Iphanziswe zizikhukula, ukuhla kwamandla emali, ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko, nokuphathwa kakubi kwezoqoqosho, iPakistan isecicini lokuba lelinye iNdawo YezoQoqosho kuMzantsi Asia.
Ukusukela ngo-2022, iPakistan ilayishe i-PKR 59.7 yetriliyoni yetyala, nto leyo enzima kakhulu. 89.2% kulo lonke uQoqosho lwasePakistan.
Ingxaki yezoQoqosho yasePakistan ayisiyonto intsha, kwaye ukusukela kwiminyaka engama-75 yokuzimela kwayo, iye yathwaxwa ziingxaki ezininzi zoqoqosho. I-IMF iyodwa ikhuphe iPakistan amaxesha ali-13 kule minyaka ingama-35 idlulileyo, kwaye amanani aya kwanda nakwixesha elizayo.
Nangona kunjalo, kule minyaka imbalwa idlulileyo, izinto zendalo ziye zaqina kwaye zabangela i-spike ngequbuliso kwimeko yezoqoqosho yasePakistan.
Umzekelo, kuye kwakho ukunyuka kwe-25% kwityala lilonke ukusuka kunyaka ophelileyo. Ngelixa lilonke ityala langaphandle lasePakistan linyuke ngendlela eyothusayo ngama-35% kunyaka omnye.
Ke ngoko, eli nqaku liza kuhlalutya ubukhulu becala ukuphathwa kakubi kwezoqoqosho ePakistan kwiminyaka yakutshanje kunye nendlela izinto ezininzi eziye zabangela ngayo ukuba uqoqosho lwayo lutyhalele kumda wokuwohloka.
Izizathu
Kuyafaneleka ukuqonda ukuba imiba yezoqoqosho yasePakistan ayizange ibe yinto yamva nje kodwa isiphumo semigaqo-nkqubo embi yezoqoqosho, isiphithiphithi sezopolitiko, ubunqolobi, ubufundamentali, urhwaphilizo lwendalo, kunye nolawulo lomkhosi kwiminyaka edlulileyo eye yaguquka yaba yibhombu enkulu yekhephu. Okukuthi, ukuba kugqabhuke, akuyi kuchaphazela ilizwe kuphela kodwa nehlabathi.
Kodwa kutheni?
Ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko
Akukho namnye urhulumente kwimbali yasePakistan ogqibe ngokupheleleyo ukulawula, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko kube yeyona nto igqubayo kweli lizwe. Oku kukhokelele ekubeni kungahoywa kuphuhliso nocwangciso loqoqosho lwelizwe ngokunjalo.
Imvelaphi yakutsha nje yokugxothwa kuka-Imran Khan inxulumene ngqo nenkcubeko yezopolitiko yeli lizwe kunye nendlela urhulumente athatha ngayo izigqibo.
Njenge ipolitiki yasePakistan ubukhulu becala ijikeleze iIndiya kwaye oorhulumente bayaguquguquka, benza izigqibo ezingasekelwanga kwingqiqo esulungekileyo yezoqoqosho kodwa bavote ngezopolitiko zebhanki. Oku ekugqibeleni kubetha amathemba okwakha umgaqo-nkqubo wemali wexesha elide ukulawula i-miasma yetyala kunye nokugcina ukukhula koqoqosho oluzinzileyo.
Ke ngoko, iPakistan ingumzekelo wencwadi ebonisa ukuba ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko kunamandla okonakalisa ukukhula kwelizwe.
Ubufundamentali bonqulo
Xa kuhlalutywa imbali, kunokuqatshelwa ukuba inkcubeko yasePakistan yendalo yobufundamentalisti ayizange iyivumele ukuba yaphule amakhamandela ezithethe zakudala kwaye ingenise kuqulunqo lweNkunzi yanamhlanje.
Ubufundamentali obufanayo buyasetyenziswa kwakhona ngu-Imran Khan kunye neQela lakhe, i-Tehreek-e-Insaaf, ukudala iyantlukwano, enokuthi ibe sisikhonkwane sokugqibela ekuqaliseni imfazwe yamakhaya phakathi kwesizwe.
Ngenxa yoko, uMkhosi uza kuthatha ulawulo, kwaye izigidi zabantu ziya kuchaphazeleka ngenxa yobundlobongela, indlala, kunye nobunqolobi.
Njengamaqela abagrogrisi basekhaya anjengeTehreek-e-Taliban ngoku esilwela amandla ePakistan, imfazwe yamakhaya ayizukuba kumda omnye okanye emibini kuphela kodwa uninzi. Oku kuya kwandiswa ngakumbi ngamaqela eNkululeko yaseBalochistan naseKhyber-Pakhtunkhawa afuna ukukhululeka ngokupheleleyo kweli lizwe.
Isenokubonakala ingenakwenzeka. Noko ke, izinto ezenzeka kutshanje, eziquka izikhukula kule mimandla, ugonyamelo oluqhubekayo loMkhosi, nokuqhushumba kweebhombu rhoqo ngamaqela abavukeli, zithetha enye intsomi.
Xa sibuyela kuqoqosho, belungasebenza njani uqoqosho ukuba belingekho ilizwe?
Ipolitiki yeemali zasimahla kunye neeNkxaso-mali
Ipolitiki yesimahla ibeke uxinzelelo olongezelelekileyo kwingxowa-mali karhulumente. Uncedo oluphezulu lwenkxaso-mali luzise ingxaki enkulu kurhulumente okhoyo malunga nokuba agcine ukuthandwa phakathi kwabemi okanye aphelise imali yasimahla ukunciphisa uxinzelelo kuqoqosho.
Ke, isebenza njani le nto?
Urhulumente olawulayo unikezela ngenkxaso-mali eninzi kwaye uthatha amatyala angaphandle ukuhambisa ivoti yabemi. Njengoko urhulumente omtsha esiza, sele enengxaki enkulu yamatyala. Kodwa ukuze kugcinwe ukuthandwa, abanako ukususa inkxaso-mali baze ngaloo ndlela bathathe iimali-mboleko ezingakumbi ukuze ngandlel’ ithile baqhubele phambili uqoqosho oluxheliweyo baze baphephe intlekele yezoqoqosho okwangoku.
Kwaye loop iyaqhubeka….
Ngenxa yoko, ityala langaphandle lasePakistan, ngaphandle kwe-China, sele lifikelele kwi-65 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, kunye nemali ephumayo njengecheri ephezulu.
Uyabona, ityala alisetyenziselwa ukukhula koqoqosho, kodwa njengepilisi yokunciphisa ngandlela-thile ukutsala uqoqosho. Kwaye eso sesinye sezizathu zokuhla kokukhula koqoqosho, kwanokonyuka kweemali-mboleko.
Ukungenelela komkhosi
Njengoko igunya elipheleleyo lisezandleni zokuSekwa koMkhosi, izigqibo ezikhulu azisekelwanga kwiimfuno zabemi kodwa emkhosini. Oku kubonakala kulwabiwo oluphezulu lweentloko zebhajethi ukuya emkhosini (17.5%).
Ngapha koko, ipesenti iyonke yenkcitho yasemkhosini kunye nokubuyiswa kwamatyala (29.5%) kuhlahlo lwabiwo-mali luka-2022-23 yinto enkulu. 47% yohlahlo lwabiwo-mali lulonke.
Kuthetha ukuba phantse isiqingatha senkcitho yoHlahlo-lwabiwo-mali yabelwe into ebonakala ingenamveliso ukuba siyihlalutya ngokwemigaqo yezoqoqosho kuphela.
Esinye isixa esibalulekileyo siphonswa ngokuthe ngqo kuqoqosho ngenkxaso-mali kunye ne-freebies, enye into ebangela inkxalabo.
iTshayina
Njengoko kudla ngokutyholwa ukuba umgaqo-nkqubo weTyala waseTshayina ungunobangela wemeko yangoku yasePakistan, kufuneka sijonge nzulu kulo mba kwaye siqonde ukuba iChina yeyona nto iphambili kwimpilo yezoqoqosho yelizwe esele ifa.
Ngoba?
I-China yenza isindululo semali-mboleko egqithisileyo ngexabiso lenzala ephezulu kakhulu yokwakha i-China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) phantsi kwe-BRI megaproject. Ngaphantsi kwe-BRI, iiprojekthi ezingama-26 zizonke, kuquka amadama, iindlela, iibhulorho, kunye nePort yaseGwadar, zakhiwa ziinkampani nabasebenzi baseTshayina kwilizwe liphela.
Okubangela umdla kukuba, njengoko kungekho nkampani zasePakistani okanye abemi baqeshwe ngokuthe ngqo, imali ibuyela e-China, kwaye akukho nto inenzuzo malunga nengqesho okanye izibonelelo ezihlangeneyo ezenzekayo kubemi basePakistan. Endaweni yoko, iiprojekthi ziye zabangela uxinzelelo olukhulu kubantu abahlala kufutshane nezi projekthi.
Ke ngoko, inyathelo laseTshayina leBelt and Road libonakala lisilele, ngenxa yokuba iiprojekthi ezinkulu eziphantsi kweBRI azikakwazi ukwenza imali okanye zigqitywe ngexesha njengoko bekulindelekile.
Ngaphezu koko, njengoko iimali-mboleko zithathwa ngenzala ephezulu kakhulu xa kuthelekiswa nemigangatho yehlabathi, ukubonelelwa kwamatyala angaphandle ePakistan nako kunyukile. Ngoku iPakistan ithatha iimali-mboleko ngamaxabiso aphezulu orhwebo ukuze ibuyise iimali-mboleko ezidlulileyo.
Enye iLoop iyaqhubeka….
Omnye umba onxulumeneyo ngumahluko kwinkqubela phambili yezoqoqosho kuyo yonke imimandla. Intliziyo yePakistan, ikakhulu ingingqi yasePunjab kunye neSindh, iphuhliswe kakhulu xa ithelekiswa neBalochistan kunye neKPK.
Ngoba?
Ubufundamentali bonqulo nocalucalulo luye lwabathob’ isidima abantu bale mimandla, ubukhulu becala equka uluntu lwase-Ahmediya nePashtun, ukuba babe ngabemi abakumgangatho wesibini kwilizwe labo.
Ukhuseleko kunye nobunqolobi
Njengoko utyalo-mali lwangaphandle luxhalabile, ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko kunye nokudodobala kokhuseleko ngowona mba udimazayo kubatyali-zimali bangaphandle ukuba batyale imali kweli lizwe. Ngaphandle koko, isimo sengqondo sasePakistan sokuphembelela imfazwe eIndiya sibangele ukuba kukhukuliswe iibhiliyoni zeerandi.
Enye into edimazayo kukuhlaselwa rhoqo kwabemi bamazwe angaphandle. Oku kunokuqinisekiswa luhlaselo lwamva nje lwamaphekula kumaTshayina nabemi baseSri Lankan.
Ngaphezu koko, ngokukhula kwentlupheko, iPakistan, esele iyifektri yabanqolobi, inokudala amaqela anqongopheleyo anabantu abaninzi abangenanto yokulahlekelwa. Kwakhona kuya kwenza imibutho ekhoyo ibe namandla, phakathi kwayo i-ISIS-Khorasan iyona nto ixhalabisayo kulo mmandla wonke.
NgePakistan kuluhlu olungwevu lweFATF, umda wotyalo-mali lwangaphandle uye waba mandundu ngakumbi.
Imali yokufa
I-Pakistani Rupee iwa simahla kwaye ibijikeleza ngexabiso elingama-220 xa ithelekiswa nedola yaseMelika. Ngenxa yoko, i-Pakistani Rupee ibe yimali esebenza kakhulu eMzantsi Asia, ngokuwa malunga ne-16.5% ngoJuni kuphela.
Imeko iye yaba mandundu ngakumbi ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto kwihlabathi liphela. EPakistan, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kufikelele kwi-300% ngenxa yeZikhukula kunye neemeko ze-IMF. Kwaye ukuba, njengoko kubonakala ngathi, uqoqosho lwehlabathi luwela ekuwohlokeni, iPakistan ayisayi kuba nomoya omninzi wokuphefumla.
Ngoku, ukubuyela kumbuzo wokuqala wokuba kutheni ukusilela kwePakistan kuya kuba nefuthe kwihlabathi kunye neIndiya. IPakistan ngokuba lilizwe elinamandla eNyukliya yenza ukuba ibe nkulu kakhulu ukuba ingaphumeleli. Ukuba iimfazwe zeNyukliya zingena kwizandla zabanqolobi, umhlaba unokuba nomonakalo ongenakulungiseka.
Ubume bangoku
IPakistan iye yathwaxwa zizikhukula ukusukela ngo-2010, nto leyo ebangele ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye ne-Rupee yasePakistan ichaphazeleke kakhulu. Urhulumente uqikelele ilahleko yeebhiliyoni ezingama-40 zeerandi kwizikhukula, kwaye iindleko zinokunyuka ngakumbi. Abantu, abasele bebandezelekile ubunzima bezoqoqosho, ngoku zithwaxwa zizikhukula nokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Ngokubhekiselele koovimba botshintshiselwano lwangaphandle. IPakistan inogcino oluxabisa i-2 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kuphela, engenakukwazi ukuhlawula iiveki ezi-5 zokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe. Ingxaki ikwabonakala nakwiNtsilelo ephezulu yeNtlawulo yeNtlawulo ($ 15 billion), ukubonelelwa kwetyala, kunye nokuhla kwexabiso lePakistani Rupee.
Ukuqhubela phambili, umba obalulekileyo ukwabonakaliswa kukunqongophala komgaqo-nkqubo wemali wexesha elide ohambelanayo. Umzekelo, umgaqo-nkqubo werhafu wasePakistan utshintsha rhoqo emva kweenyanga ezi-2 ukuya kwezi-3 kunye nabasemagunyeni abarhafisayo, nto leyo ebonakala kwinto yokuba uninzi lwabemi belizwe abasayihlawuli rhafu.
Ngaphaya koko, ilizwe livaleleke kwiimalike ezinkulu zabucala ngenxa yokusasazeka kwe-16% phakathi kwe-PKR enexabiso eliphantsi kunye neDola. Oku kukhokelele kutyalo-mali lwepotfoliyo yangaphandle ephantse yangabalulekanga, ii-FDIs, kunye neminye imithombo yokungena enaniselwano lwangaphandle.
Okubangel’ umdla kukuba, eli lizwe liye laba lilizwe elingenisa ukutya kwamanye amazwe, kuquka ingqolowa, iti neswekile.
Ngeli xesha, ukuhlasela kweRashiya eUkraine kuye kwaba yityuwa engathethekiyo ePakistan. Olu hlaselo lubangele ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezithuthi zehlabathi kunye neemveliso zorhwebo. Kuthetha ukuba ngoku iPakistan kufuneka ihlawule ngaphezulu ukuthenga isixa esifanayo samafutha okanye imveliso evela kumazwe angaphandle.
Kwaye njengoko iipolitiki zasePakistan zijikeleza kakhulu kwi-freebies kunye nenkxaso-mali, urhulumente akakawanyusi amaxabiso emva koko, nto leyo ekhokelele kumthwalo ongaphaya kwi-exchequer yelizwe.
Nangona kunjalo, ngokuvunywa yi-IMF kwimali-mboleko, iPakistan iye yamkele imiqathango ethile kwaye yehla nenkxaso-mali kakhulu. Nangona kunjalo, urhulumente kufuneka azalisekise iimeko ezininzi ukuze afumane elinye icandelo lephakheji.
Yintoni Phambili?
Ngoku umbuzo ngulo, yintoni kanye kanye eyenzekayo ePakistan?
Njengoko imvelaphi yezoQoqosho yasePakistan u-Atif Mian uthe, ilizwe likhupha ukukhula kwalo ngokuthatha amatyala amakhulu. Ke, umzekelo, iPakistan yanikezela ngeprojekthi yeziseko zophuhliso e-China phantsi kwe-China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) ngokuthatha amatyala kuyo. Ngoku ukhetho lukunye namaTshayina, kwaye njengoko yonke imali ibuyela eTshayina, ayishiyi mda wokuphindaphinda ukukhula. Ichasene noko sikubiza ngokuba yi-trickle-down economics.
Yiyo loo nto igqiza lokukhula libe ngusathana kwingxaki yasePakistan.
Ngaphezu koko, ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko zasePakistan kufuneka kuthathelwe ingqalelo ukuze kubonelelwe ixesha lozinzo. Abezopolitiko kufuneka basuke kwi-freebies kunye nezopolitiko zenkolo kwaye bagxininise ekuthatheni iipilisi ezikrakra ukufuna uncedo olukhawulezileyo.
Njengoko uninzi lwezoqoqosho kunye nabenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo baye bachaza, inguqu iya kuba buhlungu.
Ke singatsho ukuba ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko kubangele imeko yangoku yasePakistan?
Masiyiqonde le nto; ubunzima bezoqoqosho bubangelwe ngenxa yokuphela koluhlu olungathandekiyo lweziganeko ezisasazeka kwixesha elide kwaye zixhunywe ngokuthe ngqo okanye ngokungathanga ngqo kumtya omnye wokungazinzi kwezopolitiko kunye nokungakwazi ukusebenza.
Apha ukungazinzi kwezobupolitika akupheleliselwanga koorhulumente kuphela, kodwa onke amaziko ezobupolitika, kuquka nalawo asisigxina, aye afikelela kuvuthondaba koko sikubonayo namhlanje.
Umbono apha ngowokuba amaziko ezopolitiko kunye nezoqoqosho aluncedo angundoqo wokwenziwa kwalo naliphi na ilizwe. Eli gama liye lachazwa ngokweenkcukacha kwincwadi ethi “Why Nations Fail?” enika i-anecdote yembali enzulu malunga nendlela amanye amazwe avele kwaye asilela ngayo.
Ukujonga iPakistan, besithi oorhulumente banoxanduva abanakuthatyathwa njengesiseko sengxoxo yokuba ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko sesona sizathu siphambili sobunzima bezoqoqosho. Ubuqhophololo nokungakwazi ukwenza umsebenzi okukhoyo kuwo onke amaziko kutye iziseko zelizwe.
Nangona i-IMF ibhengeze iphakheji ye-14 yePakistan ye $ 1.1 billion kwi-4 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, imigaqo esisiseko yolawulo ayikaluxhasi uhlengahlengiso olukhulu lwezoqoqosho kunye nolungiso.
Imali-mboleko ye-IMF nayo iza nemiqathango. Ucele urhulumente ukuba anyuse amaxabiso epetroli kwaye ehlise izibonelelo zokuphucula ingxowa-mali yabo, nto leyo ebangela ukuba urhulumente ajongane nengqumbo yabemi. Oku kuya kuchaphazela nabemi abasele bethwaxwe zizikhukula ezingapheliyo.
IPakistan ayinakukhetha zininzi njengoko amahlakani ayo emveli, kubandakanya iSaudi Arabia, i-UAE, kunye neTshayina, akakho kwimeko yokwandisa inkxaso yezemali.
Ke ngoko, iya kuba sisigqibo esinzima kurhulumente. Nangona uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwakutsha nje luzicimile iinkxaso-mali kwigesi nakwizibaso, kuninzi ekufuneka kwenziwe.
Ukuba iPakistan ifuna ukubona into ebonakalayo, kuloo meko, ukusekwa kwayo emkhosini akufuneki kuphambukise izibonelelo zangaphandle kunye noncedo kwinjongo yazo. Ngaphezu koko, ekubeni sisisizwe esinobuqhophololo kakhulu, kufuneka kuqinisekiswe ukwenziwa kwezinto elubala ukuze kunikelwe ngokulinganayo uncedo kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo kwilizwe lonke.
Okwangoku, into ebonakalayo kukuba imeko yasePakistan iya kuhlala iguquguquka, mhlawumbi ibe mandundu. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuya kufikelela kwinqanaba elitsha, ngenxa yokuba i-IMF iya kuqinisekisa ukuba abasemagunyeni bazalisekisa iimeko.
Nayiphi na intlekele yendalo enokutshintsha inkangeleko yelizwe kwisathelayithi iya kuba neziphumo zexesha elide. Nge 33 abantu abayizigidi, kuquka 16 million abantwana, kwizithili 118 ezichatshazelwe zizikhukula eziqhubekayo, amanani akukho ndawo uya kuyeka kungekudala, kwaye ukulungisa umonakalo kuya kuthatha imali eninzi kunye nexesha.
Njengoko izikhukhula zichaphazele imimandla ehlwempuzekileyo yasePakistan, kukho ithuba elikhulu lokunyuka kwezenzo zobugrogrisi kunye namaqela ahlukeneyo.
Kumkhosi, ngoDisemba ka-2022, ubunkokeli bomkhosi kulindeleke ukuba butshintshe. Nangona kunjalo, njengoko umkhosi ugxininise amandla awo kuwo onke amacandelo, akukho ndawo iya kuthi inike indlela kubunkokeli bedemokhrasi.
Ngobuninzi babantu abazizigidi ezingama-220, eyona nto ibalulekileyo ekufuneka uyiqaphele kukuba ilizwe elikhulu elifana nePakistan, okanye iRussia, lizisa indima enkulu kuqoqosho lwehlabathi. Yiyo loo nto ubunkokeli beHlabathi bungenakuyihoya indlovu esegumbini.
Hayi ngeli xesha!
Ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso kufikelele ngaphezu kwe-300% kwiPakistan ezaliswe zizikhukula, ilizwe linohambo olude.
Ingxaki yezoqoqosho yasePakistan ayilingani neSri Lanka. Isizathu sesokuba xa ilizwe elinabemi abaninzi, elisecicini lokuwa, linezixhobo zenyukliya kwaye lisisibeleko sobunqolobi, amazwe angabamelwane nehlabathi, ngokubanzi, alinakubuhoya ubukho balo obufayo.
Shiya iMpendulo