Pakati pa mikangano yandale komanso zionetsero zomwe zafalikira m'dziko lonselo, momwe chuma cha Brazil sichikuyenda bwino chaka chino. Chiyembekezo cha kukula kwa Brazil chikhalabe pa 0.8% mu 2023, chomwe chili chotsika kwambiri kuposa chaka chatha.
Dziko lomwe lili ndi mbiri yamavuto azachuma lakumananso ndi vuto pakukula kwake chifukwa cha zinthu zingapo zandale komanso zachuma zomwe zikuchitika mkati ndi kunja kwa dzikolo.
Zionetsero, kukwera kwa inflation padziko lonse lapansi, nkhondo ya Russia ndi Ukraine komanso kulimbikitsa kwa dola ya US kwasokoneza kwambiri kukula kwa ntchito ku Brazil, kuwononga ndalama kwa ogula, malipiro enieni komanso mabizinesi m'magawo onse.
Komabe, dziko la Brazil lidaona chiwonjezeko chokwera mu Marichi 2023 kwa nthawi yoyamba kuyambira Okutobala 2022, mwina chifukwa cha dongosolo latsopano lazachuma komanso kukwera kwachuma chonse, zomwe zikuwonetsa kuti chuma chikuyenda bwino.
Nkhaniyi ifotokoza mozama momwe chuma cha Brazil chilili komanso zomwe zikubwera kudziko lachisanu lalikulu padziko lonse lapansi.
Zimayambitsa
Chuma cha Brazil chikuyembekezeka kuchepa kuchokera pa 3% kukula mu 2022 kufika pa 0.8% mu 2023, ndipo zinthu zingapo zomwe zidaseweredwa zidapangitsa kugwa kotereku.
Kuchepetsa Ntchito
Pakhala chiwonjezeko chachikulu pakuchepa kwa kusowa kwa ntchito mdziko muno pomwe chuma chatsika kuyambira Covid-19.
Cacikulu ulova idakwera kufika pa 8.6% mu February 2023 kuchoka pa 7.9% mu Disembala 2022, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti anthu 1.5 miliyoni achotse ntchito mu Novembala 2022. Zotsatira zake, malipiro enieni a ogwira ntchito adatsikanso koyamba mu February 2023 kuyambira Epulo 2022.
Chiwongola dzanja Chapamwamba
The Central Bank ya ku Brazil yakhala ikuchulukitsa chiwongola dzanja kuti ichotse kukwera kwa mitengo. Komabe, izi zawonjezera mtengo wobwereketsa kwa mabizinesi ndikuchepetsanso kuwononga kwa ogula.
Anthu tsopano akukonda kwambiri kusunga ndalama chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo, kuchepa kwa malipiro komanso palibe chitetezo cha ntchito. Chiwongola dzanja chapano chili pa 13.75% ndipo chakhala chimodzimodzi kuyambira Ogasiti 2022.
Chiwopsezo cha Outlook
Pankhani ya ndalama, chiwongola dzanja chambiri ku Brazil, kuchepa kwa ndalama za ogula komanso chipwirikiti chandale zawonjezera ngozi kwa osunga ndalama pamsika. Mwachitsanzo, dziko la Brazil lili pa nambala 91 mwa mayiko 153 malinga ndi maiko GlobalData Country Risk Index.
Ziwerengero za dzikolo (49.4 mwa 100) ndizokwera kuposa za Latin America (48.6) ndi World Average (45). Komabe, zikafika pachiwopsezo chakukula kwachuma komanso chikhalidwe komanso kuchuluka kwa anthu, Brazil ikuchitabe bwino kuposa Latin America.
Mavuto a Zandale
Mu Januware 2023, ziwonetsero zazikulu zidayamba pakati pa magulu a Purezidenti wakale Bolsonaro ndi Purezidenti wapano, Luiz Lula da Silva.
Lula adapambana zisankho ndi malire pang'ono mu Okutobala 2022, koma zotsatira zake sizinavomerezedwe ndi a Bolsanaro, zomwe zidayambitsa mkwiyo pakati pa omutsatira ndikupangitsa zipolowe komanso kulanda katundu ku likulu la Brazil, Brasilia.
Ngakhale kuti zionetserozo zayimitsidwa tsopano, mavuto azachuma adzaonedwa ngati mkwiyo pakati pa anthu omwe akuvutika kale ndi kukwera kwa mitengo ndi kusowa kwa ntchito.
Mbali Yoyera
Kukwera mu Tourism
Malinga ndi World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), makampani okopa alendo ndiwo adachita nawo 6% ya GDP yaku Brazil mu 2021 ndipo idapanga 1 pa ntchito 11 zilizonse mdziko muno.
Pambuyo pa Covid-19 komanso chipwirikiti chaposachedwa, ntchito zokopa alendo ku Brazil zakhudzidwa kwambiri m'zaka zingapo zapitazi.
Izi zikuwoneka kuti zikusintha pamene chuma chikutseguka, ndipo akuyembekezeka kuti dziko la Brazil lidzawona kuwonjezeka kwa apaulendo kuchokera ku 2.22 miliyoni mu 2021 kufika pa 3 miliyoni mu 2023. Ndalamazo zikuyembekezeka kufika $ 16.36 Biliyoni mu 2023 pakukula kwa chaka 3.80%.
Kuchulukitsa Kutumiza kunja
Malingana ndi Zambiri Padziko Lonse, chuma cha Brazil chikuyembekezeka kukula bwino kuposa anzawo aku Latin America. Mwachitsanzo, Argentina ndi Chile akuyembekezeka kukula pa 0% ndi -0.6% motsatira chaka chino.
Chiwopsezo chokwera chikuyembekezeredwa chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja pomwe chuma cha China chikutseguka, chomwe chimapangitsa 30% ya zinthu zonse zaku Brazil zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja.
Chifukwa cha Nkhondo ya Russia-Ukraine, kutumizidwa kunja kwa zakudya zofunika, kuphatikizapo shuga, soya, mafuta odyedwa ndi zina zotero, zidzakwera pamene zikukonzekera kudzaza kusiyana komwe kunapangidwa chifukwa cha nkhondo. Dziko la Brazil ndilo kale lomwe limagulitsa kwambiri soya kunja, ndipo chaka chino, lapezanso zokolola zambiri.
Kuchepetsa Kukwera kwa Ndalama
Dola yolimbikitsa komanso kuchepa kwa chakudya chofunikira chifukwa cha nkhondo ya Russia-Ukraine yadzetsa kukwera kwa inflation padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo Brazil nayonso.
Banki Yaikulu yaku Brazil, Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), ikuyesera kuchepetsa kukwera kwa mitengo mwa kukweza chiwongola dzanja kuchokera ku 2021, kale kuposa chuma chilichonse chachikulu.
Ndondomeko yamakono ya BCB ndi 13.75% yomwe siinasinthe kuyambira August 2022. Chifukwa cha ndondomekozi, kukwera kwamtengo wapatali, kupatula chakudya ndi mphamvu, kwatsika mpaka 7.3% mu March 2023 kuchokera ku 10.9% mu June. 2022.
Monga tikudziwira, malipiro enieni akuchepa, zomwe zachititsa kuti kuchepa kwa ndalama kuwonongeke, zomwe zimapangitsa kuchepa kwa inflation. Choncho, pamene inflation ikuchepa, yachititsa kuti anthu azikhulupirira kwambiri, zomwe ndi chizindikiro chabwino cha chuma.
Kupititsa patsogolo Fiscal Framework
Boma lakhala likuvutika kuti likhazikitse ndondomeko yake yazachuma kuyambira Covid-19 chifukwa lidaganiza zothandizira ndalama za anthu ambiri ndikuchepetsa nkhawa za anthu.
Chotsatira chake, Boma lidasowa 4.5% ya GDP yake, pomwe ngongole yonse inali yofanana ndi 70% pa GDP yake.
Kupititsa patsogolo kayendetsedwe kazachuma kumapangitsa kuti ndalama zisamayende bwino ndikuwonetsetsa kutsika kwa deficit ndi ngongole m'dziko lonselo. Ngakhale ikufunikabe kuvomerezedwa ndi Congress, ndikuyenda kolandirika kuti ndalama zake zizikhazikika 2025.
Ndalama Zakunja
Mu 2022, Brazil idatsala pang'ono kuwirikiza ndalama zake Zakunja Zakunja kufika $90.6 biliyoni, pomwe gawo lalikulu lidalowa gawo lamphamvu ndiukadaulo. Panthawi ya Mliri, Makampani adakonda Brazil chifukwa cha ndalama zawo chifukwa chotengera intaneti komanso zida zamakono.
Chifukwa cha kusamvana komwe kukukulirakulira pakati pa US ndi China, dziko la Brazil lafika pomwe makampani aku US akusintha magawo awo ogwirira ntchito ndi kupanga kuchokera ku China kupita kumayiko ena, kuphatikiza Brazil. Momwemonso, makampani aku China adasamutsira ntchito zawo ku Brazil chifukwa chowunikiridwa kwambiri ndi Boma la US pakuwopseza akazitape ndi machitidwe ogwirizana nawo.
Kukula kwa dziko lonse kudakali kochepa chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo komanso chiwongoladzanja chokhazikitsidwa ndi BCB, zomwe zimapangitsa kuchepa kwa ndalama. Komabe, kukula kwa nthawi yayitali kumakhalabe kolimbikitsa, ndipo kutsika kwa mitengo kukafika ku Central Bank, kudzachepetsa mitengo yake, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti dzikoli likhale lokwera.
Kutsiliza
Pomwe chuma chapakhomo chikukulirakulirabe pang'onopang'ono, pali chiyembekezo choti kukula kwa dziko la Brazil kuyenera kuchitika kumapeto kwa chaka chino.
Izi zidzachitika panthawi yomwe chuma chachikulu padziko lapansi chikuyembekezeka kutsika chifukwa cha kusokonekera kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi.
Komabe, ndondomeko za Boma zomwe zimagwirizana ndi kumanzere ndi ndondomeko zaulere zikhoza kukhala fupa la mkangano pakukwaniritsa bwino ndondomeko yatsopano ya zachuma ngati itavomerezedwa bwino.
Dziko lomwe lili ndi chuma cha $ 1.89 thililiyoni lingathe kuchoka ku mphamvu zachuma ndikuwona kukwera pakukula kwake ngati ndale zapakhomo zikukhalabe zokhazikika komanso ndondomeko zomveka zozikidwa pa zizindikiro zachuma m'malo motsatira njira za anthu zomwe zikugwiritsidwa ntchito bwino.
Siyani Mumakonda