Chifukwa chake mwamva zambiri zamsika zomwe zingakuthandizeni moyo wanu wonse.
Nkhani yoyipa ndi yakuti mudzamvetsera zambiri pamene mawu atsopano, ma acronyms, ndi ziganizo zimapangidwira ndikupanga njira zawo kukhala zolemba zachuma.
Zina zidzakhala zomveka, ndipo zina siziri choncho. Komabe, ndikukutsimikizirani izi, mukamva mawu akuti "DCF valuation model," mudzasiyidwa modabwitsa komanso modabwitsa.
Ndi chiyani? Kodi chimagwiritsidwa ntchito chiyani?
Kodi chimagwiritsidwa ntchito bwanji pazomwe chimagwiritsidwa ntchito?
Zabwino? Zoipa?
Chabwino, ndili pano kuti ndikuthandizeni.
Nkhaniyi ndi ya aliyense amene akufuna kumvetsetsa DCF ndipo asadzasiyidwe modabwitsa nthawi ina akadzamva wina akunena izi pa TV kapena paphwando.
Zabwinonso, ndikadzamaliza izi, ndikhulupilira kuti ena a inu mudzakhala otsimikiza kuti mutha kuponya mawuwa ndikumveka ngati katswiri wazachuma.
Mwakonzeka? Zabwino. Tiyeni tizipita.
1. Kodi DCF ndi chiyani?
DCF imayimira kutsika kwa ndalama. Njira yowerengera iyi imamangidwa pamalingaliro omveka kuti ndalama zoyendetsera ndalama masiku ano ndizofunika kwambiri kuposa $ ya ndalama mtsogolomo.
Bwererani pamene mudali mwana ndipo amalume anu ochokera kunja kwa tawuni anabwera kudzakuchezerani ndikukupatsani chisankho chifukwa sanabweretse bokosi la chokoleti laulere lomwe mumalakalaka.
Tengani bilu ya $ 1 lero kapena mudikire kuti adzabwerenso nthawi ina ndikutengerani mabokosi awiri a chokoleti.
Mudzalemera kuposa momwe mungapezere lero kuposa momwe mungatengere mtsogolo. Chifukwa chake, kusankha kwanu ndikutengera $ bill.
Mayankho anu apa akutsogozedwa ndi kutsimikizika kwazomwe zikuchitika komanso kusatsimikizika kwamtsogolo. Ndipotu palibe amene akudziwa kuti amalumewo adzabwera liti kudzachezanso, ndipo palibe chitsimikizo chakuti adzakumbukira kubweretsa bokosi limodzi la chokoleti, ngakhale ziwiri, ulendo wina akabweranso.
Komanso, mwina sindingakonde chokoleti akadzabweranso chifukwa ndikulowa unyamata wanga ndipo ndikufuna kukhala otanganidwa ndikumanga Six Pack?
Ziribe chifukwa chake, tili ndi dongosolo lomveka komanso lomveka kuti tigwire nawo ntchito pano. Mayendedwe a ndalama lero ndi okwera mtengo kuposa ndalama zamtsogolo.
2. Kodi Kuchotsera mu DCF Ndi Chiyani?
Kukongola kwachuma ndikuti palibe malo afilosofi pokhapokha ngati atha kufotokozedwa mwamasamu. A Lordships of Finance (akatswiri oyambilira) adakambirana za momwe angapangire kuchotsera kwandalama kwazaka zambiri. Chiphunzitso chomwe chinalipo, pambuyo polingalira kwambiri, chinakhazikika pa lingaliro la mtengo wa mwayi.
Ndili ndi $ lero lomwe ndingathe aganyali ndikupeza $1.1 chaka chotsatira. Kaya izi ndizabwino zingadalire zomwe ndingachite ndi $ lero.
Nenani kuti ndikhoza kuziyika kwina ndikupeza $ 1.2 patatha chaka. Mwachibadwa, ndidzakonza mwayi woyamba mu nkhani yachiwiri. Pankhaniyi, mwayi wotsatira womwe ukupezeka uli ndi mwayi wobwereza ndipo sindidzayikapo ndalama yoyamba.
Kuti tilankhule zamaphunziro, chochotsera ndicho chiwongola dzanja chochokera ku ndalama zomwe zikuwunikiridwa. Izi zitha kukhala kubweza kwa msika, mtengo wopanda chiwopsezo, mtengo wopanda chiwopsezo kuphatikiza mtengo wina wa equity, kapena benchmark ina iliyonse yoyenera. Zidzasiyana malinga ndi momwe zinthu zilili.
3. Kodi DCF ingagwiritsidwe ntchito pa mtengo wanji?
DCF ili ndi ntchito zambiri zapadziko lonse lapansi pazowunikira. Izi zikuphatikiza koma sizimangokhala:
- Kuwunika kwa Project
- Company Valuation
- Kuwunika kwa Investment
- Mtengo wa Real Estate
- Kubwereketsa Vs Kugula zisankho
- Kukonzanso ndi Kuwerengera Ngongole Yovutitsidwa
4. DCF - Sankhani Chitsanzo - Kuwunika kwa Zachuma
4.1. Kuwunika kwa Investment
Tiyerekeze kuti wowunika amaperekedwa ndi ma metric otsatirawa
- Mtengo Wogawana Pano - $ 50 pagawo lililonse
- Gawo la Chaka Chatha - $5 pagawo lililonse
- Chiwopsezo cha Kukula mu Gawo - 12% pachaka
- Avereji Msika wogulitsa Index Fund Return - 10%
Zomwe zaperekedwa pamwambapa, wofufuzayo akufunsidwa kuti ayese kuwerengera kwa DCF kuti ayese ndalamazo kwa zaka 5 zogwira ntchito ndi mtengo wamtengo wapatali pa $ 80 pagawo.
Ndemanga:
- Ndalama zoyamba zikuwonetsedwa ngati kutuluka, motero mabala olakwika;
- Gawoli ndi ndalama zolowera ndipo zimawonjezeka chaka chilichonse ndi 12% - chiwerengero cha kukula;
- Chotsitsacho chimawerengedwa pogwiritsa ntchito njira 1/(1+r)^n, pomwe r ndi 10% msika wamasheya. thumba la ndondomeko kubwerera ndipo n ndi nthawi (Chaka 1 = 1; Chaka 2 = 2 etc);
- NPV imayimira Net Present Value ndipo ndi chidule cha kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe zatsika kuyambira Chaka 0 mpaka Chaka 5;
- Ngati NPV ili yabwino, ndalamazo zimalimbikitsidwa. Zikanakhala zoipa, chisankho cha ndalama chikanakhala kukana mwayi. Zomveka, wogulitsa ndalama akanakhala bwino ataika ndalama mu thumba lonse la stock market index m'malo mwake.
4.2. Company Valuation
Lingaliro lomwelo litha kugwiritsidwanso ntchito ku Company Valuation. Apa, tiyerekeze kuti tapatsidwa zinthu zotsatirazi:
- Mtengo Wogawana Pano - $ 50 pagawo lililonse
- Gawo la Chaka Chatha - $5 pagawo lililonse
- Chiwopsezo cha Kukula mu Gawo - 3% pachaka
- Avereji ya Stock Market Index Fund Return - 10%
- Chiwerengero cha Magawo - 1,000,000
- Kukula Kwamsika Kwamakono - $50,000,000
Kuti kampani ikhale yamtengo wapatali, tidzagwiritsa ntchito Gordon Growth Model (yotchedwanso Dividend Discount Model), kusintha kwa DCF.
Izi zikuyimiridwa ndi equation = P0 = D0*(1+g) / (rg)
Kumene:
- P0 = Mtengo lero
- D0 = Gawo la Chaka Chatha
- g= Mlingo wa Kukula
- r = Mlingo Wofunika Wobwerera
Kulowetsa nambala yathu;
- P0 = $5(1+0.03) / (0.10-0.03)
- P0 = $73.57
Monga tinganene, mtengo wagawoli ndi $75.57, ndipo pakadali pano ndiwotsika mtengo.
Mtengo wa Kampani ukhoza kukhala $75,570,000 (Mtengo Wogawana * Nambala Yopambana Yamagawo).
5. Kusanthula Kwambiri kwa DCF ngati Njira Yowunikira
5.1. Ubwino
- Kusanthula mwatsatanetsatane & wokhoza kuphatikiza zambiri granular;
- Amalola kupanga kuwerengera ndi zisankho zosayerekezeka pamsika;
- Amalola munthu kuyendetsa chidwi cha zinthu zazikulu (kukula kwa GDP, mitengo yosinthira, kukwera kwa mitengo, ndi zina) ndikuyesa momwe zimakhudzira kuwerengera.
5.2. Zoyipa
- Amaganiza kuti ndalama zoyendetsera ndalama zidzachitika kumapeto kwa nthawi, zomwe sizili choncho, chifukwa ndalama zoyendetsera ndalama zimatha kubweranso. Ngakhale pankhani ya zopindula, kampani ikhoza kulengeza zopindula za 4 mu chaka cha kalendala ndipo ikhoza kulengeza zopindula zapadera pamwamba pa izo;
- Kuyerekeza kwa kayendedwe ka ndalama, kukula ndi kuchotsera zomwe mungagwiritse ntchito ndizongoyerekeza zomwe zitha kapena sizingachitike. Chifukwa chake, kuyenera kuchitidwa mosamala kwambiri kupeŵa “zinyalala mkati; kutaya zinyalala” vuto;
Kutsiliza
Monga mukuwonera, DCF ndi chida champhamvu pazolinga zowerengera. Mwiniwake, zomwe ndimakonda panjira iyi poyerekeza ndi ena ndi malingaliro omwe amathandizira.
Inde, pali zovuta zingapo ndipo njira iyi si njira yotsimikizika mwanjira iliyonse.
Ndicho chifukwa chake akatswiri amadalira mitundu ingapo yowerengera muzochita, ndiyeno amafanizitsa ndi kutenga ma avareji ngati kuyerekezera kopambana. Izi zikunenedwa, ngati mukufuna tsatanetsatane, iyi ndiye njira yabwino kwambiri.
Zabwino zonse powonetsa zomwe mwapeza kumene pamutuwu.
Ngati muli ndi mafunso kapena mukufuna kudziwa zambiri, nditumizireni funso lanu ku njira ya FinChamps, ndipo ndikhala wokakamizika kukuthandizani.
Siyani Mumakonda