Posautsidwa ndi kusefukira kwa madzi, kukwera kwa mitengo, kusakhazikika kwa ndale, ndi kusokonekera kwachuma, Pakistan yatsala pang’ono kukhalanso Manda Azachuma ku South Asia.
Pofika 2022, Pakistan yadzaza ndi ngongole ya PKR 59.7 thililiyoni, yomwe ndizovuta kwambiri. 89.2% Padziko lonse la Pakistan Economy.
Mavuto azachuma ku Pakistan si chinthu chatsopano, ndipo kuyambira zaka 75 za ufulu wake, adakumana ndi mavuto angapo azachuma. IMF yokha yatulutsa Pakistan maulendo 13 m'zaka 35 zapitazi, ndipo ziwerengero ziwonjezekanso mtsogolomu.
Komabe, m'zaka zingapo zapitazi, zinthu zomwe zidabadwa zakula ndikupangitsa kuti mavuto azachuma aku Pakistan achuluke mwadzidzidzi.
Mwachitsanzo, pakhala kuwonjezeka kwa 25% kwa ngongole yonse kuyambira chaka chatha. Pomwe ngongole yonse yakunja yaku Pakistan idakwera mowopsa ndi 35% mchaka chimodzi.
Chifukwa chake, nkhaniyi iwunika makamaka kusayendetsedwa bwino kwachuma ku Pakistan m'zaka zaposachedwa komanso momwe zinthu zingapo zidapangitsa kuti chuma chake chifike pachimake.
Zimayambitsa
Ndizoyenera kumvetsetsa kuti zovuta zazachuma ku Pakistan sizinakhale zochitika zaposachedwa koma chitsiriziro cha mfundo zoyipa zachuma, chipwirikiti chandale, uchigawenga, chikhazikitso, ziphuphu zakubadwa, komanso ulamuliro wankhondo kwazaka zambiri zomwe zasanduka bomba lalikulu la chipale chofewa. Zomwe, ngati ziphulika, sizikhudza dziko lokha komanso dziko lapansi.
Koma chifukwa chiyani?
Kusakhazikika pa Ndale
Palibe boma lililonse m'mbiri ya Pakistan lomwe lamaliza udindo wake wonse, zomwe zikusonyeza kuti kusakhazikika kwa ndale kwakhala kofala kwambiri m'dzikoli. Izi zidapangitsa kuti dzikoli linyalanyazidwenso pa chitukuko ndi ndondomeko ya zachuma.
Zomwe zachitika posachedwa pakuchotsa Imran Khan zikugwirizana mwachindunji ndi chikhalidwe chandale zadziko komanso momwe boma limapangira zisankho.
monga ndale aku Pakistan makamaka amazungulira India ndipo maboma ndi osasinthika, amapanga zisankho zosatengera malingaliro abwino azachuma koma amavotera ndale zakubanki. Izi pamapeto pake zimakulitsa chiyembekezo chokhazikitsa ndondomeko yazachuma yanthawi yayitali kuti athe kuwongolera ngongole za miasma ndikusunga kukula kwachuma.
Chifukwa chake, Pakistan ndi chitsanzo cha buku la momwe kusakhazikika kwa ndale kungawononge kukula kwa dziko.
Chipembedzo Chokhazikika
Kupenda mbiriyakale, zitha kuwoneka kuti chikhalidwe cha ku Pakistan chokhazikika pazachipembedzo sichinalole kuti athyole miyambo yakale ndikuyambitsa mapangidwe amakono a Capital.
Chikhazikitso chomwecho chikugwiritsidwanso ntchito ndi Imran Khan ndi chipani chake, Tehreek-e-Insaaf, kupanga magawano, omwe angakhale msomali womaliza kuyambitsa nkhondo yapachiweniweni m'dzikolo.
Zotsatira zake, Asitikali atenga utsogoleri, ndipo anthu mamiliyoni ambiri adzakhudzidwa chifukwa cha ziwawa, njala, ndi uchigawenga.
Monga magulu achigawenga akunyumba monga Tehreek-e-Taliban tsopano akulimbirana mphamvu ku Pakistan, nkhondo yapachiweniweni sikanakhala mbali imodzi kapena ziwiri koma zambiri. Izi zikulirakuliranso ndi magulu a Liberation a Balochistan ndi Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa omwe akufuna kuchoka mdziko muno.
Zingawoneke ngati zosatheka. Komabe, zimene zachitika posachedwapa, kuphatikizapo kusefukira kwa madzi m’maderawa, chiwawa chosalekeza cha Asilikali, ndi kuphulitsa mabomba kosalekeza kochitidwa ndi magulu oukira boma, zikunena zosiyana.
Pobwerera ku chuma, kodi chuma chikanayenda bwanji kukanakhala kuti palibe dziko?
Ndale Zaulere ndi Zothandizira
Ndale za ufulu waulere zawonjezera kukakamiza chuma cha boma. Ma Subsidies apamwamba abweretsa vuto lalikulu ku boma lomwe lilipo ngati liyenera kusunga kutchuka pakati pa nzika kapena kuthetsa zaulere kuti zichepetse mavuto azachuma.
Ndiye, izi zimagwira bwanji?
Boma lomwe lili pampando limapereka ndalama zothandizira ndalama zambiri ndipo limatenga ngongole zakunja kuti zithandizire kuvota kwa anthu. Pamene boma latsopano likubwera, liri kale ndi vuto lalikulu la ngongole. Koma kuti apitirize kutchuka, sangachotse ndalama zothandizira ndipo motero kutenga ngongole zambiri kuti mwanjira ina asunthire magudumu achuma cha dzimbiri ndikupewa mavuto azachuma pakadali pano.
Ndipo loop ikupitilira….
Zotsatira zake, ngongole zakunja za Pakistan, kupatula China, zafika kale $ 65 biliyoni, ndi ndalama zotsika mtengo monga chitumbuwa pamwamba.
Mukuwona, ngongoleyo siigwiritsidwa ntchito pakukula kwachuma, koma ngati piritsi lothandizira kukopa chuma mwanjira ina. Ndipo ichi ndi chifukwa chimodzi chakutsika kwachuma, ngakhale pakuwonjezeka kwa ngongole.
Kusokoneza Asilikali
Popeza kuti ulamuliro wonse uli m’manja mwa Gulu Lankhondo, zisankho zazikulu sizimatengera zosowa za anthu koma zankhondo. Izi zikuwonekera kuchokera pakugawidwa kwakukulu kwa atsogoleri a bajeti kupita kunkhondo (17.5%).
M'malo mwake, kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pankhondo komanso kubweza ngongole (29.5%) pa bajeti ya 2022-23 ndizovuta kwambiri. 47% za bajeti yonse.
Zikutanthauza kuti pafupifupi theka la ndalama za Bajeti zimaperekedwa kuti ziwoneke ngati sizikupindulitsa ngati tipenda ndalama zokhazokha.
Kuchuluka kwina kwakukulu kumalowetsedwa mwachindunji muzachuma kudzera mu zothandizira ndi zaulere, zomwe zimadetsa nkhawa.
China
Popeza nthawi zambiri amatsutsidwa kuti ndondomeko ya ku China ya Ngongole yakhala ikuyambitsa dziko la Pakistani, tiyenera kuyang'ana mozama pa nkhaniyi ndikumvetsetsa kuti dziko la China ndilomwe likuyambitsa mavuto azachuma omwe akupita kale m'dzikoli.
Chifukwa chiyani?
China idapereka ngongole yokulirapo pa chiwongola dzanja chokwera kwambiri pomanga China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) pansi pa projekiti yake yayikulu ya BRI. Pansi pa BRI, ntchito zonse za 26, kuphatikiza madamu, misewu, milatho, ndi Gwadar Port, zikumangidwa ndi makampani aku China ndi antchito kuzungulira dzikolo.
Chochititsa chidwi n'chakuti, popeza palibe makampani aku Pakistani kapena nzika zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito mwachindunji, ndalamazo zikubwerera ku China, ndipo palibe chopindulitsa ponena za ntchito kapena maubwino ogwirizana omwe akuchitika kwa nzika za Pakistani. M’malo mwake, ntchitozi zabweretsa mavuto aakulu kwa anthu okhala mozungulira ntchitozi.
Choncho, njira ya China ya Belt and Road ikuwoneka kuti yalephera, chifukwa ntchito zazikulu zomwe zili pansi pa BRI sizinathe kupanga ndalama kapena kutha pa nthawi yake monga momwe amayembekezera.
Kuphatikiza apo, popeza ngongole zimatengedwa pa chiwongola dzanja chokwera kwambiri poyerekeza ndi miyezo yapadziko lonse lapansi, ngongole zakunja za Pakistan zakweranso. Tsopano Pakistan ikutenga ngongole pamitengo yokwera kwambiri kuti ibweze ngongole zakale.
Loop ina ikupitilira….
Nkhani ina yokhudzana ndi kusagwirizana kwa momwe chuma chikuyendera m'madera onse. The Heart Of Pakistan, makamaka chigawo cha Punjab ndi Sindh, ndi otukuka kwambiri poyerekeza ndi Balochistan ndi KPK.
Chifukwa chiyani?
Kukhazikika kwachipembedzo ndi tsankho zatsitsa anthu a m'maderawa, omwe makamaka amakhala a Ahmediya ndi Pashtun, kuti akhale nzika zachiwiri m'dziko lawo.
Chitetezo ndi Uchigawenga
Monga momwe ndalama zakunja zikukhudzidwira, kusakhazikika kwa ndale ndi kuchepa kwa chitetezo ndizomwe zimakhumudwitsa kwambiri kuti amalonda akunja aziyika ndalama m'dzikoli. Kupatula apo, malingaliro olimbikitsa nkhondo a Pakistan kulinga ku India apangitsa mabiliyoni a madola kusokonekera.
Chinanso chokhumudwitsa ndi kuukira mobwerezabwereza nzika zakunja. Izi zitha kutsimikiziridwa ndi zigawenga zomwe zachitika posachedwa ku China ndi Sri Lankan Nationals.
Kuphatikiza apo, ndi umphawi womwe ukukulirakulira, Pakistan, yomwe ili kale fakitale ya Zigawenga, ikhoza kupanga magulu achigawenga omwe anthu ambiri alibe chosowa. Zidzapangitsanso mabungwe omwe alipo kukhala amphamvu, omwe ISIS-Khorasan ndi omwe amakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi dera lonselo.
Ndi Pakistan pamndandanda wa imvi wa FATF, kuchuluka kwa ndalama zakunja kukukulirakulira.
Kufa Ndalama
Kusintha kwamalo osinthanitsa a Pakistan rupee mpaka 220 Dollar US kwa nthawi yayitali ikuwonekera bwino patsamba lino la mbiri yamtengo wosinthana . Zotsatira zake, Pakistani Rupee yakhala ndalama zoipitsitsa kwambiri ku South Asia, ndikugwa pafupifupi 16.5% mu June wokha.
Zinthu zafika poipa kwambiri chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo ya zinthu padziko lonse lapansi. Ku Pakistan, kukwera kwa mitengo kwafika 300% chifukwa cha kusefukira kwa madzi ndi IMF. Ndipo ngati, monga zikuwonekera, chuma chapadziko lonse lapansi chigwera pansi, Pakistan sikhala ndi mpweya wambiri wopumira.
Tsopano, kubwerera ku funso loyambirira chifukwa chake kulephera kwa Pakistan kudzakhudzanso dziko lapansi ndi India. Pakistan pokhala dziko lokhala ndi zida za nyukiliya zimapangitsa kuti likhale lalikulu kwambiri kuti lilephere. Ngati zida za nyukiliya zifika m'manja mwa Zigawenga, dziko likhoza kuwonongeka kosatheka.
Chikhalidwe Chamakono
Dziko la Pakistan lavutika ndi kusefukira kwa madzi kuyambira 2010, zomwe zapangitsa kuti kukwera kwa mitengo komanso kukwera kwa ndalama ku Pakistan Rupee kuvutike kwambiri. Boma layerekeza Kutayika kwa $40 biliyoni kuchokera ku kusefukira kwa madzi, ndipo mtengo wake ukhoza kuwonjezereka. Anthu, omwe akudwala kale mavuto azachuma, tsopano zadzaza ndi kusefukira kwa madzi ndi kukwera kwa mitengo.
Pankhani yosungira ndalama zakunja. Pakistan ili ndi ndalama zokwana madola 2 biliyoni zokha, zomwe sizingalipire kwa milungu 5 kuchokera kunja. Vutoli likuwonekeranso kuchokera ku Kuwonongeka Kwambiri kwa Malipiro ($ Biliyoni 15Kusintha kwamalo osinthanitsa a Pakistan rupee mpaka Pakistan rupee kwa nthawi yayitali ikuwonekera bwino patsamba lino la mbiri yamtengo wosinthana .
Kupitilira apo, nkhani yofunikira ikuwonekeranso pakusoweka kwa ndondomeko yazachuma yanthawi yayitali. Mwachitsanzo, malamulo amisonkho ku Pakistan amasintha pakadutsa miyezi iwiri kapena itatu iliyonse ndi akuluakulu amisonkho osachita bwino, zomwe zikuwonekerabe chifukwa chakuti anthu ambiri mdziko muno samakhomabe misonkho.
Kuphatikiza apo, dzikolo latsekeredwa m'misika yayikulu yayikulu chifukwa chakufalikira kwakukulu kwa 16% pakati pa PKR yotsika mtengo ndi Dollar. Izi zidapangitsa kuti ndalama zakunja zisakhale zocheperako, ma FDIs, ndi magwero ena olowera ndalama zakunja.
Chochititsa chidwi n’chakuti, dzikoli lasandukanso dziko losautsa chakudya m’mayiko ena monga tirigu, tiyi, ndi shuga.
Pakadali pano, kuwukira kwa Russia ku Ukraine kwakhala mchere wothira pachilonda ku Pakistan. Kuwukiraku kwadzetsa kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta padziko lonse lapansi ndi zinthu. Zikutanthauza kuti tsopano Pakistan iyenera kulipira ndalama zambiri kuti igule mafuta kapena katundu wofanana kuchokera kunja.
Ndipo popeza ndale za Pakistan zimakonda kwambiri zaulere komanso zothandizira, boma silinawonjezere mitengo pambuyo pake, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti chuma cha dzikolo chilemeke.
Komabe, ndi chivomerezo cha IMF pa ngongoleyi, Pakistan yavomereza zinthu zina ndikuchepetsa ndalama zothandizira. Komabe, boma liyenera kukwaniritsa zochulukirapo kuti lilandire gawo lina la phukusili.
M'tsogolo Ndi Chiyani?
Tsopano funso nlakuti, nchiyani kwenikweni chikuchitikira Pakistan?
Monga momwe katswiri wazachuma waku Pakistani Atif Mian adati, dzikolo likukulitsa kukula kwake potenga ngongole zazikulu. Mwachitsanzo, Pakistan idapereka projekiti yake yomanga ku China pansi pa China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) potenga ngongole kwa iyo. Tsopano chisankho chili ndi aku China, ndipo ndalama zonse zikabwerera ku China, sizisiya mwayi wochulukitsa kuchuluka. Ndizosiyana ndi zomwe timatcha trickle-down economics.
Ichi ndichifukwa chake nthumwi zakukula kwakhala mdierekezi pamavuto aku Pakistan.
Kuphatikiza apo, kusakhazikika kwa ndale ku Pakistani kuyenera kusamalidwa kuti muwone nthawi yokhazikika. Andale ayenera kusiya zaulele ndi ndale zachipembedzo ndikuyang'ana pakumwa mapiritsi owawa kuti apeze chithandizo chamsanga.
Monga momwe akatswiri azachuma ambiri ndi opanga mfundo adanenera, kusinthaku kudzakhala kowawa.
Ndiye tinganene kuti kusakhazikika kwa ndale kwadzetsa dziko la Pakistan?
Tiyeni timvetse izi; mavuto azachuma ayambika chifukwa cha kutha kwa zochitika zosasangalatsa zomwe zafalikira kwa nthawi yayitali ndipo zimagwirizanitsidwa mwachindunji kapena mosagwirizana ndi chingwe chimodzi cha Kusakhazikika kwa Ndale ndi kusakwanira.
Kuno kusakhazikika kwa ndale sikungochitika m’maboma okha, koma mabungwe onse a ndale, kuphatikizapo okhazikika, afika pachimake pa zimene tikuwona lerolino.
Lingaliro apa ndikuti mabungwe andale ndi azachuma a Extractive ali pamtima pakupanga dziko lililonse. Mawuwa afotokozedwa mwatsatanetsatane m’buku lakuti “Why Nations Fail?” zomwe zimapereka mbiri yozama ya momwe mayiko ena adatulukira ndikulephera.
Kuyang'ana Pakistan, kunena kuti maboma ali ndi udindo sangathe kutengedwa ngati maziko a mfundo yakuti kusakhazikika kwa ndale ndi chifukwa chachikulu cha mavuto azachuma. Ziphuphu ndi kusachita bwino zomwe zili m'mabungwe onse zadya maziko a dziko.
Ngakhale IMF yalengeza phukusi la 14 la Pakistan la $ Biliyoni 1.1 mwa $4 biliyoni, mfundo zazikulu zaulamuliro sizikugwirizanabe ndi kusintha kwakukulu kwachuma ndi kukonza.
Ngongole ya IMF imabweranso ndi zinthu. Bungweli lapempha boma kuti likweze mitengo yamafuta ndi kuchepetsa ndalama zothandizira boma kuti lipititse patsogolo chuma chawo, zomwe zapangitsa kuti boma likumane ndi mkwiyo wa nzika. Izi zikhudzanso nzika zomwe zakhudzidwa kale ndi kusefukira kwa madzi kosalekeza.
Pakistan ilibe zisankho zambiri chifukwa ogwirizana nawo azikhalidwe, kuphatikiza Saudi Arabia, UAE, ndi China, sakufuna kuwonjezera thandizo lazachuma.
Chifukwa chake, chikhala chisankho chovuta kwa boma. Ngakhale bajeti yaposachedwa yachepetsa thandizo la gasi ndi mafuta, zambiri ziyenera kuchitika.
Ngati Pakistan ikufuna kuchitira umboni china chake chogwirika, zikatero, gulu lake lankhondo siliyenera kusokoneza thandizo lakunja ndi thandizo ku cholinga chawo. Komanso, pokhala dziko lachinyengo kwambiri, kuyenera kuwonetseredwa poyera kuti pakhale kugawa kofanana kwa chithandizo ndi ndondomeko m'dziko lonselo.
Pakadali pano, zomwe zikuwonekera ndikuti zinthu ku Pakistan zipitilirabe, mwina zikuipiraipira. Kutsika kwa mitengo kudzafika pachimake chatsopano, chifukwa IMF idzaonetsetsa kuti olamulira akukwaniritsa zofunikira.
Tsoka lililonse lachilengedwe lomwe lingasinthe mawonekedwe a dziko kuchokera ku satelayiti lidzakhala ndi zotsatira za nthawi yayitali. Ndi 33 anthu miliyoni, kuphatikizapo ana 16 miliyoni, m'maboma 118 omwe akhudzidwa ndi kusefukira kwa madzi, ziwerengerozi sizidzatha posachedwa, ndipo kukonza zowonongeka kudzatenga ndalama zambiri ndi nthawi.
Pamene kusefukira kwa madzi kwakhudza madera osauka kwambiri ku Pakistan, pali mwayi waukulu wa kukwera kwa zigawenga ndi magulu odzipatula.
Kwa asitikali, mu Disembala 2022, utsogoleri wankhondo uyenera kusintha. Komabe, popeza asitikali adakulitsa mphamvu zawo m'magawo onse, palibe paliponse pomwe angalole utsogoleri wademokalase.
Ndi kuchuluka kwa anthu okwana 220 miliyoni, chofunikira kudziwa ndikuti dziko lalikulu ngati Pakistan, kapena Russia, limabweretsa gawo lalikulu pazachuma padziko lonse lapansi. Ichi ndichifukwa chake utsogoleri wapadziko lonse sungathe kunyalanyaza njovu mchipindamo.
Osati nthawi ino!
Ndi kukwera kwa mitengo komwe kukufika ku 300% ku Pakistan yomwe idasefukira, dzikolo lili ndi njira yayitali yoti lipite.
Mavuto azachuma ku Pakistan sali ofanana ndi a Sri Lanka. Chifukwa chake ndi chakuti pamene dziko lokhala ndi anthu ochuluka, pamphepete mwa kugwa, liri ndi zida za nyukiliya ndipo liri chiberekero cha uchigawenga, maiko oyandikana nawo ndi dziko lonse lapansi, silingathe kunyalanyaza kukhalapo kwake komwe kuli kufa.
Siyani Mumakonda