Yaparadzwa nemafashamo, kukwira kwemitengo, kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika, uye kusatarisirwa zvakanaka kwehupfumi, Pakistan yave pedyo nekuzova imwe Economic Graveyard yeSouth Asia.
Kubva muna 2022, Pakistan yakatakura chikwereti chePKR 59.7 trillion, chinova chihombe. 89.2% yePakistan Economy yese.
Dambudziko rehupfumi muPakistan harisi chinhu chitsva, uye kubva payakawana kuzvitonga pamakore makumi manomwe neshanu, yakatarisana nematambudziko mazhinji ehupfumi. IMF chete yakabhadhara Pakistan kagumi nenhatu mumakore makumi matatu nemashanu apfuura, uye nhamba dziri kuzowedzera mune ramangwana zvakare.
Nekudaro, mumakore mashoma apfuura, zvinhu zvechisikigo zvakawedzera uye zvakakonzera spike kamwe kamwe mumamiriro ehupfumi ePakistan.
Semuenzaniso, kwave nekuwedzera kwe25% muchikwereti chakazara kubva gore rapfuura. Nepo chikwereti chekunze chePakistan chakakwira zvinoshamisa ne35% mugore rimwe chete.
Naizvozvo, chinyorwa ichi chaizonyanya kuongorora kusafambiswa zvakanaka kwehupfumi hwePakistan mumakore achangopfuura uye kuti zvinhu zvakati wandei zvakakonzera sei hupfumi hwayo kuti huenderere kumucheto wekudonha.
Zvinokonzera
Izvo zvine musoro kuti tinzwisise kuti nyaya dzehupfumi dzePakistan dzanga dzisiri chiitiko chazvino asi magumo ehurongwa hwehupfumi hwakashata, kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika, hugandanga, fundamentalism, huwori hwekuzvarwa, uye hutongi hwemauto mukati memakore akachinja kuita bhomba hombe rechando. Izvo, kana kuputika, hazvizokanganisa kwete nyika chete asiwo pasirese.
Asi nei?
Kusagadzikana Kwezvematongerwo enyika
Hapana kana hurumende imwe chete munhoroondo yePakistan yakapedza kutonga kwayo kwakazara, izvo zvinoratidza kuti kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika kwave kutekeshera munyika. Izvi zvakapa kuti vanhu vasatariswe mubudiriro nehurongwa hwehupfumi hwenyika zvakare.
Zvichangobva kuitika zvekudzinga Imran Khan zvine chekuita netsika dzezvematongerwo enyika uye kuti hurumende inoita sei sarudzo.
sezvo zvematongerwo enyika yePakistan inonyanya kutenderera neIndia uye hurumende hadzina kugadzikana, dzinoita sarudzo dzisingabvi papfungwa dzehupfumi asi dzinovhota zvematongerwo enyika. Izvi zvinozosimudzira tarisiro yekuvaka yehurefu hwemari mutemo kudzora chikwereti miasma uye kuchengetedza kukura kwehupfumi.
Naizvozvo, Pakistan ndiyo muenzaniso webhuku rekuti kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika kune mukana wekukuvadza kukura kwenyika.
Religious Fundamentalism
Tichiongorora nhoroondo, zvinogona kucherechedzwa kuti tsika yePakistan yepasirese yechinamato haina kumboibvumira kutyora machende etsika dzechinyakare uye kuunza mukuumbwa kweCapital yazvino.
Kunyanya kukoshesa uku kuri kushandiswa zvakare naImran Khan neBato rake, Tehreek-e-Insaaf, kugadzira kupatsanurana, uko kungangove chipikiri chekupedzisira mukutanga hondo yevagari munyika.
Nekuda kweizvozvo, Mauto aizotora hutongi, uye mamirioni avanhu achakanganiswa nekuda kwemhirizhonga, nzara, uye hugandanga.
Sezvo mapoka emagandanga ekumusha akadai seTehreek-e-Taliban ave kurwira masimba muPakistan, hondo yevagari yaisazongova padivi rimwe chete kana maviri asi mazhinji. Izvi zvichawedzerwa zvakare nemapoka eRusununguko eBalochistan neKhyber-Pakhtunkhawa anoda kusununguka kubva munyika zvachose.
Zvingaita sezvisingabviri. Zvakadaro, zviri kuitika munguva pfupi yapfuura, zvinosanganisira mafashamo mumatunhu aya, mhirizhonga isingaperi nemauto, uye kubhomba nguva dzose nemapoka evapanduki, zvinoreva imwe nyaya.
Tichidzokera kuhupfumi, hupfumi hwaizofamba sei dai pasina nyika?
Zvematongerwo enyika Zvemahara uye Rubatsiro
Zvematongerwo enyika zvemahara zvawedzera kumanikidza homwe yehurumende. High Subsidies yakaunza dambudziko guru kuhurumende iripo kuti ichengetedze mukurumbira pakati pevagari vemo here kana kugumisa mahara kuderedza kudzvanywa kwehupfumi.
Saka, izvi zvinoshanda sei?
Hurumende iripo inopa rubatsiro rwakakura uye inotora chikwereti chekunze kuti iite mavhoti evanhu. Sezvo hurumende itsva inouya, yatova nedambudziko guru rechikwereti. Asi kuti vachengetedze mukurumbira, havagone kubvisa rubatsiro uye nokudaro kutora zvikwereti zvakawanda kuti neimwe nzira vafambise mavhiri ehupfumi hwakashata uye kudzivirira njodzi yehupfumi panguva ino.
Uye loop inoenderera….
Nekuda kweizvozvo, chikwereti chePakistan chekunze, kunze kweChina, chatosvika madhora mabhiriyoni makumi matanhatu neshanu, nemari inodonha seye cherry iri pamusoro.
Iwe unoona, chikwereti hachishandiswe mukukura kwehupfumi, asi sepiritsi yekukwevera hupfumi neimwe nzira. Uye ndicho chimwe chikonzero chekudonha kwehupfumi, kunyangwe nekuwedzera kwezvikwereti.
Kupindira Kwemauto
Sezvo chiremera chakakwana chiri mumaoko eKutangwa Kwemauto, sarudzo huru hadzibvi pazvido zvevanhu asi pamauto. Izvi zvinoonekwa kubva pakugoverwa kwepamusoro kwevakuru vebhajeti kumauto (17.5%).
Asi izvo, iyo yese muzana yekushandiswa kwemauto uye kubhadhara chikwereti (29.5%) yebhajeti ra2022-23 ihombe. 47% yebhajeti rese.
Zvinoreva kuti chikamu chinoda kusvika hafu yeBudget expenditure inopihwa kuti iite senge isina pundutso kana tikaiongorora mune zveupfumi chete.
Imwe mari yakakosha inopombwa zvakananga muhupfumi kuburikidza nerubatsiro uye mahara, chimwe chikonzero chekunetsekana.
China
Sezvo vanhu vachigara vachipomerwa kuti mutemo weChina weDebt trap ndiyo wakonzera mamiriro akaita Pakistan pari zvino, tinofanira kutarisa zvakadzama munyaya iyi tonzwisisa kuti China ndiyo inongokonzeresa hupfumi hwenyika hwatoparara.
Sei?
China yakakurudzira chikwereti chakawandisa nechikwereti chakanyanya-chido chekuvaka China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) pasi peBRI megaproject. Pasi peBRI, zvirongwa makumi maviri nematanhatu, zvinosanganisira madhamu, migwagwa, mabhiriji, neGwadar Port, zviri kugadzirwa nemakambani nevashandi vekuChina kutenderera nyika.
Sezvineiwo, sezvo pasina makambani ePakistani kana vagari vanoshandirwa zvakananga, mari iri kudzokera kuChina, uye hapana chinobatsira maererano nebasa kana mabhenefiti ari kuitika kune vagari vePakistan. Pane kudaro, mapurojekiti akakonzera kushushikana kukuru kune vanhu vanogara vakatenderedza mapurojekiti aya.
Nokudaro, chirongwa cheChina cheBelt and Road chinenge chakundikana, sezvo zvirongwa zvikuru zviri pasi peBRI hazvisati zvave kukwanisa kuunza mari kana kupera nenguva sezvanga zvakatarisirwa.
Zvakare, sezvo zvikwereti zvichitorwa pamitengo yakakwira-mubereko zvichienzaniswa neyepasi rose, kubhadharisa chikwereti chePakistan chekunze kwakwirawo. Iye zvino Pakistan iri kutora zvikwereti pamitengo yakakwira yekutengesa kubhadhara zvikwereti zvakapfuura.
Imwe Loop inoenderera….
Imwe nyaya inechekuita inyaya yekusiyana kwebudiriro yehupfumi mumatunhu ese. Mwoyo wePakistan, kunyanya dunhu rePunjab neSindh, rakagadziridzwa zvakanyanya zvichienzaniswa neBalochistan neKPK.
Sei?
Kukoshesa zvechitendero uye rusarura zvakadzikisira vanhu vematunhu aya, ayo anonyanya kusanganisira nharaunda dzeAhmedhiya nePashtun, kuve vagari vechikamu chechipiri munyika yavo.
Chengetedzo uye Ugandanga
Nekuda kwekudyara mari kune dzimwe nyika, kusamira zvakanaka kwezvematongerwo enyika pamwe nekusamira zvakanaka kwekuchengetedzwa kwenyika ndicho chinhu chinonyanya kuodza mwoyo kune vekunze vanosima mari dzavo munyika. Kunze kwaizvozvo, mafungiro ePakistan okukurudzira hondo kuIndia akonzera kuti mabhiriyoni emadhora akukurwe.
Chimwe chinoodza mwoyo kurwiswa kunogara kuchiitwa zvizvarwa zvekune dzimwe nyika. Izvi zvinogona kutsigirwa nekurwiswa kwemagandanga kuchangobva kuitika kuChina neSri Lankan Nationals.
Zvakare, nehurombo huri kuwedzera, Pakistan, inotova fekitori yeMagandanga, inogona kugadzira mapoka emagandanga ane vanhu vazhinji vasina chekurasikirwa. Ichaitawo kuti masangano aripo ave nesimba, pakati peiyo ISIS-Khorasan ndiyo inonyanya kukoshesa dunhu rose.
NePakistan paFATF grey runyorwa, chiyero chekudyara kunze kwenyika chakawedzera kuipa.
Kufa Mari
Iyo Pakistani Rupee ndeye mahara kudonha uye yanga ichitenderera ichitenderedza kukosha kwe220 zvichienzaniswa nedhora rekuAmerica. Nekuda kweizvozvo, iyo Pakistani Rupee yave yakashata-inoita mari muSouth Asia, nekudonha kweanenge 16.5% munaJune chete.
Mamiriro ezvinhu akawedzera kuipa nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo kwakakwira pasi rose. MuPakistan, inflation yasvika pa300% nekuda kweMafashama neIMF mamiriro. Uye kana, sezvazvinoratidzika, hupfumi hwenyika huchiwira mukuderera, Pakistan haizove nemhepo yakawanda yekufema.
Zvino, kudzokera kumubvunzo wekutanga wekuti sei kutadza kwePakistan kuchizokanganisa nyika neIndia. Pakistan kuva nyika ine simba reNuclear inoita kuti ive yakakurisa kuti isakundikana. Kana zvombo zvenyukireya zvikauya mumaoko emagandanga, nyika inogona kukuvara zvisingagadzirisiki.
Current Status
Pakistan yakatambura nemafashama makuru kubva muna 2010, izvo zvakonzera inflation uye Pakistan Rupee kutambura nekukwira kukuru. Hurumende inoti yakarasikirwa nemabhiriyoni makumi mana emadhora kubva mumafashamu, uye mari iyi inogona kuwedzera. Vanhu, vari kutotambura kubva dambudziko rehupfumi, zvino varemerwa nemafashamu uye inflation.
Nezvekuchengeterwa mari yekunze. Pakistan ine chete mabhiriyoni maviri emadhora ekuchengetera, ayo asingakwanise kubhadhara kwemavhiki mashanu ekutenga kunze kwenyika. Dambudziko rinoonekwa zvakare kubva kune yakakwira Balance yePayment Deficit ($ 15 bhiriyoni), Kubhadhara Chikwereti, uye kudzikisira kukuru kwePakistan Rupee.
Kuenderera mberi, nyaya yakakosha inoratidzwa zvakare mukushaikwa kwegwara renguva refu rezvemari. Semuyenzaniso, mutemo wemutero wePakistan unochinja mwedzi miviri-mitatu yega yega nevane masimba emitero vasingakwanise, izvo zvinoonekwa kubva pakuti ruzhinji rwenyika hachiri kubhadhara mutero.
Zvakare, nyika yakavharwa kunze kwemisika yemari yakazvimirira nekuda kweiyo hombe 16% yakapararira pakati peiyo yakaderera-yakakosha PKR neDhora. Izvi zvakatungamira kune inenge isingaite yekudyara mari yekune dzimwe nyika, maFDIs, uye kumwe kunowanikwa mari yekunze.
Sezvineiwo, nyika yave nyika inotenga chikafu kunze kwenyika, kusanganisira gorosi, tii, uye shuga.
Zvichakadaro, kurwisa kweRussia kuUkraine kwave kuita munyu unopisa paronda rePakistan. Kupinda uku kwakonzera kukwira kwemitengo yemafuta edzimotokari nemitengo yezvinhu pasi rose. Zvinoreva kuti pari zvino Pakistan inofanirwa kubhadhara mari yakawanda kutenga huwandu hwakafanana hwemafuta kana zvinhu kubva kunze kwenyika.
Uye sezvo matongerwo enyika ePakistan achinyanya kutenderera nezvemahara uye rubatsiro, hurumende haina kuzowedzera mitengo, izvo zvakakonzera kuti uwedzere mutoro kune hupfumi hwenyika.
Nekudaro, nemvumo yeIMF yechikwereti, Pakistan yakagamuchira mamwe mamiriro uye yakadzikisa rubatsiro zvakanyanya. Zvakadaro, hurumende inofanirwa kuzadzisa mamwe mamiriro kuti igamuchire imwe chikamu chepakeji.
Chii chiri Mberi?
Zvino mubvunzo ndewokuti, chii chaizvo chiri kuitika kuPakistan?
Sezvakataurwa nePakistani Economist Atif Mian, nyika iri kuendesa kukura kwayo nekutora zvikwereti zvakakura. Saka, semuenzaniso, Pakistan yakagovera chirongwa chayo chekuvaka kuChina pasi peChina Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) nekutora chikwereti kubva mairi. Ikozvino sarudzo iri nemaChinese, uye sezvo mari yese ichidzokera kuChina, haisiyi nzvimbo yekuwedzera kwekuwedzera. Zvinopesana nezvatinoti trickle-down economics.
Ndicho chikonzero nhumwa yekukura yave dhiyabhorosi mudambudziko rePakistan.
Zvakare, kusagadzikana kwePasitani Political kunofanirwa kuchengetwa kupupurira nguva yekugadzikana. Vezvematongerwo enyika vanofanirwa kubva pane zvemahara uye zvechitendero zvematongerwo enyika votarisa kunwa mapiritsi anovava kutsvaga rubatsiro nekukurumidza.
Sezvakataurwa nenyanzvi dzezvehupfumi nevagadziri vemitemo, shanduko icharwadza.
Saka tingati kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika kwakonzera mamiriro ezvinhu ePakistan?
Ngatinzwisisei izvi; dambudziko rehupfumi rakakonzerwa nekuda kwekuguma kwezviitiko zvisingafadzi zvezviitiko zvakapararira kwenguva yakareba uye zvakananga kana zvisina kunanga zvakabatanidzwa kune imwe tambo yekusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika uye kusakwanisa.
Kuno kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika hakungogumiri kuhurumende chete, asi masangano ese ezvematongerwo enyika, kusanganisira echigarire, aguma mune zvatiri kuona nhasi.
Pfungwa iri pano ndeyokuti Extractive yezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi masangano ari pamwoyo wekugadzirisa chero nyika. Shoko racho rakatsanangurwa zvakadzama mubhuku rinonzi “Why Nations Fail?” izvo zvinopa zvakadzama-pasi nhoroondo anecdote pamusoro pekuti dzimwe nyika dzakabuda nekutadza sei.
Tichitarisa kuPakistan, tichiti hurumende dzine mutoro hazvigone kutorwa sechivakwa chegakava rekuti kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika ndicho chikonzero chikuru chekunetsa kwehupfumi. Huwori nekusagona basa kuri mumasangano ese zvakadya hwaro hwenyika.
Kunyangwe IMF yakazivisa 14th package yePakistan ye $ 1.1 bhiriyoni kubva pamabhiriyoni mana emadhora, dzidziso dzakakosha dzekutonga hadzisati dzichitsigira shanduko huru dzehupfumi pamwe nekugadzirisa.
Chikwereti cheIMF chinouyawo nezviga. Yakakumbira hurumende kuti ikwidze mitengo yemafuta edzimotokari uye kudzikisa rubatsiro rwekuvandudza homwe yehurumende, izvo zviri kuita kuti hurumende itarisana nehasha dzevagari. Izvi zvichabatawo vagari vakatorohwa nemafashamu asingaperi.
Pakistan haina sarudzo dzakawanda sezvo vadyidzani vayo vechinyakare, kusanganisira Saudi Arabia, UAE, neChina, vari mugwara rekuwedzera rutsigiro rwemari.
Naizvozvo, ichave sarudzo yakaoma kune hurumende. Kunyangwe bhajeti razvino rakamisa rubatsiro mugasi nemafuta, zvakawanda zvinofanirwa kuitwa.
Kana Pakistan ichida kupupurira chimwe chinhu chinobatika, kana zvakadaro, kugadzwa kwayo kwemauto hakufanire kutsausa mari yekunze uye rubatsiro kuchinangwa chavo. Zvakare, sezvo nyika ine huwori hwakanyanya, kujeka kunofanirwa kuoneswa kuitira kupa kugoverwa kwakaenzana kwerubatsiro nemitemo munyika yose.
Parizvino, zviri pachena ndezvekuti mamiriro ePakistan acharamba ari mumhepo, pamwe achiwedzera. Inflation ichasvika pakakwirira patsva, zvichipihwa kuti IMF ichaita kuti zviremera zvizadzise mamiriro acho.
Chero njodzi yechisikigo inogona kushandura chitarisiko chenyika kubva satellite ichave nekurebesa ramifications. With 33 mamiriyoni evanhu, kusanganisira vana vane mamiriyoni e16, mumatunhu e118 akabatwa nemafashamo ari kuramba achiitika, nhamba dzacho hapana kwadzinomira nokukurumidza, uye kugadzirisa zvakakuvara zvichatora mari yakawanda nenguva.
Sezvo mafashamo akakanganisa matunhu ane urombo ePakistan, pane mukana mukuru wekukwira kwezviitiko zvehugandanga uye mapoka ezvitsauko.
Kune vemauto, muna Zvita 2022, hutungamiriri hwemauto hwakagadzirirwa kuchinja. Nekudaro, sezvo mauto akasimbisa simba rawo muchikamu chese, hapana kwainoenda kune hutungamiriri hwegutsaruzhinji.
Nehuwandu hwehuwandu hwemamiriyoni mazana maviri nemakumi maviri, chinhu chakakosha kucherechedzwa ndechekuti nyika huru sePakistan, kana Russia, inounza hombe muhupfumi hwenyika. Ndosaka hutungamiriri hwepasi rose husingakwanisi kufuratira nzou iri mumba.
Kwete ino nguva!
Nekukwira kwemitengo kunosvika kupfuura 300% muPakistan yakazara nemafashama, nyika ine nzira refu yekuenda.
Dambudziko rehupfumi rePakistan harina kuenzana neSri Lanka. Chikonzero ndechekuti kana nyika ine vanhu vakawanda, iri padhuze nekuparara, iine zvombo zvenyukireya uye iri dumbu rehugandanga, nyika dzakavakidzana nenyika, kazhinji, haigoni kufuratira kuvapo kwayo kuri kufa.
Leave a Reply