Icekelwe phansi yizikhukhula, ukwehla kwamandla emali, ukuntengantenga kwezombusazwe, nokungaphathwa kahle kwezomnotho, iPakistan isonqenqemeni lokuba ngelinye futhi iNdawo Yezomnotho EseNingizimu ye-Asia.
Kusukela ngo-2022, iPakistan ilayishe isikweletu sika-PKR 59.7 trillion, okuyinani elibi kakhulu. 89.2% yawo wonke umnotho wasePakistan.
Inkinga yezomnotho yasePakistan ayiqali ukwenzeka, futhi kusukela eminyakeni engama-75 yathola inkululeko, iye yabhekana nezinkinga eziningi zomnotho. I-IMF iyodwa itakule iPakistan izikhathi ezingu-13 kule minyaka engu-35 nje edlule, futhi amanani azokwanda nangesikhathi esizayo.
Kodwa-ke, eminyakeni embalwa edlule, izici ezingokwemvelo ziye zaqina futhi zabangela ukukhuphuka okungazelelwe kwesimo somnotho esingesihle sasePakistan.
Isibonelo nje, kube nokukhuphuka kwesikweletu ngo-25% kusukela ngonyaka odlule. Ngenkathi isamba sesikweletu sangaphandle sasePakistan sikhuphuke ngokushaqisayo ngama-35% onyakeni owodwa.
Ngakho-ke, lesi sihloko sizohlaziya kakhulu ukuphathwa kabi komnotho wasePakistan eminyakeni yamuva nje nokuthi izici ezimbalwa zihlangene zidale ukuthi umnotho wayo ufinyelele emphethweni wokuwa.
Izimbangela
Kufanelekile ukuqonda ukuthi izindaba zezomnotho zasePakistan azizange zibe yinto yakamuva kodwa umvuthwandaba wezinqubomgomo ezimbi zezomnotho, izinxushunxushu zezombusazwe, ubushokobezi, ubufandamentali, inkohlakalo yemvelo, kanye nokubusa kwezempi phakathi neminyaka eye yaphenduka ibhomu elikhulu leqhwa. Okuthi, uma kuqhuma, ngeke kuthinte izwe kuphela kodwa nomhlaba wonke.
Kodwa kungani?
Ukungazinzi Kwezombangazwe
Akekho noyedwa uhulumeni emlandweni wePakistan oseqede isikhundla sakhe ngokugcwele, okukhombisa ukuthi ukuntengantenga kwezombusazwe kube yinsakavukela umchilo wesidwaba kuleli. Lokhu kuholele ekutheni kube nokunganakwa kwentuthuko nokuhlelwa komnotho wezwe.
Umlando wakamuva wokukhipha u-Imran Khan esikhundleni uxhumene ngqo nesiko lezepolitiki lezwe kanye nendlela uhulumeni athatha ngayo izinqumo.
Njengoba i ezombusazwe yasePakistan igxile kakhulu eNdiya futhi ohulumeni bayaguquguquka, benza izinqumo ezingasekelwe ekucabangeni okumsulwa kwezomnotho kodwa bavotela ipolitiki yasebhange. Lokhu ekugcineni kwehlisa amathuba okwakha inqubomgomo yezimali yesikhathi eside ukuze kulawulwe i-miasma yezikweletu nokugcina ukukhula komnotho okuqhubekayo.
Ngakho-ke, iPakistan iyisibonelo sezincwadi zendlela ukungazinzi kwezepolitiki okungalimaza ngayo ukukhula kwezwe.
I-Fundamentalism Yezenkolo
Ukuhlaziya umlando, kungaqashelwa ukuthi isiko lasePakistan lemvelo lesisekelo senkolo alikaze likuvumele ukugqabula amaketango amasiko amadala futhi lingenise ukwakheka kweNhlokodolobha yesimanje.
Isisekelo esifanayo sisasetshenziswa futhi ngu-Imran Khan neQembu lakhe, i-Tehreek-e-Insaaf, ukudala uqhekeko, okungenzeka kube isipikili sokugcina ebhokisini ekuqaleni impi yombango phakathi kwesizwe.
Ngenxa yalokho, Amasosha azothatha izintambo zokuphatha, futhi izigidi zabantu zizothinteka ngenxa yodlame, indlala, nobushokobezi.
Njengoba amaqembu amaphekula asekhaya anjengeTehreek-e-Taliban manje esebanga amandla ePakistan, impi yombango ngeke ibe sehlangothini elilodwa noma amabili kuphela kodwa eminingi. Lokhu kuzobhebhethekiswa namaqembu eNkululeko aseBalochistan naseKhyber-Pakhtunkhawa afuna ukugqashula ezweni ngokuphelele.
Kungase kubonakale kungenakwenzeka. Nokho, intuthuko yakamuva, kuhlanganise nezikhukhula kulezi zifunda, udlame olungapheli lweButho Lamasosha, nokuqhuma kwamabhomu okuqhubekayo kwamaqembu amavukela-mbuso, kukhuluma indaba ehlukile.
Uma sibuyela emnothweni ngabe umnotho uzosebenza kanjani uma belingekho izwe?
Ipolitiki Yamahhala Nemixhaso
Ipolitiki yemali yamahhala isifake ingcindezi eyengeziwe kumgcinimafa kahulumeni. Imixhaso Ephezulu ilethe enkulu ingqinamba kuhulumeni okhona mayelana nokuthi agcine ukuduma ezakhamuzini noma kuqedwe imali yamahhala ukuze kwehliswe ingcindezi emnothweni.
Ngakho-ke, kusebenza kanjani lokhu?
Uhulumeni osesikhundleni unikeza izibonelelo ezinkulu futhi uthatha izikweletu zangaphandle ukuze adlulisele ivoti labantu. Njengoba uhulumeni omusha eza, usuvele unenkinga enkulu yezikweletu. Kodwa ukuze balondoloze ukuduma, abakwazi ukususa uxhaso futhi ngaleyo ndlela bathathe imali ebolekiwe ngandlela thize ukuze ngandlela thize amasondo omnotho ogqwalile futhi bagweme inhlekelele yezomnotho okwamanje.
Futhi iluphu iyaqhubeka….
Ngenxa yalokho, isikweletu sangaphandle sasePakistan, ngaphandle kwe-China, sesifinyelele ku-$65 billion, nemali ewela mahhala njenge-cherry phezulu.
Uyabona, isikweletu asisetshenziselwa ukukhula komnotho, kodwa njengephilisi lokunciphisa ngandlela thize umnotho. Futhi leso ngesinye sezizathu zokuwa komnotho, ngisho nokwenyuka kwemali mboleko.
Ukugxambukela Kwezempi
Njengoba igunya eliphelele lisezandleni Zokusungulwa Kwezempi, izinqumo ezinkulu azisekelwe ezidingweni zabantu kodwa kwezempi. Lokhu kubonakala ekwabiweni okuphezulu kwamakhanda esabelomali esiya kwezempi (17.5%).
Eqinisweni, inani eliphelele lezindleko zezempi kanye nokukhokhwa kwezikweletu (29.5%) kusabelomali sika-2022-23 liyimali enzima. 47% yesabelomali esiphelele.
Kusho ukuthi cishe uhhafu wemali esetshenziswa kwiSabelomali yabelwe ukuthi ibonakale ingasebenzi uma siyihlaziya ngokwemibandela yezomnotho kuphela.
Enye imali ebalulekile iphonswa ngokuqondile emnothweni ngokusebenzisa izibonelelo kanye nezindleko zamahhala, enye imbangela yokukhathazeka.
China
Njengoba kuvame ukusolwa ukuthi i-Debt trap policy yase-China yikona okuyimbangela yesimo sasePakistan esikhona manje, kufanele silubhekisise sijule lolu daba siqonde ukuthi i-China iyona engumgqugquzeli wempilo yomnotho wezwe osuvele uyafa.
Kungani?
I-China ihlongoze ukubolekwa imali ngokweqile ngenani lenzalo ephezulu kakhulu yokwakha i-China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) ngaphansi kwephrojekthi yayo enkulu ye-BRI. Ngaphansi kwe-BRI, isiyonke amaphrojekthi angama-26, okuhlanganisa amadamu, imigwaqo, amabhuloho, nechweba laseGwadar, akhiwa izinkampani nabasebenzi baseChina ezweni lonke.
Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi njengoba zingekho izinkampani noma izakhamizi zasePakistan eziqashwe ngokuqondile, imali ibuyela eChina, futhi akukho okuzuzisayo mayelana nokuqashwa noma izinzuzo ezihlangene okwenzekayo ezakhamuzi zasePakistan. Esikhundleni salokho, amaphrojekthi adale usizi olukhulu kubantu abahlala eduze kwale phrojekthi.
Ngakho-ke, uhlelo lwaseChina lweBelt and Road lubonakala lwehlulekile, uma kubhekwa ukuthi amaphrojekthi amakhulu ngaphansi kwe-BRI awakakwazi ukukhiqiza imali noma aqedelwe ngesikhathi njengoba bekulindelekile.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba imali ebolekiwe ithathwa ngamanani enzalo ephezulu kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa namazinga omhlaba, ukukhokhelwa kwezikweletu zangaphandle zasePakistan nakho kunyukile. Manje iPakistan ithatha imali ebolekiwe ngamanani aphezulu okuhweba ukuze ikhokhe imali mboleko edlule.
Enye i-Loop iyaqhubeka….
Enye inkinga ehlobene nokungafani kwenqubekelaphambili yezomnotho kuzo zonke izifunda. I-Heart Of Pakistan, ikakhulukazi isifunda sase-Punjab ne-Sindh, ithuthuke kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa ne-Balochistan ne-KPK.
Kungani?
Ubufandamentali benkolo nokucwasa kuye kwalulaza abantu balezi zifunda, ikakhulukazi ezihlanganisa imiphakathi yase-Ahmedhiya nePashtun, ukuba babe izakhamuzi ezisezingeni lesibili ezweni lakubo.
Ezokuphepha kanye nobuphekula
Njengoba kukhathazeka ngokutshalwa kwezimali kwamanye amazwe, ukuntengantenga kwezombusazwe kanye nokwehla kwezokuphepha kuyisici esidumaza kakhulu kubatshalizimali bakwamanye amazwe ukuthi batshale imali kuleli. Ngaphandle kwalokho, isimo sengqondo sasePakistan sokuphehla impi nge-India sibangele izigidigidi zamaRandi ukuba ziguguleke.
Okunye okusithena amandla wukuhlaselwa okuphindelelayo kwabakwamanye amazwe. Lokhu kungafakazelwa ukuhlasela kwakamuva kwamaphekula kubantu baseShayina naseSri Lankan Nationals.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokwanda kobumpofu, iPakistan, osekuyimboni yamaphekula, ingase idale amaqembu amaphekula anabantu abaningi abangalahlekelwa lutho. Kuzokwenza futhi izinhlangano ezikhona zibe namandla, phakathi kwazo i-ISIS-Khorasan iyinkinga enkulu yesifunda sonke.
Njengoba iPakistan isohlwini olumpunga lwe-FATF, ububanzi bokutshalwa kwezimali kwamanye amazwe bube bubi nakakhulu.
Imali Efayo
I-Pakistani Rupee iwa mahhala futhi ibilokhu izungeza inani elingu-220 uma iqhathaniswa neDola laseMelika. Ngenxa yalokho, i-Pakistani Rupee isiphenduke imali esebenza kabi kakhulu eNingizimu ye-Asia, ngokwehla cishe ngo-16.5% ngoJuni kuphela.
Isimo siye saba sibi nakakhulu ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwamandla emali emhlabeni wonke. E-Pakistan, ukwehla kwamandla emali sekufinyelele ku-300% ngenxa yeZikhukhula nezimo ze-IMF. Futhi uma, njengoba kubonakala, umnotho womhlaba uwela esimweni sokuwohloka komnotho, iPakistan ngeke ibe nomoya omningi ongawuphefumula.
Manje, ukubuyela embuzweni wokuqala wokuthi kungani ukwehluleka kwePakistan kuzoba nomthelela emhlabeni naseNdiya. IPakistan ngokuba yizwe elinamandla eNuclear kwenza ibe nkulu kakhulu ukuthi ingahluleka. Uma izikhali zenuzi zifika ezandleni zamaphekula, umhlaba ungase ube nomonakalo ongenakulungiseka.
Isimo samanje
IPakistan ihlaselwe yizikhukhula kusukela ngo-2010, okudale ukwehla kwamandla emali kanye ne-Rupee yasePakistan yahlupheka kakhulu. Uhulumeni ulinganise ngokulahleka kwezigidigidi ezingama-40 zamarandi ngenxa yezikhukhula, kanti izindleko zingase zenyuke kakhulu. Abantu, asebevele behlushwa yi- ubunzima bezomnotho, manje zigcwele izikhukhula kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali.
Mayelana nezindawo zokushintshisana ngemali yangaphandle. IPakistan inemali egciniwe enenani elingamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili kuphela, engakwazi ukukhokhela amasonto ama-2 okuthenga kwamanye amazwe. Inkinga iphinde ibonakale ebhalansi ephezulu Yesikweletu Sokukhokha ($ 15 billion), ukuseviswa kwezikweletu, kanye nokwehla kwenani elikhulu kwe-Pakistani Rupee.
Ukuqhubekela phambili, udaba olubalulekile luphinde lubonakale ekuntulekeni kwenqubomgomo yezimali ehambisanayo yesikhathi eside. Isibonelo, inqubomgomo yentela yasePakistan ishintsha njalo ezinyangeni ezi-2-3 ngeziphathimandla zentela ezingafaneleki, okubonakala eqinisweni lokuthi inani elikhulu labantu bezwe namanje alikazikhokhi izintela.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, izwe licishe lavalwa ezimakethe ezizimele ngenxa yokusabalala okukhulu kwe-16% phakathi kwe-PKR enenani eliphansi neDola. Lokhu kuholele ekutshaleni imali kwephothifoliyo yangaphandle, ama-FDIs, neminye imithombo yokungena kwemali yangaphandle.
Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi leli lizwe seliyizwe elingenisa ukudla kwamanye amazwe, okuhlanganisa ukolweni, itiye noshukela.
Khonamanjalo, ukuhlasela kweRussia e-Ukraine sekuphenduke usawoti ocinene esilondeni ePakistan. Lokhu kuhlasela kudale ukwenyuka kwamanani kaphethiloli emhlabeni jikelele kanye nempahla. Kusho ukuthi manje iPakistan kufanele ikhokhe ngaphezulu ukuze ithenge inani elifanayo likaphethiloli noma impahla evela emazweni angaphandle.
Futhi njengoba ipolitiki yasePakistan igxile kakhulu emalini yamahhala kanye noxhaso, uhulumeni akakanyusi amanani ngokulandelayo, okuholele komunye umthwalo emalini yezwe.
Kodwa-ke, ngokugunyaza kwe-IMF ngemali mboleko, iPakistan yamukele imibandela ethile futhi yehlisa uxhaso kakhulu. Noma kunjalo, uhulumeni kufanele agcwalise imibandela eyengeziwe ukuze athole enye ingxenye yephakheji.
Yini Phambili?
Manje umbuzo uwukuthi, yini ngempela eyenzekayo ePakistan?
Njengoba isazi sezomnotho sasePakistan u-Atif Mian sithe, izwe likhipha ukukhula kwalo ngokuthatha izikweletu ezinkulu. Ngakho-ke, isibonelo, iPakistan yadlulisela iphrojekthi yayo yengqalasizinda e-China ngaphansi kwe-China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) ngokuthatha isikweletu kuyo. Manje ukukhetha kukumaShayina, futhi njengoba yonke imali ibuyela eShayina, akushiyi indawo yokukhula okuphindaphindekayo. Kuphambene nalokho esikubiza ngokuthi i-trickle-down economics.
Kungakho izithunywa zokukhula seziphenduke udeveli enkingeni yasePakistan.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukungazinzi kwezepolitiki yasePakistan kufanele kunakekelwe ukuze kubonakale isikhathi sokuzinza. Osopolitiki kumele basuke ezintweni zamahhala nepolitiki yezenkolo bagxile ekuphuzeni amaphilisi ababayo ukuze bathole ukukhululeka ngokushesha.
Njengoba osomnotho abaningana nabenzi bezinqubomgomo beshilo, uguquko luzoba buhlungu.
Singasho-ke ukuthi ukuntengantenga kwezombusazwe kudale isimo esikhona manje sasePakistan?
Ake sikuqonde lokhu; inkinga yezomnotho idalwe ngenxa yesiphetho sochungechunge olubi lwezehlakalo ezisakazeke isikhathi eside futhi zixhunywe ngokuqondile noma ngokungaqondile ochungechungeni olulodwa lokungazinzi kanye nokungakwazi ukusebenza Kwezombangazwe.
Lapha ukuntengantenga kwezombusazwe akupheleli kohulumeni kuphela, kodwa zonke izinhlangano zezombusazwe, kuhlanganise nezihlala njalo, sezifinyelele umvuthwandaba walokho esikubona namuhla.
Umbono lapha wukuthi izikhungo zezombangazwe nezomnotho ezizikhiphayo ziwumgogodla wokwenziwa kwanoma yiliphi izwe. Leli gama liye lachazwa ngokuningiliziwe encwadini ethi “Why Nations Fail?” okunikeza i-anecdote yomlando ejulile yokuthi amanye amazwe avela futhi ehluleka kanjani.
Uma sibheka iPakistan, sithi ohulumeni banesibopho ngeke kuthathwe njengesisekelo sempikiswano yokuthi ukuntengantenga kwezepolitiki kuyisizathu esiyinhloko senkinga yezomnotho. Inkohlakalo nokungakwazi ukusebenza okukhona kuzo zonke izikhungo kudle izisekelo zezwe.
Yize i-IMF imemezele iphakethe le-14 lePakistan la $ 1.1 billion ezigidigidini ezi-4 zamaRandi, izimiso zokuphatha eziyisisekelo azikasekeli izinguquko ezinkulu zezomnotho kanye nokulungiswa.
Imali mboleko ye-IMF nayo iza nemibandela. Icele uhulumeni ukuthi anyuse intengo kaphethiloli futhi ehlise izibonelelo zomxhaso ukuze kuthuthukiswe isikhwama sabo sombuso, okwenza uhulumeni abhekane nolaka lwezakhamizi. Lokhu kuzophinde kuthinte izakhamizi esezivele zahlaselwa yizikhukhula ezingapheli.
I-Pakistan ayinakho ukukhetha okuningi njengoba abalingani bayo bendabuko, okuhlanganisa i-Saudi Arabia, i-UAE, ne-China, basesimweni sokwelula ukwesekwa kwezezimali.
Ngakho-ke, kuzoba yisinqumo esinzima kuhulumeni. Yize isabelomali sakamuva sinqamule uxhaso kugesi nakuphethiloli, kuningi okufanele kwenziwe.
Uma iPakistan ifuna ukufakaza okuthile okubambekayo, kuleso simo, ukusungulwa kwayo kwezempi akufanele kuphambukise izibonelelo zakwamanye amazwe kanye nosizo enjongweni yazo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba siyisizwe esikhohlakele kakhulu, kufanele kuqinisekiswe ukuvuleleka ukuze kuhlinzekwe ukusatshalaliswa ngokulinganayo kosizo nezinqubomgomo ezweni lonke.
Okwamanje, okusobala ukuthi isimo ePakistan sizohlala sishintshashintsha, mhlawumbe siba sibi kakhulu. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kuzofinyelela phezulu okusha, njengoba i-IMF izoqinisekisa ukuthi iziphathimandla ziyafeza imibandela.
Noma iyiphi inhlekelele yemvelo engashintsha ukubukeka kwezwe kusuka kusathelayithi izoba nemiphumela yesikhathi eside. Nge 33 abantu abayizigidi, kuhlanganise nezingane eziyizigidi ezingu-16, ezifundeni ezingu-118 ezikhahlamezwe yizikhukhula eziqhubekayo, izinombolo azikho ndawo maduze nje, futhi ukulungisa umonakalo kuzothatha imali nesikhathi esiningi.
Njengoba izikhukhula zithinte izifunda ezimpofu kakhulu zasePakistan, maningi amathuba okunyuka kwezenzo zamaphekula kanye namaqembu ahlukanayo.
Kwamasosha, ngoDisemba 2022, ubuholi bezempi buzoshintsha. Kodwa-ke, njengoba amasosha ewagxilise amandla awo kuyo yonke imikhakha, akukho lapho okuzodedela khona ubuholi bentando yeningi.
Njengoba kunesibalo esikhulu sabantu abayizigidi ezingama-220, okubalulekile okufanele sikuqaphele ukuthi izwe elikhulu njengePakistan, noma iRussia imbala, iletha indima enkulu emnothweni womhlaba. Yingakho ubuholi beGlobal bungakwazi ukuziba indlovu egunjini.
Hhayi ngalesi sikhathi!
Njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kufinyelele ngaphezu kwama-300% ePakistan ehlaselwe yizikhukhula, izwe lisekude ukuhamba.
Inkinga yezomnotho yasePakistan ayilingani neSri Lanka. Isizathu siwukuthi uma izwe elinabantu abaningi, onqenqemeni lokuwa, linezikhali zenuzi futhi liyisibeletho sobushokobezi, amazwe angomakhelwane nomhlaba jikelele, awukwazi ukukushaya indiva ukuba khona kwalo okufayo.
shiya impendulo