Pakati pemakakatanwa ezvematongerwo enyika uye kuratidzira kwakapararira munyika yose, mamiriro ehupfumi eBrazil anga asisina simba gore rino zvakare. Chiyero chekukura kweBrazil chicharamba chiri pa 0.8% muna 2023, iyo yakadzikira zvakanyanya kupfuura gore rapfuura.
Nyika ine nhoroondo yekuoma kwehupfumi yaona zvakare kurova mukukura kwayo nekuda kwezvikonzero zvakawanda zvezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi zviri kuitika mukati nekunze kwenyika.
Kuratidzira, kukwira kwemitengo yepasi rose, hondo yeRussia-Ukraine uye kukosha kwekusimba kwedhora reUS zvakanganisa kukura kwemabasa eBrazil, kushandisa mari kwevatengi, mihoro chaiyo uye kudyara mari muzvikamu.
Nekudaro, Brazil yakapupurira kukura kwakakwira muna Kurume 2023 kekutanga kubva Gumiguru 2022, zvimwe nekuda kweiyo fiscal framework uye kukwira kwekutengesa kwese kwasara, zvichiratidza zviratidzo zvakanaka zvekuvandudza zvine mwero muhupfumi hwese.
Ichi chinyorwa chichanyatso ongorora mamiriro azvino ehupfumi hweBrazil uye zvakamirira nyika yechishanu yakakura kwazvo pasirese.
Zvinokonzera
Hupfumi hweBrazil hunotarisirwa kudzikira kubva pa3% kukura muna 2022 kusvika 0.8% muna 2023, uye zvinhu zvakati wandei pakutamba zvakakonzera kudonha kwakadaro.
Kuderera muBasa
Pave nekukwira kwakanyanya muhuwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa munyika sezvo hupfumi hwanga huchidzikira kubvira Covid-19.
uchitikurudzira urovha yakakwira kusvika pa8.6% muna Kukadzi 2023 kubva pa7.9% muna Zvita 2022, zvichikonzera kuti vanhu miriyoni imwe nemazana mashanu varasikirwe nemabasa muna Mbudzi 1.5. Nekuda kweizvozvo, mihoro chaiyo yevashandi yakadzikirawo kekutanga muna Kukadzi 2022 kubva Kubvumbi 2023.
Higher Interest Rates
The Central Bank yeBrazil yanga ichiramba ichiwedzera mhindu kuti ibvise inflation. Nekudaro, izvi zvakawedzera mutengo wekukwereta kumabhizinesi uye kuderedza kushandiswa kwevatengi zvakare.
Vanhu vave kuda kuchengetedza mari nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu, kuderera kwemihoro uye kusachengetedzwa kwemabasa. Chiyero chazvino chepolicy chinoramba chiri pa13.75% uye chave chakafanana kubva Nyamavhuvhu 2022.
Ngozi Outlook
Panyaya yekudyara mari, mubereko wepamusoro weBrazil, kuderera kwekushandisa kwevatengi uye kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika kwakawedzera njodzi kune vanoisa mari mumusika. Semuenzaniso, Brazil iri pachinzvimbo chechi91 kubva munyika zana nemakumi mashanu nenhatu senge GlobalData Country Risk Index.
Zvibodzwa zvenyika (49.4 kubva pa100) zvakakwirira kudarika zveLatin America (48.6) uye Avhareji yeNyika (45). Nekudaro, kana zvasvika kune macroeconomic njodzi uye magariro uye demographic chimiro, Brazil ichiri kuita zvirinani kupfuura Latin America.
Kusagadzikana Kwezvematongerwo enyika
Muna Ndira 2023, kuratidzira kukuru kwakatanga pakati pevaimbova Mutungamiriri Bolsonaro neMutungamiririzvino Luiz Lula da Silva.
Lula akakunda sarudzo nemuganho mudiki muna Gumiguru 2022, asi mhedzisiro haina kugamuchirwa naBolsanaro, zvichikonzera kutsamwa kukuru pakati pevatsigiri vake uye zvakakonzera mhirizhonga yakakura uye kupamba muguta guru reBrazil, Brasilia.
Kunyange hazvo kuratidzira kwave kumiswa, kunetsa kuri kuita hupfumi hwenyika kuchaonekwa nekusawirirana pakati pevanhu vatotambura nekushomeka kwemari pamwe nekushaikwa kwemabasa.
The Bright Side
Simuka mu Tourism
Sekureva kweWorld Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), indasitiri yekushanya ndiyo yakaverengera 6% yeBrazil's GDP muna 2021 uye yakagadzira 1 mumabasa gumi nerimwe munyika.
Mushure meCovid-19 uye nekusagadzikana kwepamba nguva pfupi yadarika, indasitiri yekushanya yeBrazil yakakanganiswa zvakanyanya mumakore mashoma apfuura.
Izvi zvinoratidzika kunge zviri kuchinja sezvo hupfumi hunotanga, uye zvinofungidzirwa kuti Brazil ichapupurira kuwedzera kwevafambi kubva pamamiriyoni 2.22 muna 2021 kusvika ku3 mamiriyoni muna 2023. Mari inotarisirwa kusvika $ 16.36 Bhiriyoni muna 2023 pamwero wekukura kwegore negore. 3.80%.
Kuwedzera kunze kwenyika
Sezvakaitika Global Dhata, hupfumi hweBrazil hunotarisirwa kukura zviri nani kupfuura vezera rayo rekuLatin America. Semuenzaniso, Argentina neChile dzinofungidzirwa kukura pa0% uye -0.6% zvakateerana gore rino.
Mwero wekukura wepamusoro unofungidzirwa nekuda kwekuwedzera kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika sezvo hupfumi hweChinese hunotanga, hunoita 30% yezvese zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika muBrazil.
Nekuda kweHondo yeRussia-Ukraine, kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwezvinhu zvakakosha zvekudya, zvinosanganisira shuga, soya, mafuta anodyiwa nezvimwe, zvichasimuka sezvo zvakagadzirirwa kuzadza gaka rekupa rakagadzirwa nekuda kwehondo. Brazil ndiyo yatove mutengesi mukuru weSoybeans, uye gore rino, yaonawo goho riri nani.
Kuderedza Inflation
Kusimbisa dhora uye kuderera kwekupa kwezvinhu zvakakosha zvekudya nekuda kwehondo yeRussia-Ukraine zvakakonzera kukwira kwemitengo pasi rese, uye Brazil haina mutsauko.
Bhanga guru reBrazil, Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), riri kuyedza kudzikisira kukwira kwemitengo nekukwidza mhindu kubva muna 2021, pamberi pehupfumi hukuru.
Ikozvino mutemo weBCB ndeye 13.75% iyo isati yachinja kubva muna August 2022. Somugumisiro wezviyero zvemitemo iyi, iyo yakakosha inflation, kunze kwezvokudya uye simba, yakaderera kusvika ku7.3% muna March 2023 kubva ku10.9% munaJune. 2022.
Sezvatinoziva, mihoro chaiyo iri kuderera, izvo zvakakonzera kuderera kwekushandisa, zvichikonzera kuderera kwekuwedzera kwemitengo. Nokudaro, sezvo inflation inoderera, yakakonzera kuwedzera kwekutenda kwevatengi, iyo chiratidzo chakanaka chehupfumi.
Yakavandudzwa Fiscal Framework
Hurumende yanga ichinetsekana kudzikamisa mutemo wayo wezvemari kubvira Covid-19 nekuti yakafunga kutsigira veruzhinji nemari uye kurerutsa mutoro pahuwandu.
Nekuda kweizvozvo, Hurumende yakave nechidimbu che4.5% yeGDP yayo, nepo chikwereti chese chakaenzana 70% yeGDP yayo.
Hurongwa hwemari hwakavandudzwa huchaita kuti mashandisirwo emari arambe achitariswa uku uchiona kudzikiswa kwekushomeka kwese uye chikwereti munyika. Kunyangwe ichiri kuda kubvumidzwa neCongress, idanho rekugamuchira kuchengetedza kugadzikana kwemari 2025.
Kunze kwenyika Investments
Muna 2022, Brazil yakada kupeta kaviri yayo Yekune dzimwe nyika Direct Investment kusvika pamadhora mazana mapfumbamwe nemakumi matanhatu emadhora, iyo iyo chunk huru yakapinda muchikamu chesimba nehunyanzvi. Munguva yeDenda, Makambani akada Brazil maringe nekudyara kwavo nekuda kwekutorwa kweinternet uye tekinoroji zvivakwa.
Nekunetsana kuri kuramba kuchikwira pakati peUS neChina, Brazil yawana nzvimbo sezvo makambani eUS ari kusiyanisa mashandiro awo nekugadzira kubva kuChina kuenda kune dzimwe nyika, kusanganisira Brazil. Saizvozvo, makambani ekuChina akachinjisa mashandiro awo kuBrazil nekuda kwekuongororwa kwakanyanya neHurumende yeUS pamusoro pekutyisidzirwa kwekusora uye maitiro emubatanidzwa.
Kukura kwese kwekukura kwenyika kuchiri kuderera nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo uye mubereko wepamusoro wakaiswa neBCB, zvichikonzera kuderera kwemari. Zvakadaro, rwendo rwekukura kwenguva refu runoramba ruchive rwakanaka, uye kana inflation yasvika kune chinangwa cheCentral Bank, ichaderedza mitemo yayo yemitemo, zvichiita kuti kuwedzera kwekukura kwenyika.
mhedziso
Nehupfumi hwepamba huchiri kukura zvishoma, kuchine tariro yekuti kukura kweBrazil kuchabata mukupera kwegore rino.
Izvi zvichaitika panguva iyo hupfumi hwenyika huchidzikira nekuda kwekuondomoka kwehupfumi hwenyika.
Zvisineyi, mitemo yeHurumende yazvino inomirira kuruboshwe uye zvirongwa zvemahara zvinogona kunge zvakakonzera kukakavara mukushandiswa nemazvo kwegwaro idzva remari kana rikapasiswa zvakanaka.
Nyika ine hupfumi hwemadhora 1.89 tiririyoni ine mukana wekupfuura kubva kumasimba ehupfumi uye kupupurira spike mukukura kwayo kana zvematongerwo enyika zvemukati zvikaramba zvakatsiga uye marongero akanaka anoenderana nezviratidzo zvehupfumi kwete nhanho dzepopulist dzichiitwa zvinobudirira.
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