Ke uvile uninzi lwejargon yentengiso eya kuhlala ubomi bakho bonke.
Iindaba ezimbi kukuba uya kumamela ngakumbi njengoko amagama amatsha, amagama amfutshane, kunye namabinzana enziwe kwaye enze indlela yawo kuncwadi lwemali.
Ezinye ziya kuba nengqiqo, kwaye ezinye azikho kangako. Nangona kunjalo, kwaye ndingakuqinisekisa oku, nje ukuba usiva ibinzana elithi "imodeli yoqingqo-maxabiso ye-DCF," uya kushiyeka umangalisiwe kwaye usoyika.
Yintoni? Isetyenziselwa ntoni?
Isetyenziswa njani kwinto esetyenziselwa yona?
Izinto ezintle? Izinto ezingalunganga?
Ewe, ndilapha ukunceda.
Esi sithuba sesaye nabani na ofuna ukuqonda i-DCF kwaye angashiywa emangalisiwe kwixesha elizayo xa esiva umntu ethetha oku kumabonwakude okanye kwindibano yoluntu.
Kungcono noko, ngelixesha ndigqibileyo ngale nto, ndiyathemba ukuba abanye benu baya kuba nentembelo ngokwaneleyo yokuphosa eli binzana lijikeleze kwaye livakale njenge-guru wezemali.
Ngaba ulungile? Kulungile. Masihambe.
1. Yintoni i-DCF?
I-DCF imele ukungena kwemali ethotyiweyo. Le ndlela yoqingqo-maxabiso yakhiwe kwithiyori evakalayo yokuba i-$ yokuqukuqela kwemali namhlanje ibaluleke ngaphezu kwe-$ yokuqukuqela kwemali kwixesha elizayo.
Buyela usengumntwana kwaye kwafika umalume wakho ophuma edolophini ezokundwendwela wakunika ithuba lokukhetha kuba engakhange aphathe ibhokisi yechocolate oyirhalelayo.
Thatha ibhili ye-$1 namhlanje okanye ulinde ukuba atyelele kwixesha elizayo kwaye akufumanele iibhokisi ezimbini zetshokholethi.
Uya kuba nobunzima obungaphezulu kunoko unokubufumana namhlanje kunokuba unokubufumana kwixesha elizayo. Ke, ukhetho lwakho kukubambelela kwibhili ye-$.
Impendulo yakho apha ikhokelwa kukuqiniseka ngoku kunye nokungaqiniseki kwekamva. Ngapha koko, akukho bani waziyo ukuba umalume uya kuphinda atyelele nini, yaye akukho siqinisekiso sokuba uya kukhumbula ukuza nebhokisi enye yetshokolethi, singasathethi ke ezimbini, xa ephinda esiza.
Kwakhona, mhlawumbi ngekhe ndithande iitshokolethi kwixesha elizayo xa esiza kuba ndingena ebutsheni bam kwaye ndifuna ukuxakeka ndisakha laa Six Pack?
Nokuba siyintoni na isizathu, sinesicwangciso esinengqiqo kunye nengqiqo yokusebenza apha. Ukuhamba kwemali namhlanje kuthandeka kunokungena kwemali kwixesha elizayo.
2. Yintoni isaphulelo kwi-DCF?
Ubuhle bezemali kukuba akukho ndawo yefilosofi ngaphandle kokuba inokuchazwa ngokwezibalo. UBukhosi bezeMali (izifundiswa zangaphambili) zaxoxa malunga nendlela yokumisela ukuhamba kwemali okuthotyiweyo iminyaka. Ithiyori exhaphakileyo, emva kokuphonononga okuninzi, igxile kwingcinga yeendleko zamathuba.
Ndine-$ namhlanje endinako tyala imali kwaye ufumane i-$ 1.1 ngonyaka kamva. Ukuba le yinto elungileyo inokuxhomekeka kwinto enye endinokuyenza nge $ namhlanje.
Ndithi ndingayityala kwenye indawo kwaye ndifumane i-$ 1.2 ngonyaka kamva. Ngokwemvelo, ndiza kumisa ithuba lokuqala kumxholo wesibini. Kule meko, ithuba elilandelayo elingcono elikhoyo linezinga eliphezulu lokubuya kwaye andiyi kutyala imali yokuqala.
Ukuthetha ngokwemfundo, isaphulelo silinganiselo esifunekayo sembuyekezo evela kutyalo-mali oluvandlakanywayo. Le isenokuba yimbuyekezo yemarike ngokubanzi, isantya esingenamngcipheko, isantya esingenamngcipheko kunye neprimiyamu yeequity, okanye naluphi na olunye uphawu olufanelekileyo. Kuya kwahluka ngokusekelwe kwimeko.
3. I-DCF ingasetyenziselwa ukuxabisa ntoni?
I-DCF inezicelo ezininzi zehlabathi lokwenyani kwinqanaba loqingqo-maxabiso. Ezi ziquka kodwa aziphelelanga koku:
- UVandlakanyo lweProjekthi
- UVavanyo lweNkampani
- UVandlakanyo loTyalo-mali
- Ukuxatyiswa kwezindlu
- Ukuqeshisa Vs Thenga izigqibo
- Uhlenga-hlengiso kunye nokuVavanywa kweTyala eliXhazelekileyo
4. I-DCF – Khetha Umzekelo – uVandlakanyo loTyalo-mali
4.1. UVandlakanyo loTyalo-mali
Makhe sicinge ukuba umhlalutyi unikwe ezi metrics zilandelayo
- Ixabiso leSabelo sangoku - i-$ 50 ngesabelo ngasinye
- ISahlulo soNyaka ophelileyo – $5 isabelo ngasinye
- Izinga lokuKhula kwiSabelo – 12% ngonyaka
- umndilili Imakethi yesitokhwe Index Fund Return – 10%
Ukunikezelwa ngoku ngasentla, umhlalutyi uceliwe ukuba enze ixabiso elisekelwe kwi-DCF ukuvavanya utyalo-mali lwe-5 iminyaka yokubamba ixesha kunye nexabiso lempahla kwi-80 yesabelo ngasinye.
amanqaku:
- Utyalo-mali lokuqala luboniswa njenge-outflow, ngoko ke ama-parentheses angalunganga;
- Ingeniso yimali engenayo kwaye inyuswa ngonyaka ngamnye nge-12% - izinga lokukhula;
- Umba wesaphulelo ubalwa kusetyenziswa ifomula 1/(1+r)^n, apho r yi-10% ye-stock market. yeengxowa-mali imbuyekezo kwaye n lixesha (Unyaka 1 = 1; Unyaka 2 = 2 njl);
- I-NPV imele i-Net Present Value kwaye sisishwankathelo sokuqukuqela kwemali ethotyiweyo ukusuka kuNyaka woku-0 ukuya kuNyaka wesi-5;
- Ukuba i-NPV inethemba, utyalo-mali luyacetyiswa. Ukuba ibingalunganga, isigqibo sotyalo-mali besiya kuba kukwala ithuba. Ngengqiqo, umtyali-mali uya kuba ngcono xa etyala imali kwi-stock market index index.
4.2. UVavanyo lweNkampani
Ingqikelelo efanayo inokusetyenziswa kuXabiso lweNkampani ngokunjalo. Apha, makhe sicinge ukuba sinikwe olu lwazi lulandelayo:
- Ixabiso leSabelo sangoku - i-$ 50 ngesabelo ngasinye
- ISahlulo soNyaka ophelileyo – $5 isabelo ngasinye
- Izinga lokuKhula kwiSabelo – 3% ngonyaka
- Imbuyekezo yeNgxowa-mali yeSalathiso soMndilili weStock Market – 10%
- Lilonke inani leZabelo – 1,000,000
- I-Capitalization Market yangoku - $50,000,000
Ukuxabisa inkampani, siya kusebenzisa i-Gordon Growth Model (ebizwa ngokuba yi-Dividend Discount Model), inguqu ye-DCF.
Oku kumelwa yinxaki = P0 = D0*(1+g) / (rg)
phi:
- P0 = Ixabiso namhlanje
- D0= ISahlulo soNyaka ophelileyo
- g= Izinga lokuKhula
- r = Ireyithi efunekayo yokuBuyisa
Ukubethelela amanani ethu ngaphakathi;
- P0 = $5(1+0.03) / (0.10-0.03)
- P0= $73.57
Njengoko kunokuchazwa, ixabiso elifanelekileyo lesi sabelo yi-75.57 yeedola, kwaye okwangoku ayixabisekanga.
Uqikelelo lweNkampani luya kuba yi-75,570,000 yeedola (ixabiso leSabelo * Inani eliBalaseleyo leZabelo).
5. Uhlalutyo olubalulekileyo lwe-DCF njengeNgcaciso yoQingqo-maxabiso
5.1. Inzuzo
- Uhlalutyo oluneenkcukacha & olukwaziyo ukubandakanya ezona nkcukacha zegranular;
- Ivumela ukwenziwa koqingqo-maxabiso kunye nezigqibo ezizimeleyo ekuthelekisweni nazo kwimarike;
- Ivumela umntu ukuba aqhube ubuntununtunu bezinto eziphambili (ukukhula kweGDP, amazinga otshintshiselwano, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, njl.njl) kunye nokulinganisa indlela ezichaphazela ngayo ixabiso.
5.2. Ukungancedi
- Kucingelwa ukuba ukuqukuqela kwemali kuza kwenzeka ekupheleni kwexesha, akunjalo, njengoko ukuhamba kwemali kunokuphindaphinda. Nakwimeko yezabelo, inkampani inokwazisa ukuya kuthi ga kwizabelo ezi-4 ngonyaka wekhalenda kwaye inokwazisa ngezabelo ezikhethekileyo ngaphezulu koko;
- Uqikelelo lokuqukuqela kwemali, amazinga okukhula kunye neemeko zezaphulelo ezinokusetyenziswa luqikelelo olunokuthi lwenzeke okanye lungenzeki. Ngenxa yoko, kufanele kuthatyathwe ngenyameko enkulu ukuze kuphetshwe “inkunkuma phakathi; ukukhupha inkunkuma” ingxaki;
isiphelo
Njengoko ubona, i-DCF sisixhobo esinamandla seenjongo zokuxabisa. Ngokwam, into endiyithandayo ngale ndlela xa kuthelekiswa nabanye yingcinga eyixhasayo.
Ewe, kukho iingxaki ezimbalwa kwaye le ndlela ayisiyiyo imodeli eqinisekileyo nangayiphi na indlela.
Kungenxa yesi sizathu kanye ukuba abahlalutyi baxhomekeke kwiimodeli ezininzi zokuxabisa ngokusebenza, kwaye emva koko bathelekise kwaye bathathe i-avareji njengoqikelelo olungcono. Oko kuthethiweyo, ukuba ujonge iinkcukacha, le yeyona ndlela ilungileyo phaya.
Ndikunqwenelela ithamsanqa ngokubonisa ulwazi lwakho olutsha ngesihloko.
Ukuba unayo nayiphi na imibuzo okanye ufuna ukwazi ngakumbi, ndithumele umbuzo wakho kwitshaneli ye-FinChamps, kwaye ndiya kunyanzeleka ukuba ndincede.
Shiya iMpendulo