalo o ka neckline.
2. Luna ʻelua
He ʻano hoʻohuli kēia i hana ʻia i ka wā i hoʻokumu ʻia ai ke kumukūʻai i ʻelua mau puʻupuʻu, me ka haʻahaʻa o ka lua ma mua o ka mua. Manaʻo ʻia ke kumu hoʻohālike i ka wā e haki ai ke kumukūʻai ma lalo o ke laina kākoʻo i hana ʻia e nā kiʻekiʻe ʻelua.
3. Kaulua lalo
He ʻano hoʻololi kēia i hana ʻia i ka wā e hoʻokumu ai ke kumukūʻai i ʻelua mau haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o ka haʻahaʻa ʻelua ma mua o ka mua. Manaʻo ʻia ke kumu hoʻohālike i ka wā e haki ai ke kumukūʻai ma luna o ka laina kūʻē i hana ʻia e nā haʻahaʻa ʻelua.
4. ʻO luna ʻekolu
He ʻano hoʻololi kēia i hana ʻia i ka wā i hoʻokumu ʻia ai ke kumukūʻai i ʻekolu mau puʻupuʻu, me ka haʻahaʻa o ke kolu o ka piko ma mua o nā lua mua. Manaʻo ʻia ke kumu hoʻohālike i ka wā e haki ai ke kumukūʻai ma lalo o ke laina kākoʻo i hana ʻia e nā kiʻekiʻe ʻekolu.
5. Papakolu lalo
He ʻano hoʻololi kēia i hana ʻia i ka wā e hoʻokumu ai ke kumukūʻai i ʻekolu mau haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa, me ke kolu o ka haʻahaʻa ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe ma mua o nā mea ʻelua. Manaʻo ʻia ke kumu hoʻohālikelike i ka wā e haki ai ke kumukūʻai ma luna o ka laina kūʻē i hana ʻia e nā haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa ʻekolu.
He liʻiliʻi wale nō kēia o nā hiʻohiʻona like ʻole a ka poʻe loiloi loea e ʻimi nei i ka wā e hoʻāʻo ai e wānana i nā neʻe kumukūʻai e hiki mai ana. Loaʻa i kēlā me kēia hiʻohiʻona kona hoʻonohonoho ponoʻī o nā lula a me nā alakaʻi, a na ka mea nāna e hoʻoholo inā he kūpono a ʻaʻole paha ke kumu kūʻai.
5. Kumukuai & Volume
Ma ka loiloi ʻenehana, ʻo ke kumukūʻai a me ka leo ʻelua o nā hōʻailona koʻikoʻi o ka hana mākeke. ʻO ke kumukūʻai ke ana o ka waiwai o kahi palekana, aʻo ka nui ke ana o ka helu o nā ʻāpana i kālepa ʻia.
Hoʻohana pinepine ʻia ke kumukūʻai a me ka nui e ʻike i nā ʻano ma ka mākeke. Eia kekahi laʻana, inā e piʻi aʻe ke kumukūʻai o kahi palekana a piʻi ka leo, he hōʻailona paha ia e kū nei ka mākeke i ka palekana. ʻO ka mea like ʻole, inā e hāʻule ana ke kumukūʻai a piʻi ka leo, he hōʻailona paha ia e bearish ka mākeke ma ka palekana.
Hoʻohana nā mea loiloi loea i nā ʻano hana like ʻole e kālailai i ka ʻikepili kumu kūʻai a me ka nui. ʻO kekahi o nā ʻenehana maʻamau e pili ana i ka nānā ʻana i ke ʻano, ke kākoʻo a me nā pae kūʻē, a me nā awelika neʻe.
Hiki ke loaʻa ka ʻikepili kumu kūʻai a me ka nui ma ka hapa nui o nā pūnaewele kālā. Nui nā brokerage e hāʻawi i kēia ʻikepili i kā lākou mea kūʻai.
kōmike nā hoailona
ʻO nā hōʻailona ʻenehana nā mea hana i hoʻohana ʻia e nā mea kālepa e loiloi i ka ʻike kumukūʻai i hala a me kēia manawa a hoʻoholo i nā hoʻoholo kālepa. Nui nā ʻano hōʻailona ʻenehana, kēlā me kēia me kona mau ikaika a me kona nāwaliwali.
E nānā kākou i kekahi o nā hōʻailona kaulana loa i hoʻohana ʻia e nā mea kālepa ikaika a me nā mea hoʻopukapuka.
1. Nā neʻe neʻe ʻana
ʻO ka awelika hoʻoneʻe e kōkua i ka hoʻomaʻemaʻe ʻana i ka hana kumu kūʻai ma ka wehe ʻana i ka "noise" mai nā fluctuations kumu kūʻai maʻamau. He hōʻailona ia e hōʻike ana i nā ʻano e pili ana i nā kumukūʻai i ka wā i hala.
Ua helu ʻia ka awelika o ka neʻe ʻana ma ka lawe ʻana i ka awelika o kekahi helu o nā kumukūʻai i hala, a laila hoʻolālā ʻia ka helu ʻikepili hopena ma ka pakuhi. ʻO ka helu o nā kumukūʻai i hala i hoʻohana ʻia i ka helu ʻana i ʻike ʻia ʻo ka manawa. No ka laʻana, hoʻohana ka awelika neʻe 10-manawa i nā helu ʻikepili hope loa he 10 e helu ai i ka waiwai awelika neʻe aʻe.
E like me ka manaʻo o ka inoa, "neʻe" nā awelika neʻe no ka mea e helu mau ʻia lākou i ka wā e komo mai ai ka ʻikepili kumu kūʻai hou. Ke piʻi ke kumu kūʻai ma luna o ka awelika neʻe, manaʻo ʻia he uptrend, a i ka wā i emi ai ke kumukūʻai ma lalo o ka awelika neʻe, manaʻo ʻia he downtrend.
Aia kekahi mau ʻano like ʻole o ka neʻe ʻana i hoʻohana ʻia ma nā ʻano like ʻole e nā mea kālepa. ʻO ka mea maʻamau ka Simple Moving Average (SMA), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a me Weighted Moving Average (WMA).
- 'O ka 'awelika ne'e ma'alahi ka 'ano ma'amau o ka 'awelika ne'e. Ua helu ʻia ma ka lawe ʻana i ka awelika o kekahi helu o nā kumukūʻai i hala. No ka laʻana, hoʻohana ka SMA 10-manawa i nā helu ʻikepili hope loa 10 e helu ai i ka waiwai awelika neʻe aʻe.
- ʻO ka Exponential Moving Average he ʻawelika neʻe ʻoi aku ka maʻalahi e hāʻawi i ke kaumaha i nā helu ʻikepili hou. ʻOi aku kēia i ka pane ʻana i nā loli kumukūʻai hou ma mua o ka Simple Moving Average.
- Ua like ka Weighted Moving Average me ka Exponential Moving Average, akā hāʻawi ia i ke kaumaha i nā helu ʻikepili hou. ʻOi aku kēia i ka pane ʻana i nā loli kumukūʻai hou ma mua o ka Exponential Moving Average.
ʻO ka neʻe ʻana o nā awelika he hōʻailona loiloi loea kaulana no ka mea maʻalahi lākou e hoʻomaopopo a maʻalahi hoʻi e hoʻohana. Hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia e ʻike i ke ʻano o ke ʻano, a me nā pae kākoʻo a me ke kūʻē.
2. Fibonacci Retracement
Ma ka loiloi ʻenehana, hoʻohana ʻia ka Fibonacci retracements e ʻike i ke kākoʻo a me nā pae kūʻē. Hoʻokumu ʻia nā retracements Fibonacci ma ka manaʻo e hoʻihoʻi nā mākeke i kahi ʻāpana o kahi neʻe ma mua o ka hoʻomau ʻana i ke ala kumu.
Hoʻohana ʻia kekahi mau lakio Fibonacci i nā retracements, akā ʻo ka mea maʻamau he 38.2%, 50%, a me 61.8%. Loaʻa kēia mau lakio mai ka Fibonacci sequence, ʻo ia ka pūʻulu o nā helu kahi o kēlā me kēia helu ka huina o nā helu ʻelua i hala. No ka laʻana, ua like ke kaʻina Fibonacci e like me kēia: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, 4181 6765…
E like me kāu e ʻike ai, ʻo ka pae 38.2% retracement he 21 (34-13), ʻo ka pae 50% ʻo 34 (55-21), a ʻo ka pae 61.8% ʻo 55 (89-34). Hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia nā retracements Fibonacci i kēlā me kēia mākeke a i kēlā me kēia manawa. Eia nō naʻe, hoʻohana pinepine ʻia lākou me nā hōʻailona ʻenehana ʻē aʻe a i ʻole nā hiʻohiʻona pakuhi.
Ke hui pū me nā hōʻailona ʻenehana ʻē aʻe, hiki i ka Fibonacci retracements ke hāʻawi i kahi kiʻekiʻe o ka pololei. No ka laʻana, inā hoʻohui ʻia ka Fibonacci retracement me kahi kākoʻo a i ʻole pae kūʻē, hiki iā ia ke hāʻawi i kahi hōʻailona hilinaʻi.
Eia hou, hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia ka Fibonacci retracements e ʻike ai i nā pahuhopu kumukūʻai. No ka laʻana, inā a kumukuai hoʻihoʻi hou i ka 61.8% o kahi neʻe mua, ua manaʻo pinepine ʻia he hōʻailona e hiki ke hoʻomau i ka neʻe ʻana i lalo e hiki i ka pae Fibonacci aʻe ma 100%.
ʻO Fibonacci's retracements he mea waiwai nui no nā mea kālepa a me nā mea hoʻopukapuka. Eia naʻe, e like me nā hōʻailona ʻenehana āpau, ʻaʻole pono e hoʻohana ʻia ma kahi kaʻawale. Akā, pono e hoʻohana pū ʻia me nā hōʻailona ʻenehana a i ʻole nā hiʻohiʻona kiʻi e hōʻoia i kahi neʻe.
3. Papa kuhikuhi ikaika pili (RSI)
ʻO ka Relative Strength Index (RSI) kahi hōʻailona manawa ikaika e ana wale ana i ka nui o nā hoʻololi kumukūʻai e hoʻoholo ai inā ua overbought a oversold paha kahi waiwai a waiwai ʻē aʻe.
Hōʻike ʻia ka RSI ma ke ʻano he oscillator a ua manaʻo ʻia ka waiwai i ke kūʻai ʻana i ka wā i hiki ai ka RSI i 70 a i luna paha, ʻo ia hoʻi ke piʻi wikiwiki nei a hiki paha i ka huki ʻana. Manaʻo ʻia he oversold ke hāʻule ʻo ia ma lalo o 30, ʻo ia hoʻi ua hāʻule wikiwiki loa a pono paha no ka rebound.
Ua helu ʻia ka RSI me ka hoʻohana ʻana i kēia ʻano:
RSI = 100 – 100/(1 + RS)
Kahi RS = Awelika Loaʻa / Pohō maʻamau
Hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia ka RSI no ka ʻike ʻana i nā ʻano maʻamau a me nā hiki ke hoʻohuli. Ke piʻi ka RSI ma luna o 50, hōʻike ia aia ka waiwai i kahi uptrend, a i ka wā ma lalo o 50, hōʻike ia i ka waiwai i ka downtrend. Hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia ka RSI e ʻike i nā kūlana overbought a oversold. Ke piʻi ka RSI ma luna o 70, ua manaʻo ʻia he overbought, a i ka wā ma lalo o 30, ua manaʻo ʻia he oversold.
ʻO ka RSI kahi hōʻailona versatile hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia i nā ʻano ʻano like ʻole. He hōʻailona kaulana ia i waena o nā mea kālepa a he mea hana pono ia no ka ʻike ʻana i nā ʻano, nā kūlana overbought a oversold, a me nā mea hiki ke hoʻohuli.
4. Nā hui Bollinger
Hoʻokumu ʻia e John Bollinger i nā makahiki 1980 mua, ua manaʻo ʻia ʻo Bollinger Bands e ana i ka volatility i ka mākeke.
ʻO nā hui Bollinger he ʻekolu mau pūʻulu:
- He bana luna
- He bana haahaa
- He awelika neʻe maʻamau ma waena
ʻO ka ʻaoʻao o luna a me lalo he 2 mau ʻokoʻa maʻamau mai ka hui waena. Hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia nā Bollinger Bands no ke ana ʻana i nā kūlana overbought a oversold i ka mākeke, a me ka hopu ʻana i nā ʻano hoʻohuli.
ʻO ka manaʻo nui ma hope o nā Bollinger Bands ʻo ia ke kumukūʻai e noho i loko o nā ʻāpana o luna a me lalo i ka wā o ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa, a ua haki ke kumukūʻai mai nā kaula i nā wā o ka volatility kiʻekiʻe.
Hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia ʻo Bollinger Bands i kēlā me kēia manawa, akā hoʻohana maʻamau ʻia i nā pakuhi i kēlā me kēia lā a i ʻole pule.
lalo Line
Inā manaʻo ʻoe hiki iā ʻoe ke kālepa maʻalahi i kekahi mākeke me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka loiloi ʻenehana, hiki iā ʻoe. Eia nō naʻe, ʻo kēia mau mea hana a me nā hōʻailona he mea nui wale nō ia.
Nui nā mea hana a me nā manaʻo i ʻike ʻole ʻia. No laila, makemake wau e aʻo hou i kēia a hoʻomaʻamaʻa pono i mua o ʻoe ana kāu kālā i kekahi mea.
Inā ʻike ʻoe he mea kōkua kēia ʻatikala a makemake ʻoe e aʻo hou e pili ana i ka loiloi ʻenehana, waiho i kahi manaʻo ma lalo, a e hana hou wau i nā ʻāpana like e alakaʻi iā ʻoe. A hiki i kēlā manawa, hoʻomau i ke aʻo ʻana a hoʻomau i ka ulu.
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