Uma umusha emhlabeni wokuhlaziya umsebenzi, khona-ke lena indawo ekahle ongaqala ngayo.
Lapha, uzothola konke odinga ukukwazi ukuze uqalise, kusukela kokuyisisekelo kokushadi kuya emibonweni ethuthuke kakhulu njengezinkomba.
Ukuhlaziywa kobuchwepheshe ithuluzi elinamandla elingasetshenziswa ukukusiza wenze izinqumo zokuhweba ezinolwazi olungcono.
Ngokuthatha isikhathi sokuyifunda futhi uyiqonde, ungazinika umkhawulo wangempela emakethe.
Ngakho-ke, ake siqale!
Kuyini ubuchwepheshe bokuhlaziya?
I-Technical Analysis iwucwaningo lwezimakethe zezimali olusekelwe kudatha yomlando evezwe eshadini. Leli shadi lingaba ngendlela yomugqa, uthi lwekhandlela, noma ibha.
Ngosizo lokunyakaza kwamanani kanye nevolumu, ukuhlaziywa kobuchwepheshe kwenziwa ukuze kutholakale amathuba angenzeka okuzuza isikhathi esifushane nesikhathi eside.
Abahlaziyi bezobuchwepheshe bakholelwa ukuthi ukuziphatha okuhlangene kwabo bonke abahlanganyeli emakethe, okuhlanganisa abathengi nabathengisi, kunquma inani. Ukuhlaziya kobuchwepheshe kuvame ukusetshenziselwa ukukhomba amaphethini entengo angase anikeze imikhondo mayelana nokuthi intengo ibheke kuphi.
Imigomo Eyisisekelo Yokuhlaziywa Kwezobuchwepheshe
Ake siqale ngezinto eziyisisekelo Zokuhlaziywa Kobuchwepheshe ukuze sikusize ukubambe ngaphambi kokuthi sidlulele kwamanye amatemu athuthukile.
1. Izinti zamakhandlela
Amakhandlela angelinye lamathuluzi aziwa kakhulu asetshenziswa abahlaziyi bezobuchwepheshe ukuhlola imakethe. Afundeka kalula futhi anganikeza ingcebo yolwazi mayelana nemakethe.
Izinti zamakhandlela zenziwa ngokuhlela intengo yesibambiso ngezikhathi ezithile. Ikhandlela ngalinye limelela isenzo senani phakathi nenkathi ethile yesikhathi. Uthi lwekhandlela lwakhiwe umzimba nezithunzi ezimbili. Umzimba umele izintengo ezivulekile nezivaliwe zenkathi, kuyilapho izithunzi zimelela amanani aphezulu naphansi enkathi.
Ikhandlela linganikeza ulwazi oluhlukahlukene mayelana nemakethe, okuhlanganisa ukuqondiswa kwethrendi, amandla ethrendi, kanye nokuhlehla okungaba khona. Izinti zamakhandlela zingasetshenziswa kunoma yisiphi isikhathi, kufaka phakathi ihora, amahora amane, usuku olulodwa, inyanga eyodwa, noma unyaka owodwa.
Uma usaqala ekuhlaziyweni kwezobuchwepheshe, izinti zamakhandlela ziyindawo enhle yokuqala. Kulula ukuzihumusha futhi zinganikeza ulwazi olubalulekile mayelana nemakethe.
2. Amafreyimu esikhathi
Uma kuziwa ekuhlaziyweni kobuchwepheshe, enye yezinto ezibaluleke kakhulu okufanele icatshangelwe isikhathi esibekiwe. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi izikhathi ezihlukene zinganikeza ulwazi oluhlukile. Isibonelo, ishadi lesikhathi eside lingakubonisa amathrendi ewonke, kuyilapho ishadi lesikhathi esifushane lingakubonisa isenzo sentengo esisheshayo.
Enye yezinto ezibaluleke kakhulu okufanele uyikhumbule ukuthi akufanele uthembele kuhlaka lwesikhathi esisodwa kuphela. Kunalokho, kufanele ubheke amafreyimu ezikhathi eziningi ukuze uthole isithombe esiphelele. Isibonelo, ungase ubheke ishadi lesikhathi eside ukuze uhlonze ithrendi iyonke, bese ubheka ishadi lesikhathi esifushane ukuze ubeke isikhathi sakho.
Alukho uhlaka lwesikhathi "olulungile" noma "olungalungile" oluzosetshenziswa. Konke kuncike kwisitayela sakho sokuhweba nokuthi yiluphi ulwazi olufunayo. Abanye abathengisi bakhetha ukusebenzisa amashadi esikhathi eside, kuyilapho abanye bekhetha amashadi esikhathi esifushane. Ekugcineni, kukuwe ukuthi uzame amafreyimu esikhathi ahlukene futhi ubone ukuthi yini ekusebenzela kangcono.
3. Imigqa Yethrendi
Ekuhlaziyweni kobuchwepheshe, umugqa wethrendi umugqa oqondile oxhuma amaphuzu amanani amabili noma ngaphezulu eshadini. Imigqa yethrendi isetshenziselwa ukukhomba okuthrendayo nokuhlehla kwethrendi.
Imigqa yethrendi ingaba phezulu-ehleleyo ( bullish), eyehlela phansi (bearish), noma evundlile ( flat). Amathrendi akhuphukayo achazwa njengokuphezulu okuphansi nokuphezulu, kuyilapho amathrendi aphansi achazwa njengokuphansi okuphansi nokuphezulu. Imigqa yethrendi evundlile isetshenziselwa ukukhomba amazinga okusekela nawokumelana.
Imigqa ethrendayo ingasetshenziswa kunoma yisiphi isikhathi, kodwa iwusizo kakhulu kumafreyimu esikhathi eside njengamashadi ansuku zonke, amasonto onke, noma anyanga zonke njengoba enikeza isignali eqinile futhi enciphisa imisindo ekhona kumafreyimu esikhathi amafushane.
Lapho udweba imigqa yethrendi, kubalulekile ukusebenzisa amaphuzu amanani amaningi ngangokunokwenzeka. Uma amaphuzu entengo engeziwe axhunyiwe, umugqa wethrendi uba ngobaluleke kakhulu.
Kunezinhlobo ezimbili zemigqa yethrendi:
- Imigqa yokusekela nokuphikiswa kwezitayela
- Imigqa yethrendi emaphakathi ehambayo
Imigqa yokusekela nokumelana nemikhuba idonswa ngokuxhuma ukwehla kwentengo ku-uptrend kanye nentengo ephezulu ku-downtrend. Le migqa yethrendi ikhombisa izinga lapho amanani angathola khona ukwesekwa noma ukumelana.
Imigqa yethrendi emaphakathi ehambayo idalwe ngokuhlela isilinganiso esinyakazayo eshadini lentengo. Le migqa yethrendi ibonisa intengo emaphakathi yesibambiso esikhathini esithile. Sizoxoxa ngakho ngokuningiliziwe ngaphambili kulesi sihloko.
Imigqa yethrendi iyithuluzi eliwusizo labathengisi ukuze bakhombe izitayela futhi benze izinqumo zokuhweba. Kodwa-ke, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuthi imigqa yethrendi ayinembile futhi kufanele isetshenziswe ngokuhambisana nezinye izinkomba zobuchwepheshe.
4. Amaphethini
Kunamaphethini ahlukahlukene abahlaziyi bezobuchwepheshe abawabhekayo lapho bezama ukubikezela ukunyakaza kwamanani esikhathi esizayo. Amanye amaphethini adume kakhulu ahlanganisa:
1. Ikhanda namahlombe
Lena iphethini yokuhlehla eyakhiwa lapho inani lakha inani eliphakeme (ikhanda), lilandelwa ukuphakama okuphansi (ihlombe lesokunxele), bese kuba elinye inani eliphakeme (ihlombe elingakwesokudla). Ihlombe elingakwesokudla ngokuvamile liphansi kunekhanda, futhi iphethini ibhekwa njengephelele lapho intengo iphuka ngaphansi kwe-neckline.
2. I-Double Top
Lena iphethini yokuhlehla edalwa lapho inani lenza iziqongo ezimbili ezilandelanayo, futhi ukuphakama kwesibili kube ngaphansi kunokuqala. Iphethini ibhekwa njengephelele lapho intengo inqamuka ngaphansi komugqa wokusekela odalwe ukuphakama okubili.
3. I-Double Bottom
Lena iphethini yokubuyisela emuva edalwa lapho inani lenza ukwehla okubili okulandelanayo, okuphansi kwesibili kube phezulu kunokuqala. Iphethini ibhekwa njengephelele lapho intengo inqamuka ngaphezu komugqa wokumelana odalwe yizinto ezimbili eziphansi.
4. Iphezulu Kathathu
Lena iphethini yokuhlehla edalwa lapho inani lenza iziqongo ezintathu ezilandelanayo, nenani eliphakeme lesithathu libe ngaphansi kwezimbili zokuqala. Iphethini ibhekwa njengephelele lapho intengo inqamuka ngaphansi komugqa wokusekela odalwe ukuphakama okuthathu.
5. Izansi Kathathu
Lena iphethini yokubuyisela emuva edalwa lapho intengo yenza ukwehla okuthathu okulandelanayo, okuphansi kwesithathu kube phezulu kunokubili kokuqala. Iphethini ibhekwa njengephelele lapho intengo inqamuka ngaphezu komugqa wokumelana odalwe yi-lows emithathu.
Lawa amaphethini ambalwa nje amaningi ahlukene abahlaziyi bezobuchwepheshe abawabhekayo lapho bezama ukubikezela ukunyakaza kwamanani okuzayo. Iphethini ngayinye inesethi yayo yemithetho nemihlahlandlela, futhi kukumhlaziyi ukuthi anqume ukuthi iphethini ivumelekile yini futhi ikufanele ukuhwebelana.
5. Inani Nomthamo
Ekuhlaziyweni kobuchwepheshe, intengo nevolumu yizinkomba ezimbili ezibalulekile zomsebenzi wemakethe. Intengo isilinganiso senani lesibambiso, kuyilapho ivolumu iyisilinganiso senani lamasheya adayiswayo.
Intengo nevolumu kuvame ukusetshenziswa ndawonye ukuze kuhlonzwe amathrendi emakethe. Isibonelo, uma intengo yesibambiso ikhuphuka futhi umthamo ukhuphuka, kungase kube uphawu lokuthi imakethe ishintshile ekuvikelekeni. Ngokuphambene, uma intengo iwa futhi ivolumu iyanda, kungase kube uphawu lokuthi imakethe i-bearish ekuvikelekeni.
Abahlaziyi bezobuchwepheshe basebenzisa amasu ahlukahlukene ukuze bahlaziye amanani nedatha yevolumu. Amanye amasu avamile ahlanganisa ukuhlaziywa kwethrendi, amazinga okusekela nawokumelana, nama-avareji ahambayo.
Inani nedatha yevolumu ingatholakala kumawebhusayithi amaningi ezezimali. Ama-brokerage amaningi ahlinzeka ngale datha kumakhasimende awo.
Izinkomba Technical
Izinkomba zobuchwepheshe zingamathuluzi asetshenziswa abahwebi ukuhlola ulwazi lwamanani esikhathi esidlule nesamanje nokwenza izinqumo zokuhweba. Kunezinhlobo eziningi ezahlukene zezinkomba zobuchwepheshe, ngayinye inamandla nobuthakathaka bayo.
Ake sibheke ezinye zezinkomba ezaziwa kakhulu ezisetshenziswa abahwebi nabatshalizimali abasebenzayo.
I-1. Ukuhambisa Amanani
Isilinganiso esinyakazayo sisiza ukususa isenzo senani ngokususa "umsindo" ekuguquguqukeni kwentengo okungahleliwe. Kuyinkomba ekhombisa amathrendi asuselwe kumanani esikhathi esedlule.
Isilinganiso esihambayo sibalwa ngokuthatha isilinganiso senani elithile lezintengo ezidlule, futhi iphuzu ledatha eliwumphumela libe selihlelwa eshadini. Inani lezintengo ezidlule elisetshenziswe ekubalweni laziwa ngokuthi isikhathi. Isibonelo, isilinganiso sokuhamba sezikhathi ezingu-10 sisebenzisa amaphuzu edatha angu-10 wokugcina ukubala inani elilandelayo elihambayo eliyisilinganiso.
Njengoba igama liphakamisa, izilinganiso ezihambayo "ziyahamba" ngoba zihlala zibalwa kabusha njengoba idatha yentengo entsha ingena. Yingakho izilinganiso ezihambayo zivame ukusetshenziselwa ukukhomba indlela yethrendi. Uma intengo ingaphezu kwesilinganiso esinyakazayo, ngokuvamile ibhekwa njengokukhuphukayo, futhi uma intengo ingaphansi kwesilinganiso esinyakazayo, ngokuvamile ibhekwa njenge-downtrend.
Kunezinhlobo ezimbalwa ezihlukene zezilinganiso ezihambayo ezisetshenziswa ngezindlela ezahlukene ngabadayisi. Okuvame kakhulu I-Simple Moving Average (SMA), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), kanye ne-Weighted Moving Average (WMA).
- I-Simple Moving Average iwuhlobo oluyisisekelo kakhulu lokuhamba okumaphakathi. Ibalwa ngokuthatha isilinganiso senani elithile lezintengo ezidlule. Isibonelo, i-SMA yezikhathi ezingu-10 izosebenzisa amaphuzu edatha angu-10 ukuze ibale inani elilandelayo elihambayo eliyisilinganiso.
- I-Exponential Moving Average iyisilinganiso esinyakazayo esithuthuke kakhulu esinikeza isisindo esiningi kumaphoyinti edatha akamuva. Lokhu kuyenza iphendule kakhulu ezinguqukweni zentengo zakamuva kune-Simple Moving Average.
- I-Weighted Moving Average ifana ne-Exponential Moving Average, kodwa inikeza isisindo esengeziwe kumaphoyinti edatha akamuva. Lokhu kuyenza iphendule nakakhulu ezinguqukweni zentengo zakamuva kune-Exponential Moving Average.
Izilinganiso ezihambayo ziyinkomba yokuhlaziya yobuchwepheshe edumile ngoba kulula ukuyiqonda futhi kulula ukuyisebenzisa. Zingasetshenziselwa ukukhomba isiqondiso sokuthambekela, kanye namazinga okusekela nawokumelana.
2. Fibonacci Retracement
Ekuhlaziyweni kobuchwepheshe, ukubuyiselwa kwe-Fibonacci kusetshenziselwa ukukhomba ukusekelwa okungaba khona kanye namazinga okumelana. Ukubuyiselwa kwe-Fibonacci kusekelwe embonweni wokuthi izimakethe zizophinda zilandele ingxenye yomnyakazo ngaphambi kokuqhubeka ngendlela yokuqala.
Izilinganiso eziningana ze-Fibonacci zisetshenziswa ekubuyiseleni emuva, kodwa ezivame kakhulu ziyi-38.2%, 50%, kanye ne-61.8%. Lezi zilinganiso zithathwe ekulandelaneni kwe-Fibonacci, okuwuchungechunge lwezinombolo lapho inombolo ngayinye iyisamba sezinombolo ezimbili zangaphambilini. Isibonelo, amafomu okulandelana kwe-Fibonacci kanje: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, 4181, 6765…
Njengoba ubona, izinga lokubuyisela elingu-38.2% lizoba ngu-21 (34-13), izinga lika-50% lizoba ngu-34 (55-21), kanti izinga lama-61.8% lizoba ngu-55 (89-34). Ukuthola kabusha kwe-Fibonacci kungasetshenziswa kunoma iyiphi imakethe nanoma yisiphi isikhathi. Kodwa-ke, zivame ukusetshenziswa ngokuhambisana nezinye izinkomba zobuchwepheshe noma amaphethini eshadi.
Uma kuhlanganiswe nezinye izinkomba zobuchwepheshe, ukubuyiselwa kwe-Fibonacci kunganikeza izinga eliphezulu lokunemba. Isibonelo, uma ukubuyiselwa kwe-Fibonacci kuhlanganiswa nezinga lokusekela noma lokumelana, kunganikeza isignali ethembeke kakhudlwana.
Ukwengeza, ukubuyiselwa kwe-Fibonacci kungasetshenziswa ukukhomba intengo engaba khona. Ngokwesibonelo, uma a isitokwe ibuyisa u-61.8% wesinyathelo sangaphambilini, ngokuvamile kubhekwa njengophawu lokuthi isitoko singase siqhubeke sihamba phansi ukuze sifinyelele ezingeni elilandelayo le-Fibonacci ku-100%.
Ukubuyiselwa kweFibonacci kuyithuluzi elibalulekile kubahwebi nabatshalizimali ngokufanayo. Nokho, njengazo zonke izinkomba zobuchwepheshe, akufanele zisetshenziswe zodwa. Kunalokho, kufanele zisetshenziswe ngokuhambisana nezinye izinkomba zobuchwepheshe noma amaphethini eshadi ukuze kuqinisekiswe umnyakazo ongase ube khona.
3. I-Relative Strength Index(RSI)
I-Relative Strength Index (RSI) iyinkomba yomfutho eqinile evele ilinganise ubukhulu bezinguquko zentengo ukuze inqume ukuthi isitoko noma enye impahla ithengwe ngokweqile noma idayiswa ngokweqile.
I-RSI iboniswa njenge-oscillator futhi impahla ibhekwa njengethengwa ngokweqile uma i-RSI ifinyelela ku-70 noma ngaphezulu, okusho ukuthi ibilokhu ikhuphuka ngokushesha kakhulu futhi ingase ibe ngenxa yokuhlehla. Ibhekwa njengedayiswe ngokweqile uma iwela ngaphansi kuka-30, okusho ukuthi ibilokhu iwa ngokushesha kakhulu futhi ingase ibe ngenxa yokuphinda ibhandwe.
I-RSI ibalwa kusetshenziswa ifomula elandelayo:
I-RSI = 100 – 100/(1 + RS)
Lapho i-RS = Inzuzo Emaphakathi / Ukulahlekelwa Okumaphakathi
I-RSI ingasetshenziselwa ukukhomba amathrendi ajwayelekile kanye nokuhlehla okungaba khona. Uma i-RSI ingaphezu kuka-50, ikhombisa ukuthi impahla ikwi-uptrend, futhi uma ingaphansi kwama-50, ikhombisa ukuthi impahla ikwi-downtrend. I-RSI ingasetshenziswa futhi ukukhomba izimo ezithengwe ngokweqile nezidayiswe kakhulu. Uma i-RSI ingaphezu kuka-70, ibhekwa njengethengwa kakhulu, futhi uma ingaphansi kuka-30, ibhekwa njengedayiswe ngokweqile.
I-RSI iyinkomba eguquguqukayo engasetshenziswa ngezindlela eziningi ezahlukene. Kuyinkomba edumile phakathi kwabahwebi futhi iyithuluzi eliwusizo lokuhlonza amathrendi, izimo ezithengiwe kakhulu nezidayiswe kakhulu, kanye nokuguqulwa okungenzeka.
4. Amabhendi eBollinger
Idalwe nguJohn Bollinger ekuqaleni kwawo-1980, ama-Bollinger Bands enzelwe ukukala ukuguquguquka emakethe.
Amabhendi e-Bollinger aqukethe amabhendi amathathu:
- Ibhande eliphezulu
- Ibhendi ephansi
- Isilinganiso esijwayelekile esinyakazayo phakathi nendawo
Amabhendi aphezulu naphansi avamise ukuchezuka okujwayelekile okungu-2 ukusuka ebhendini ephakathi. Amabhendi e-Bollinger angasetshenziswa ukukala izimo ezithengiwe kakhulu nezidayiswe kakhulu emakethe, kanye nokubamba ukuguqulwa kwethrendi okungenzeka kube khona.
Umqondo oyinhloko ngemuva kwama-Bollinger Bands ukuthi intengo ivamise ukuhlala ngaphakathi kwamabhendi aphezulu naphansi phakathi nezikhathi zokuguquguquka okuphansi, futhi leyo ntengo iphuma kumabhendi ngezikhathi zokuguquguquka okuphezulu.
Amabhendi e-Bollinger angasetshenziswa kunoma yisiphi isikhathi, kodwa asetshenziswa kakhulu kumashadi wansuku zonke noma weviki.
Umugqa Ongezansi
Uma ucabanga ukuthi ungakwazi ukuhweba kalula kunoma iyiphi imakethe usebenzisa ukuhlaziywa kobuchwepheshe, ungakwazi. Nokho, wonke la mathuluzi nezinkomba kwakungumongo wawo nje.
Kunamathuluzi amaningi nemiqondo engakatholwa. Ngakho-ke, ngingancoma ukuthi ufunde kabanzi ngalokhu futhi ukwenze kahle phambi kwakho ukutshala imali yakho kunoma yini.
Uma uthola lesi sihloko siwusizo futhi ufuna ukufunda okwengeziwe mayelana nokuhlaziywa kobuchwepheshe, shiya amazwana ngezansi, futhi ngizokwenza izingcezu ezinjalo eziningi ukukuqondisa. Kuze kube yileso sikhathi, qhubeka ufunda futhi uqhubeke ukhula.
shiya impendulo