Phakathi kweengxwabangxwaba zezopolitiko kunye noqhanqalazo oluxhaphakileyo kwilizwe lonke, imbonakalo yezoqoqosho yaseBrazil ibindim nakulo nyaka. Izinga lokukhula eliqikelelwayo laseBrazil liya kuhlala liku-0.8% ngo-2023, elisezantsi kakhulu kunonyaka ophelileyo.
Ilizwe elinembali yeengxaki zoqoqosho liphinde labona ukuchaphazeleka kokukhula kwalo ngenxa yeemeko ezininzi zopolitiko nezoqoqosho ezidlalayo ngaphakathi nangaphandle kwelizwe.
Uqhanqalazo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ehlabathi, imfazwe yaseRussia-Ukraine kunye nokuqiniswa kwexabiso ledola yaseMelika kube nefuthe elibi ekukhuleni kwengqesho yaseBrazil, inkcitho yabathengi, imivuzo yokwenyani kunye notyalo-mali kuwo wonke amacandelo.
Nangona kunjalo, iBrazil yabona ukukhula okunyukayo ngoMatshi ka-2023 okokuqala ukusukela ngo-Okthobha wama-2022, ngokuyinxenye ngenxa yesakhelo esitsha semali kunye nokunyuka kwentsalela yorhwebo iyonke, ngaloo ndlela ibonisa iimpawu ezintle zokuphucuka okuphakathi kuqoqosho lulonke.
Eli nqaku liza kuhlalutya ngokunzulu imeko yangoku yoqoqosho lwaseBrazil kunye nokuba yintoni ezayo kwilizwe le-5th likhulu kwihlabathi.
Izizathu
Uqoqosho lwaseBrazil kulindeleke ukuba lucothe ukusuka kwi-3% ukukhula ngo-2022 ukuya kwi-0.8% ngo-2023, kunye nezinto ezininzi zokudlala ezikhokelele ekwehleni komnqantsa.
Ukuhla kwiNgqesho
Kubekho ukunyuka okuthe kratya kwinqanaba labantu abangaphangeliyo kwilizwe liphela njengoko uqoqosho belusehla ukusukela oko ngenxa ye-Covid-19.
Kuko konke yokungasebenzi inyuke yaya kutsho kwi-8.6% ngoFebruwari 2023 ukusuka kwi-7.9% ngoDisemba 2022, okubangele ukuba abantu abayi-1.5 yesigidi baphulukane nemisebenzi ngoNovemba ka-2022.
Inzala ephezulu
The KwiBhanki ephakathi yaseBrazil ibisoloko isonyusa izinga lenzala ukuze kupheliswe ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Nangona kunjalo, oku kunyuse iindleko zokuboleka kumashishini kwaye yehlisa nenkcitho yabathengi ngokunjalo.
Abantu ngoku batyekele kakhulu ekongeni ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukuhla kwemivuzo kwaye akukho khuseleko lomsebenzi. Izinga lomgaqo-nkqubo wangoku lihleli kwi-13.75% kwaye belifana ukususela ngo-Agasti ka-2022.
Umngcipheko wokujonga
Ngokubhekiselele kutyalo-mali, izinga eliphezulu lenzala yaseBrazil, ukuhla kwenkcitho yabathengi kunye nezidubedube zezopolitiko zinyuse umngcipheko kubatyali-mali kwimarike. Ngokomzekelo, iBrazil ibekwe kwindawo yama-91 kumazwe ali-153 ngokomthetho I-GlobalData Country Risk Index.
Amanqaku elizwe (ama-49.4 kwi-100) aphezulu kuneLatin America (48.6) kunye noMyinge weHlabathi (45). Nangona kunjalo, xa kufikwa kumngcipheko omkhulu wezoqoqosho kunye nolwakhiwo lwentlalo kunye noluntu, iBrazil isaqhuba ngcono kuneLatin America.
Izidubedube kwezopolitiko
NgoJanuwari ka-2023, kwaqhambuka uqhanqalazo olukhulu phakathi kwamaqela alowo wayesakuba nguMongameli Bolsonaro kunye noMongameli wangoku, uLuiz Lula da Silva.
ULula uphumelele unyulo ngomda omncinci ngo-Okthobha ka-2022, kodwa iziphumo azizange zamkelwe nguBolsanaro, nto leyo ebangela umsindo obanzi phakathi kwabaxhasi bakhe kwaye yakhokelela kuqhushululu olukhulu kunye nokuphangwa kwikomkhulu laseBrazil, eBrasilia.
Nangona uqhanqalazo sele lunqunyanyisiwe, ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho kuza kubonakala ngendlela yokucaphuka phakathi kwabantu abasele bebandezelekile ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso nentswela-ngqesho.
Icala Eliqaqambileyo
Ukunyuka kwezoKhenketho
Ngokutsho kweWorld Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), ishishini lokhenketho liphendule 6% yeGDP yaseBrazil ngo-2021 kwaye idale umsebenzi om-1 kuyo yonke imisebenzi eli-11 elizweni.
Emva kweCovid-19 kunye nezidubedube zasekhaya zakutsha nje, ishishini lokhenketho laseBrazil liye lachaphazeleka kakubi kule minyaka imbalwa idlulileyo.
Oku kubonakala kutshintsha njengoko uqoqosho luvula, kwaye kuqikelelwa ukuba iBrazil iya kubona ukunyuka kwabahambi ukusuka kwi-2.22 yezigidi kwi-2021 ukuya kwi-3 yezigidi ngo-2023. Ingeniso kulindeleke ukuba ifike kwi-16.36 yezigidigidi zeedola ngo-2023 ngesantya sokukhula sonyaka. 3.80%.
Ukwandiswa kokuThunyelwa kwamanye amazwe
Nje ngokuba Idatha yeHlabathi, uqoqosho lwaseBrazil kulindeleke ukuba lukhule ngcono kunoontanga bayo baseLatin America. Ngokomzekelo, iArgentina kunye neChile kulindeleke ukuba zikhule kwi-0% kunye -0.6% ngokulandelanayo kulo nyaka.
Izinga eliphezulu lokukhula liqikelelwa ngenxa yokunyuka kwempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle njengoko uqoqosho lwaseTshayina luvuleka, olubalelwa kuma-30% emveliso ethunyelwa ngaphandle eBrazil.
Ngenxa yeMfazwe yaseRashiya-Ukraine, ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwezinto eziyimfuneko zokutya, kubandakanywa iswekile, i-soya, i-oyile edliwayo njl., Kuya kuphakama njengoko kumiselwe ukuzalisa i-gap yokubonelela eyenziwe ngenxa yemfazwe. IBrazil sele iyeyona inkulu ekuthengiseni iimbotyi zesoya kwamanye amazwe, yaye kulo nyaka, ikwabone isivuno esihle.
Ukunciphisa i-Inflation
Idola eyomelezayo kunye nokuncipha kokubonelelwa kwezinto eziyimfuneko zokutya ngenxa yemfazwe yaseRussia-Ukraine kukhokelele ekunyukeni kwexabiso lentengo kwihlabathi liphela, kwaye iBrazil nayo ayifani.
IBhanki ePhakathi yaseBrazil, iBanco Central do Brasil (BCB), izama ukunciphisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngokunyusa izinga lenzala ukusuka kwi-2021, ngaphambi koqoqosho olukhulu.
Izinga lomgaqo-nkqubo wangoku we-BCB yi-13.75% engazange itshintshe ukususela ngo-Agasti 2022. Ngenxa yale milinganiselo yomgaqo-nkqubo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okungundoqo, ngaphandle kokutya kunye namandla, kuye kwehla ukuya kwi-7.3% ngo-Matshi 2023 ukusuka kwi-10.9% ngoJuni. 2022.
Njengoko sisazi, imivuzo yokwenyani iyehla, nto leyo ekhokelele ekwehleni kwenkcitho, nto leyo ebangela ukuhla kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ngoko ke, njengoko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuncipha, kuye kwabangela ukunyuka kokuzithemba kwabathengi, oku luphawu oluhle lwezoqoqosho.
Isakhelo seMali esiPhuculweyo
Urhulumente ebezama ukulinganisa umgaqo-nkqubo wakhe wemali ukusukela kwi-Covid-19 kuba ethathe isigqibo sokuxhasa abantu ngezimali kunye nokwenza lula umthwalo kubemi.
Ngenxa yoko, uRhulumente ube nentsilelo ye-4.5% ye-GDP yakhe, ngelixa ityala lilonke lalilingana 70% kwiGDP yayo.
Ubume obuphuculweyo bezemali siya kugcina inkcitho yezemali ilungile ngelixa siqinisekisa ukuncitshiswa kwentsilelo ngokubanzi kunye namatyala elizweni. Nangona isafuna ukuvunywa yiCongress, linyathelo elamkelekileyo lokugcina uzinzo lwayo lwemali 2025.
Utyalomali lwangaphandle
Ngo-2022, iBrazil iphantse yaphinda kabini uTyalo-mali lwayo lwaNgaphandle ukuya kwi-90.6 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, apho eyona nxalenye inkulu iye kwicandelo lamandla kunye nobuchwepheshe. Ngexesha lobhubhani, iiNkampani zikhethe iBrazil kutyalo-mali lwazo ngenxa yokwamkelwa okuphezulu kwe-intanethi kunye neziseko zophuhliso lwetekhnoloji.
Ngokunyuka kokungavisisani phakathi kwe-US ne-China, i-Brazil iye yazuza umhlaba njengoko iinkampani zase-US ziguqula isiseko sazo sokusebenza kunye nesemveliso ukusuka e-China ukuya kwezinye iintlanga, kuquka i-Brazil. Ngokufanayo, iinkampani zaseTshayina ziye zatshintshela ukusebenza kwazo eBrazil ngenxa yokuphononongwa okuphezulu nguRhulumente wase-US ngenxa yezoyikiso zokuhlola kunye nezenzo ezihambelanayo.
Ukukhula ngokubanzi kwelizwe kuhleli kuphantsi ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nenzala ephezulu ebekwe yiBCB, ebangela ukwehla kwenkcitho. Sekunjalo, i-trajectory yokukhula kwexesha elide ihlala ilungile, kwaye xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kufikelela kwithagethi yeBhanki ePhakamileyo, kuya kuncipha amazinga omgaqo-nkqubo, okubangela ukunyuka kwezinga lokukhula kwelizwe.
isiphelo
Njengoko uqoqosho lwasekhaya lusakhula ngesantya esincinci, kusekho ithemba lokuba ukukhula kweBrazil kuya kubamba isantya ekupheleni kwalo nyaka.
Oku kuya kwenzeka ngexesha apho uqoqosho olukhulu lwehlabathi luza kuhla ngenxa yokudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi.
Nangona kunjalo, imigaqo-nkqubo kaRhulumente yangoku exhasa kwicala lasekhohlo kunye nezikimu zasimahla zinokuba lithambo lempikiswano ekuphunyezweni okusebenzayo kwesakhelo semali esitsha ukuba siphunyezwe ngempumelelo.
Ilizwe elinoqoqosho lwe-1.89 yeetriliyoni zeedola linakho ukudlula kwi-recessionary forces kwaye libone ukukhula kwe-spike ekukhuleni kwalo ukuba ipolitiki yasekhaya ihlala izinzile kwaye imigaqo-nkqubo ephilileyo esekelwe kwizalathi zezoqoqosho kunokuba amanyathelo oluntu aphunyezwe ngempumelelo.
Shiya iMpendulo