Saka iwe wanzwa yakawanda yemusika jargon iyo ichagara iwe hupenyu hwese.
Nhau dzakaipa ndedzekuti iwe unozoteerera kune zvakawanda semashoko matsva, acronyms, uye mitsara inonyorwa uye inoita nzira yavo mumabhuku emari.
Zvimwe zvichave zvine musoro, uye vamwe kwete zvakanyanya. Nekudaro, uye ini ndinogona kukuvimbisa izvi, kana iwe ukangonzwa mutsara wekuti "DCF yemuenzaniso modhi," iwe unosara uchishamisika uye nekushamisika.
Chii? Inoshandiswa nei?
Inoshandiswa sei kune yainoshandiswa?
The positives? The negatives?
Zvakanaka, ndiri pano kuti ndibatsire.
Iyi posvo ndeye chero munhu anoda kunzwisisa DCF uye kuti asasara achishamisika nguva inotevera yaanonzwa mumwe munhu achitaura izvi paTV kana pakuungana.
Zvichiri nani, panguva yandichapedza neizvi, ndinovimba kuti vamwe venyu vachave nechivimbo chakakwana chekukanda mutsara uyu nekunzwika senge guru rezvemari.
Wakagadzirira? Kugona. Handeyi.
1. Chii chinonzi DCF?
DCF inomirira kuti mari yakaderedzwa. Iyi nzira yekuyeresa yakavakirwa pane inonzwika dzidziso yekuti madhora ekuyerera kwemari nhasi anodiwa kupfuura madhora ekuyerera kwemari mune ramangwana.
Dzokera uchiri mudiki uye sekuru vako vabva kunze kwedhorobha vakauya vachikushanya vakakupa sarudzo nekuti havana kuuya nebhokisi rechokoreti risina duty raunoshuva.
Tora $1 bhiri nhasi kana kumirira kuti ashanyire nguva inotevera uye akutsvagire mabhokisi maviri echokoreti.
Iwe uchayera kupfuura zvaunogona kuwana nhasi kupfuura zvaungazowana mune ramangwana. Saka, sarudzo yako ndeyekubata kune iyo $ bhiri.
Mhinduro yako pano inotungamirirwa nechokwadi chezvino uye kusaziva kweramangwana. Pashure pezvose, hapana anoziva kuti babamunini vachashanya rini, uye hapana vimbiso yokuti vacharangarira kuunza bhokisi rimwe rechokoreti, ndoda maviri, nguva inotevera yaanouya.
Zvakare, pamwe handingade machokoreti nguva inotevera paanouya nekuti ndiri kupinda muhudiki hwangu uye ndinoda kubatikana nekuvaka iyo Six Pack?
Chero chikonzero, isu tine zvine musoro & zvine musoro chimiro chekushanda nacho pano. Kuyerera kwemari nhasi kwakaderera pane kuyerera kwemari mune ramangwana.
2. Chii chinonzi Discount muDCF?
Kunaka kwemari ndekwekuti hapana nzvimbo yehuzivi kunze kwekunge ichigona kutaurwa nemasvomhu. The Lordships of Finance (vadzidzi vepakutanga) vakaitirana nharo pamusoro penzira yekuenzanisira kuderedzwa kwekuyerera kwemari kwemakore. Dzidziso yakatekeshera, mushure mekufungisisa kukuru, yakanangana nepfungwa yemutengo wemukana.
Ndine $ nhasi randinokwanisa shandisa mari uye uwane $ 1.1 gore gare gare. Kana iri dhiri rakanaka rinobva pane zvimwe zvandingaite ne$ nhasi.
Iti ndinogona kuisa mari kune imwe nzvimbo uye ndiwane $ 1.2 pagore gare gare. Sezvingatarisirwa, ini ndicharonga mukana wekutanga mumamiriro echipiri. Muchiitiko ichi, mukana unotevera wakanakisa unowanikwa une mukana wepamusoro wekudzoka uye ini handingaisi mari mune yekutanga.
Kuti utaure zvedzidzo, iyo inoderedzwa chinhu chiyero chinodiwa chekudzoka kubva mukudyara kuri kuongororwa. Izvi zvinogona kunge zviri kudzoka kwemusika, mwero wepasina njodzi, mwero wepasina njodzi pamwe neprimiyamu yeequity, kana chero imwe bhenji yakakodzera. Ichasiyana zvichienderana nemamiriro ezvinhu.
3. Chii chinogona kushandiswa DCF kukoshesa?
DCF ine akawanda-chaiwo epasirese mashandisirwo munharaunda yekukosha. Izvi zvinosanganisira asi hazvigumiri ku:
- Project Appraisal
- Company Valuation
- Investment Appraisal
- Real Estate Valuation
- Lease Vs Tenga Sarudzo
- Restructuring & Distressed Debt Valuation
4. DCF – Sarudza Muenzaniso – Investment Appraisal
4.1. Investment Appraisal
Ngatitorei kuti muongorori anoratidzwa nemametric anotevera
- Ikozvino Mutengo wekugovana - $50 pachikamu
- Mugove Wegore Rapera - $5 per share
- Chiyero chekukura muDividend - 12% pagore
- pakati nepakati Stock Market Index Fund Return - 10%
Zvakapiwa nezviri pamusoro apa, muongorori anokumbirwa kuita DCF-based valuation kuti aongorore mari yegore re 5 nemutengo wemari pa $ 80 per share.
Notes:
- Iko mari yekutanga inoratidzwa seyekubuda kunze, saka iyo isina kunaka maparentheses;
- Iyo dividendi ndeyekubuda kwemari uye inowedzerwa gore rega rega ne12% - mwero wekukura;
- The discount factor inoverengwa uchishandisa formula 1/(1+r)^n, uko r iri 10% stock market. index fund kudzoka uye n ndiyo nguva (Gore 1 = 1; Gore 2 = 2 nezvimwewo);
- Iyo NPV inomirira Net Present Value uye ipfupiso yekuderedzwa kwemari kubva kuGore 0 kusvika kuGore rechishanu;
- Kana iyo NPV yakanaka, mari inokurudzirwa. Dai zvanga zvisina kunaka, sarudzo yekudyara ingadai iri yekuramba mukana. Zvinonzwisisika, mushambadzi angave ari nani pakudyara mune yakazara stock market index fund panzvimbo.
4.2. Company Valuation
Pfungwa imwechete inogona kushandiswa kuCompany Valuation zvakare. Pano, ngatifungei kuti isu tinounzwa neruzivo runotevera:
- Ikozvino Mutengo wekugovana - $50 pachikamu
- Mugove Wegore Rapera - $5 per share
- Chiyero chekukura muDividend - 3% pagore
- Avhareji yeStock Market Index Fund Return - 10%
- Nhamba Yese Yezvikamu - 1,000,000
- Yazvino Market Capitalization - $50,000,000
Kuti tikoshese kambani, tichashandisa Gordon Growth Model (inonziwo Dividend Discount Model), mutsauko weDCF.
Izvi zvinomiririrwa ne equation = P0 = D0*(1+g) / (rg)
Where:
- P0 = Mutengo Nhasi
- D0= Mugove Wegore Rapera
- g= Chiyero cheKukura
- r = Chinodiwa Chiyero cheKudzoka
Tichibaya nhamba dzedu mukati;
- P0 = $5(1+0.03) / (0.10-0.03)
- P0= $73.57
Sezvinogona kutaurwa, kukosha kwakaringana kwechikamu ichi i$75.57, uye parizvino haikosheswi.
Iko kukosha kweKambani kwaizova $75,570,000 (Govera Mutengo * Yakasarudzika Nhamba Yemagove).
5. Kuongorora kwakakosha kweDCF senzira yekukoshesa
5.1. Kubatsirwa
- Detailed ongororo & inokwanisa kubatanidza iyo yakanyanya granular ruzivo;
- Inobvumira kuburitsa kukosha uye sarudzo dzakasununguka pakuenzaniswa mumusika;
- Inobvumira munhu kumhanyisa kunzwa kwezvinhu zvakakosha (GDP kukura, mitengo yekuchinjana, inflation, nezvimwewo) uye kuyera maitiro avanoita kukosha.
5.2. Kukanganisa
- Inofunga kuti kuyerera kwemari kuchaitika pakupera kwenguva, izvo zvisiri izvo, sezvo kubuda kwemari kunogona kuitika zvakare. Kunyangwe kana iri nyaya yekugovaniswa, kambani inogona kuzivisa kusvika kuzvikamu zvina mugore rekarenda uye inogona kuzivisa yakakosha migove pamusoro pazvo;
- Mafungidziro ekuyerera kwemari, kukura kwemazinga & zvidzikiso zvekushandisa zvinongori fungidziro zvinogona kana kusaitika. Nokudaro, ngwariro huru inofanira kutorwa kudzivisa “marara mukati; marara kunze” dambudziko;
mhedziso
Sezvauri kuona, DCF chishandiso chine simba chezvinangwa zvekukoshesa. Ini pachangu, chandinoda nezve nzira iyi kana ndichienzaniswa nevamwe ndiyo pfungwa inoitsigira.
Hongu, pane akati wandei anokanganisa uye nzira iyi haisi yechokwadi modhi neimwe nzira.
Ndizvo chaizvo nokuda kwechikonzero ichi kuti vaongorori vanovimba nemhando dzakawanda dzekuenzanisa mukuita, uye vobva vaenzanisa nekutora mavhareji seyakanyanya fungidziro. Izvo zviri kutaurwa, kana iwe uchitsvaga ruzivo, iyi ndiyo yakanakisa sarudzo kunze uko.
Rombo rakanaka kuratidza ruzivo rwako rwauchangobva kuwana pamusoro wenyaya.
Kana iwe uine chero mibvunzo kana uchida kuziva zvakawanda, nditumire mubvunzo wako kune FinChamps chiteshi, uye ini ndichanyanya kusungirwa kubatsira.
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