Ngakho-ke uzwile i-jargon yemakethe ezohlala impilo yakho yonke.
Izindaba ezimbi ukuthi uzolalela okuningi kwakho njengoba amagama amasha, ama-akhronimi, nemishwana ibhalwa futhi ingena ezincwadini zezezimali.
Ezinye zizoba nengqondo, kanti ezinye hhayi kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, futhi ngingakuqinisekisa lokhu, uma usuzwile igama elithi “imodeli yokulinganisa ye-DCF,” uzosala umangale futhi ubambe ongezansi.
Kwenzenjani? Isetshenziselwa ini?
Isetshenziswa kanjani kulokho okusetshenziselwa yona?
Okuhle? Ama-negative?
Hhayi-ke, ngilapha ukuze ngisize.
Lokhu okuthunyelwe okwanoma ubani ofuna ukuqonda i-DCF futhi angasali ebambe ongezansi ngokuzayo lapho ezwa othile esho lokhu ku-TV noma embuthanweni wokuzijabulisa.
Okungcono nokho, ngesikhathi sengiqedile ngalokhu, ngithemba ukuthi abanye benu bazobe beqiniseka ngokwanele ukuthi bajikijele leli binzana futhi lizwakale njengengcweti kwezezimali.
Ulungile? Kuhle. Asambe.
1. Yini i-DCF?
I-DCF imele ukungena kwemali okunesaphulelo. Le nqubo yokulinganisa yakhelwe phezu kwethiyori ezwakalayo yokuthi i-$ of cash flow namuhla iyigugu kune-$ of cash flow esikhathini esizayo.
Buyela emuva usemncane kwafika umalume wakho ophuma ngaphandle kwedolobha ezokuvakashela futhi wakunikeza ukukhetha ngoba akazange alethe ibhokisi lamahhala likashokoledi olifisayo.
Thatha ibhili lika-$1 namuhla noma umlinde ukuthi avakashele ngokuzayo futhi akutholele amabhokisi amabili kashokoledi.
Uzoba nesisindo esingaphezu kwalokho ongakuthola namuhla kunalokho ongakuthola esikhathini esizayo. Ngakho-ke, ukukhetha kwakho ukubambelela kuleyo $ bill.
Impendulo yakho lapha iqondiswa isiqiniseko sesikhathi samanje nokungaqiniseki kwekusasa. Phela akekho owaziyo ukuthi umalume uzophinde avakashe nini, futhi asikho isiqiniseko sokuthi uzokhumbula ukuletha ibhokisi elilodwa likashokoledi, ingasaphathwa eyesibili, uma efika.
Futhi, mhlawumbe ngeke ngibathande oshokoledi ngokuzayo lapho efika ngoba ngingena ebhodweni lami futhi ngifuna ukuba matasa ngokwakha leyo Six Pack?
Noma ngabe yisiphi isizathu, sinohlaka oluphusile noluphusile esizosebenza ngalo lapha. Ukugeleza kwemali namuhla kudlula ukugeleza kwemali esikhathini esizayo.
2. Siyini Isaphulelo ku-DCF?
Ubuhle bezezimali ukuthi ayikho indawo yefilosofi ngaphandle kokuthi ingachazwa ngokwezibalo. I-Lordships of Finance (izifundiswa zakuqala) zaphikisana ngokuthi zingamodela kanjani ukuhamba kwemali okunesaphulelo iminyaka. Ithiyori ebusayo, ngemva kokucutshungulwa okuningi, yagxila embonweni wezindleko zamathuba.
Ngine $ namuhla engingakwazi ukutshala futhi uthole u-$1.1 ngonyaka kamuva. Ukuthi lokhu kuyisivumelwano esihle kuzoncika ekutheni yini enye engingayenza nge-$ namuhla.
Ithi ngingayitshala kwenye indawo futhi ngithole u-$1.2 ngonyaka kamuva. Ngokwemvelo, ngizobeka ithuba lokuqala kumongo wesibili. Kulesi simo, ithuba elilandelayo elingcono kakhulu elitholakalayo linezinga eliphezulu lembuyiselo futhi ngeke ngitshale elokuqala.
Ukuze ukhulume ngokwezemfundo, isici sesaphulelo isilinganiso esidingekayo sembuyiselo evela kutshalomali oluhlaziywayo. Lokhu kungaba imbuyiselo yemakethe evamile, izinga elingenabungozi, izinga elingenabungozi kanye neprimiyamu ye-equity, nanoma iyiphi enye ibhentshimakhi efanelekile. Kuzohluka ngokuya ngesimo.
3. Yini i-DCF engasetshenziswa ukwazisa?
I-DCF inezinhlelo zokusebenza eziningi zomhlaba wangempela kumkhakha wokulinganisa. Lokhu kufaka phakathi kodwa akukhawulelwe kokuthi:
- Ukuhlolwa Kwephrojekthi
- Ukulinganisa Kwenkampani
- Ukuhlola Ukutshalwa Kwezimali
- Ukulinganiswa Kwezakhiwo
- Ukuqashisa vs Thenga Izinqumo
- Ukuhlela Kabusha Nokulinganisa Izikweletu Ezicindezelekile
4. I-DCF - Khetha Isibonelo - Ukuhlola Ukutshalwa Kwezimali
4.1. Ukuhlola Ukutshalwa Kwezimali
Ake sicabange ukuthi umhlaziyi wethulwa ngamamethrikhi alandelayo
- Intengo Yamanje Yokwabelana - $50 ngesheya ngalinye
- I-Dividend yonyaka odlule - $5 ngesheya ngalinye
- Izinga Lokukhula Ku-dividend - 12% ngonyaka
- Isilinganiso I-Stock Market I-Index Fund Return - 10%
Kwethulwa nalokhu okungenhla, umhlaziyi uyacelwa ukuthi enze ukulinganisa okusekelwe ku-DCF ukuze ahlole ukutshalwa kwezimali isikhathi esiyiminyaka emi-5 ngenani lesitoko ku-$80 ngesheya ngalinye.
amanothi:
- Ukutshalwa kwezimali kokuqala kuboniswa njengokuphumayo, yingakho kubakaki abangemuhle;
- Isabelomali siwukheshi futhi sikhuphuka unyaka nonyaka ngo-12% - izinga lokukhula;
- Isici sesaphulelo sibalwa kusetshenziswa ifomula 1/(1+r)^n, lapho r iyimakethe yamasheya engu-10%. isikhwama sezinkomba ukubuya futhi n isikhathi (Unyaka 1 = 1; Unyaka 2 = 2 njll);
- I-NPV imele i-Net Present Value futhi iyingqikithi yesaphulelo semali ephumayo kusukela onyakeni 0 kuya kuNyaka wesi-5;
- Uma i-NPV ivuma, ukutshalwa kwezimali kuyanconywa. Ukube bekungekuhle, isinqumo sokutshala imali bekuzoba ukwenqaba leli thuba. Ngokunengqondo, umtshali-zimali angaba ngcono uma etshala imali ku-stock market index index.
4.2. Ukulinganisa Kwenkampani
Umqondo ofanayo ungase usetshenziswe Ekulinganisweni KweNkampani futhi. Lapha, ake sicabange ukuthi sethulwe ngolwazi olulandelayo:
- Intengo Yamanje Yokwabelana - $50 ngesheya ngalinye
- I-Dividend yonyaka odlule - $5 ngesheya ngalinye
- Izinga Lokukhula Ku-dividend - 3% ngonyaka
- I-Average Stock Market Index Fund Return - 10%
- Inani Eliphelele Lamasheya - 1,000,000
- Imali Yemakethe Yamanje - $50,000,000
Ukuze sazise inkampani, sizosebenzisa i-Gordon Growth Model (ebizwa nangokuthi i-Dividend Discount Model), okuhlukile kwe-DCF.
Lokhu kuvezwa isibalo = P0 = D0*(1+g) / (rg)
kuphi:
- P0 = Inani Namuhla
- D0= Isabelomali sonyaka odlule
- g= Izinga Lokukhula
- r = Izinga Elidingekayo Lokubuyisela
Sifaka izinombolo zethu;
- P0 = $5(1+0.03) / (0.10-0.03)
- P0= $73.57
Njengoba kungase kucatshangwe, inani elifanelekile lalesi sabelo ngu-$75.57, futhi okwamanje alinakulinganiswa.
Isilinganiso seNkampani singaba ngu-$75,570,000 (Inani Lokwabelana * Inombolo Evelele Yamasheya).
5. Ukuhlaziywa Okubalulekile kwe-DCF Njengesu Lokulinganisa
I-5.1. Izinzuzo
- Ukuhlaziya okuningiliziwe & okukwazi ukuhlanganisa imininingwane eyimbudumbudu kakhulu;
- Ivumela ukukhiqiza izilinganiso nezinqumo ezingaqhathaniseka nezimakethe;
- Ivumela umuntu ukuthi aqhube ukuzwela kwezinto ezibalulekile (ukukhula kwe-GDP, amanani okushintshaniswa kwemali, ukwehla kwamandla emali, njll) futhi alinganise ukuthi akuthinta kanjani ukulinganisa.
5.2. Okubi
- Icabanga ukuthi ukugeleza kwemali kuzokwenzeka ekupheleni kwesikhathi, akunjalo, njengoba ukugeleza kwemali kungase kuphindeke. Ngisho nasendabeni yezinzuzo, inkampani ingase imemezele amadividendi angafika kwangu-4 ngonyaka wekhalenda futhi ingamemezela izinzuzo ezikhethekile phezu kwalokho;
- Ukuqagela kokugeleza kwemali, amanani okukhula kanye nezici zesaphulelo ongazisebenzisa kuyizilinganiso kuphela okungenzeka noma zingenzeki. Ngakho, kumelwe kuqashelwe kakhulu ukuze kugwenywe “udoti phakathi; khipha udoti” inkinga;
Isiphetho
Njengoba ubona, i-DCF iyithuluzi elinamandla lezinjongo zokulinganisa. Ngokwami, engikuthandayo ngale ndlela uma kuqhathaniswa nezinye wumqondo owusekelayo.
Yebo, kunezihibe ezimbalwa futhi le ndlela ayiyona imodeli eqondile nganoma iyiphi indlela.
Kungenxa yalesi sizathu impela ukuthi abahlaziyi bathembele kumamodeli amaningi okulinganisa ekusebenzeni, bese beqhathanisa futhi bathathe ama-avareji njengezilinganiso ezihamba phambili. Lokho okushiwoyo, uma ufuna imininingwane, lena inketho engcono kakhulu lapho.
Ngikufisela inhlanhla ngokubonisa ulwazi lwakho osanda kuluthola ngesihloko.
Uma unemibuzo noma ufuna ukwazi okwengeziwe, ngithumele umbuzo wakho esiteshini se-FinChamps, futhi ngizobophezeleka kakhulu ukusiza.
shiya impendulo