Umqedazwe we-coronavirus uthinte iSri Lanka hhayi nje ngokwempilo yabantu kanye nesimo semisebenzi kodwa njengokuwa okukhulu kwesimo somnotho wezwe.
Izindawo ezigciniwe zaseSri Lanka zehle zafinyelela cishe ku- $ 1.6 billion kusukela ngoNovemba 2021, okuthuse izwe lonke.
Njengoba izimali zamazwe angaphandle zidonsa ngokushesha futhi zikhwabanisela ogibeni lwezikweletu, izwe libhekene nenkinga enkulu kunazo zonke ezake zaba khona.
ISri Lanka isengcupheni yokuqothuka, njengoba izakhamizi ezingaphezu kwengxenye yesigidi zicwila ebumpofu kusukela ngo-2020.
Isihloko sethu sizokhuluma ngakho konke mayelana nenkinga yaseSri Lanka, lapho yavela khona, nokuthi ibheke kuphi.
Inkinga yaseSri Lankan: Isingeniso esifushane
ISri Lanka ibone ukwanda kwezikweletu kudala ngaphambi kobhubhane lwe-coronavirus kusukela ngo-2014.
Kodwa-ke, isikweletu sifinyelele cishe ku-43% we-GDP yezwe ngo-2019 futhi siye saba sibi kakhulu kusukela ngaleso sikhathi. Ngo-2021, isikweletu sabo sangaphandle sase senyuke safinyelela ku-101% we-GDP yezwe, okubangele ukuwohloka okukhulu komnotho.
Izwe linemalimboleko ecishe ibe ngamabhiliyoni angama-3.5 emalimboleko evela eChina kuphela kanye nenani elingaphezudlwana kwezigidigidi ezingama-62 zamaRandi e-US. Izwe futhi lifuna amaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-500 eNdiya ukuze akhokhele ukuthenga kukawoyela ongahluziwe phakathi nale nkinga.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali eSri Lanka kufinyelele ku-11.1%, okuyirekhodi eliphezulu ngoNovemba, futhi kwenyuse amanani ezimpahla ezingeni elingakaze libonwe ngaphambili.
Lokhu sekuholele ekutheni iningi labantu baseSri Lanka lithwale kanzima ukondla imindeni yabo ngisho nezinto eziyisisekelo nezidingekayo.
Umongameli, uGotabaya Rajapaksa, umemezele isimo esiphuthumayo sezomnotho, futhi amasosha anikezwe umsebenzi wokunakekela izinto ezibalulekile njengerayisi noshukela, okuthengiswa ngamanani amisiwe kahulumeni.
Nokho, lokhu akubasizanga kangako abantu.
Umthelela ongalingani wobhubhane lwe-coronavirus
Lo bhubhane awuzange ushaye yonke imikhakha yezomnotho yaseSri Lankan ngokulinganayo. Izimboni zithinteke kakhulu uma ziqhathaniswa nezolimo kanye nezinsiza. Njengoba bekunesidingo esiphansi saphakade, imikhakha emincane egxile ekuthumeleni kwamanye amazwe ibe nomthelela omubi.
Ezokwakha, ezokukhiqiza izindwangu, kanye nemikhakha efanayo ezwela kakhulu ekushaqisweni kwezidingo yiyona ehlupheke kakhulu.
I-Moody's, i-Fitch, ne-S&P zehlise izilinganiso zazo ezizimele zase-Sri Lankan ngenxa yomthelela omubi wesikweletu ezweni.
Izizathu ezintathu ezinkulu zokuwa kwesilinganiso kube ubungozi bangaphandle obukhulisiwe, amabhalansi ezimali abuthaka, kanye nezinketho ezilinganiselwe zezimali.
Njengoba abantu abaphila ngaphansi komugqa wobuphofu nabo sebande kakhulu, sekuthinte kakhulu abantu abasebenza ezindaweni zasemadolobheni njengezifundazwe zaseNtshonalanga ngenxa yomthelela wezimboni.
Izifundazwe zase-Nothern, Uva, Eastern, kanye neSabaragamuwa nazo zibe nomthelela omkhulu ngenxa yesibalo sabantu esivele simpofu endaweni, ngokombiko weBhange Lomhlaba.
Inkinga yezomnotho izithinte kanzima kangakanani izakhamizi zaseSri Lanka?
“Manje sesithenga amagremu ayi-100 kabhontshisi ngesikhathi sithenga ikhilogremu isonto lonke’ kusho omunye waseSri Lanka ngesikhathi edalula nokuthi izitolo zegilosa seziqalile kanjani ukuvula amaphakethe empusha yobisi ziwahlukanise amaphakethe angu-100 grams lilinye ngoba akukho muntu okwaziyo. ukwazi ukukhokhela iphakethe lonke.
Umthombo oyinhloko wezwe wemali engenayo ezokuvakasha, eziye zehla kakhulu kulezi zinyanga ezimbalwa ezedlule.
Bangaphezu kuka-200,000 abantu abalahlekelwe yimisebenzi emkhakheni wezokuvakasha nezokuvakasha, futhi isimo siya ngokuba sibi kakhulu.
Inengi labantu abasakhulayo kanye lezakhamizi ezifundileyo zelizwe sebethe ujenga emawofisini amapasi ukuze baphume elizweni ngokuphangisa bayeqala impilo entsha kwenye indawo ngoba besaba ukubhajwa kule nkinga bangaze basinde.
Isheduli yokukhokha imali mboleko yaseSri Lanka
Izwe kulindeleke ukuthi likhokhe imali ebolekiwe engama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-7.3 zamarandi emalimboleko yangaphandle neyasekhaya, kanti amaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-500 kube ngeyamazwe ngamazwe. isibopho sobukhosi imali okumele ikhokhwe ekupheleni kukaJanuwari.
Izwe selisondele ekukhokheleni izikweleti zalo zikawoyela ezedlule e-Iran ngokubakhokhela ngetiye, ngokubathumelela itiye elibiza izigidi ezinhlanu zamadola ngenyanga.
Nokho, lokhu kubonakala kulula ukukusho kunokukwenza. Ilungu lePhalamende eliphikisayo uHarsha de Silva uthe isikweletu sangaphandle esiphelele kulindeleke ukuthi sibe ngama- $ 4.8 billion ngo-2022, okushiya izwe lisesimweni sokuqothuka ngokuphelele.
Ukuntuleka kokudla eSri Lanka
Isinqumo sikamongameli sokwenqabela wonke umquba kanye nezibulala-zinambuzane ezinyangeni ezizayo ukuze kuphoqwe abalimi ukuthi baqale ukulima ngaphandle kwesixwayiso sehlile nasembonini yezolimo.
Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi imboni yayisetshenziselwa kakhulu ukukhiqiza umkhiqizo ngokusebenzisa umanyolo nezibulala-zinambuzane ukulwa nokhula nezinambuzane, futhi abalimi abaningi manje besaba ukulahlekelwa okukhulu futhi baziphindiselela ngokulima noma yiziphi izilimo.
Lokhu sekuholele ekwentuleni okukhulu kokudla ezweni, okuholele ekwehleni kwezidingo kanye nesidingo esengeziwe okuholela ekwenyukeni kwamanani entengo.
Kodwa-ke, isinqumo sokuvimbela ukungeniswa komanyolo sasuswa ngo-Okthoba 2021 ukuze kuqalwe kabusha ukusebenza komlando wokulima.
Yize kunjalo ukususwa kwesivimbelo akwenzanga mehluko omkhulu njengoba uhulumeni ehlulekile ukuxhasa umanyolo ngenxa yokushoda kwemali.
Abalimi bathwele nzima ngitsho lokukhokhela indleko zomvundiso asebewuthengile kwamanye amazwe, ingasaphathwa eyokuwathenga ngentengo engancediswanga. Ngaphezu kwalokho, bayanqena ukutshala imali ekukhiqizeni izitshalo ngoba abanaso isiqiniseko sokuthi bazokwenza inzuzo ngayo.
Izinyathelo zokusiza zesikhashana ezifana nemigqa yezikweletu zokungenisa imithi, uphethiloli, nokudla okuvela komakhelwane abanjengeNdiya ziyathathwa.
Ukushintshaniswa kwezimali kuyenzeka ne-India, Bangladesh, kanye ne-China, njengoba kuqhubeka izikweletu zokuthenga uphethiloli e-Oman.
Zonke lezi zinyathelo zenzelwe kuphela ukuhlinzeka ngokukhululeka kwesikhashana kule nkinga futhi kuzodingeka zibuyiselwe ngokushesha. Uma kungakhokhelwa ngesikhathi, kuzoholela kuphela enkingeni ebaluleke kakhulu yokuwela ogibeni lwezikweletu bese icwila ekugcineni.
Abantu bebelokhu bemile kulayini amahora amaningi ukuze bathenge i-1/4th yezimpahla ezibalulekile ezidingekayo ngoba akekho okwaziyo ukukhokhela abebekuthenge ngaphambili.
Ilayisi, ama-pulses, izithelo, izinhlanzi, imifino, isinkwa, nakho konke okunye kubone ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo, futhi iningi lemindeni ehola kancane enabasebenzi abahola nsuku zonke ayikwazi ukukhokhela ngisho nokudla okuyisisekelo ngesikhathi esisodwa. Ngisho nengxenye yezwe ecebe kakhulu izama ukunciphisa ukudla abakudlayo kwansuku zonke.
Ukukhiqizwa kwetiye kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ngo-50%, okwenza inkinga yokudla ibe nzima nakakhulu.
Yini eyaholela enhlekeleleni yezomnotho yaseSri Lanka?
Yize lo bhubhane ube neqhaza elikhulu ekukhuliseni ubunzima bezomnotho eSri Lanka ngenxa yokuvalwa nokuncipha kwezokuvakasha nezokuvakasha, kuningi okuwohlokayo komnotho waseSri Lanka.
- Ukusetshenziswa kwemali ephezulu nguhulumeni obusayo
- Ukwehliswa kwentela okuthinta imali engenayo yezwe
- Imali engenayo yokushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe iyehla
- Izimali mboleko ezinkulu ezivela eChina eminyakeni embalwa edlule
- I-Sri Lankan rupee ibilokhu iphahlazeka emakethe ye-forex.
Impendulo kahulumeni
Impendulo evela kuhulumeni ixubile. Ezinye izikhulu zikahulumeni zikholelwa ukuthi izwe lizokwazi ukukhokha ingxenye enkulu yemali ebolekiwe, kuyilapho abanye bekholelwa ukuthi izwe lizoba sengozini ekupheleni kuka-2022.
ILungu lePhalamende u-de Silva libalule ukuthi ukuphela kwekhambi lokulwa nale nkinga ukufuna usizo ku-International Monetary Fund.
Izisombululo zasekhaya zizoba ezesikhashana, futhi ukuze kutholwe isixazululo saphakade, i-IMF iyona kuphela inhlangano engasiza izwe liphume ogibeni lwayo lwezikweletu.
Izikhulu ziphinde ziveze ukuthi zicabanga ukuthi izwe selizodinga ukuboleka imali efana nommbila emazweni iSri Lanka engabangani nawo ukuze kondle izakhamizi zayo.
Ibhange eliphakathi belilokhu licela izakhamizi ukuthi zishintshe okuxekethile kanye nemali yangaphandle ukuze iqinise i-rupee yaseSri Lankan ngangokunokwenzeka. Ezinye izindlela zokusiza zesikhashana ziyenziwa, njengoba kuxoxwe ngazo ekuqaleni.
Usizo lwemali elinganiselwa ku-$1.9 billion kuxoxwa ngayo ne-India, kanye nokushintshaniswa kwamadola ayizigidi ezingu-400 kanye nekhredithi kaphethiloli yezigidi ezingu-500.
Usizo olufanayo seluxoxiwe ne-Bangladesh kanye ne-China futhi. Ama-International Sovereign Bondholders ayacelwa ukuthi aphinde axoxisane.
Izwe lidinga ukubuyisela imali eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane zamaRandi ngoNtulikazi, kanti abatshalizimali bayabuzwa ukuthi bangavuma yini ukutshala kabusha ukuze izwe likwazi ukuqeda le nkinga ngokusemandleni.
Umongameli ukuqinisekisile ukuthi izinsiza zokusiza ngeke ziphinde zinyuse izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali, futhi ngeke kube khona izethulo ezintsha zentela ukuqinisekisa ukuthi abantu abafakwa ngaphansi komthwalo owengeziwe wezezimali.
Asikho isinqumo se-IMF esithathiwe nge-bailout package kusukela manje.
Yini engenziwa iSri Lanka ukuze inqobe le nkinga?
- Ukukhula kweholo labasebenzi kumele kugxilwe kukho, ngisho nasezimbonini ezingezona ezasemapulazini ukuqinisekisa ukuthi abantu abahlala emaphethelweni bayaphakanyiswa kuqala.
- Ukusebenzela ukukhulisa umkhiqizo wezolimo ezweni kanye nenzuzo yalo ngoguquko lwesakhiwo
- Abalimi kufanele basekelwe ukuze basebenze nezitshalo ezigxile ekuthengiseni kwamanye amazwe nezinenani eliphezulu.
- Ubuchwepheshe obuhlakaniphile besimo sezulu, ukufinyelela kwe-value chain kanye ne-agro-logistics kufanele kuthuthukiswe.
- Ukutshalwa kwezimali kwamasu kwezokuvakasha nezokuvakasha kungasiza ukweseka abantu basezindaweni zasemakhaya.
- Imisebenzi engeyona eyasemapulazini eholelayo nayo kufanele igqanyiswe ukuze kusizwe abantu bakhethe izindawo ezikhiqizayo zokuziphilisa.
- Izinguquko ezibanzi kufanele zisekelwe ukuze kwakhiwe imisebenzi eyengeziwe futhi kuthuthukiswe ukukhiqizwa kwabasebenzi.
- Kufanele kubhekwane nemiphumela kanye nezimbangela zokungahleleki kahle.
- Uguquko lwezindawo kufanele lukhuthazwe ngokufakwa okuqinile ezweni lonke.
- Ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu kufanele kwenziwe kwezemfundo, ukuvikelwa komphakathi kanye nempilo.
- Izigaba zezwe ezisengozini enkulu kufanele zinikezwe usizo lokuqala njengoba kuyizo ezihlaselwe kakhulu yilesi simo esibucayi, kokubili kwezenhlalo nakwezezimali.
- Umthelela wenkinga emakethe yezabasebenzi kanye namafemu kufanele uqashwe njalo.
- I-Sri Lanka kufanele ihlukanise izilimo ezinenzuzo yezohwebo futhi itshale kakhulu ekuvikelekeni kokudla.
- Izikhungo zikahulumeni kumele zibone ukuthi kuwumsebenzi wazo ukwakha uhlaka lwezinkampani ezizimele ukuze zithuthukise izimali zezwe njengamanje.
- Imithetho yentela nenqubomgomo yaseSri Lanka idinga ukuqinisa futhi ibe nobungane bebhizinisi.
- I-red tape ethinta amabhizinisi kufanele inqanyulwe ngangokunokwenzeka.
- I-Supply chain Dynamics idinga ukuthuthukiswa ngosizo lwe-US ne-China.
- Zonke izinhlobo ezinhlanu zezimali, abantu, ngokomzimba, ezezimali, ezenhlalakahle kanye nemvelo zidinga usizo olulinganayo kuleli phuzu oluvela kuziphathimandla zaseSri Lankan.
- Ukufinyelela kwezinsiza ezindaweni zasemakhaya kufanele kwandiswe ukuze kusekelwe ukufakwa kwezimali yonke indawo.
- Uma isimo siba ngcono, kufanele kugxilwe kakhulu kubuchwepheshe bedijithali futhi zonke izinsiza zikahulumeni nazo kufanele zenziwe ngedijithali.
- .Imodeli yokukhula egxile ekuthumeleni kwamanye amazwe ehambisana nokukhula okuholwa yizimali kwangasese kufanele kushintshwe.
- Kufanele kuthintwe i-IMF ukuze bathole usizo oluningi ngangokunokwenzeka ukuze kubhekwane nenkinga.
- ISri Lanka kufanele futhi isebenzisane nochwepheshe bezomnotho ukuze bakhe uhlaka lwezomnotho esizweni ukuze silwe nale nkinga.
Yini enye engahamba kabi emnothweni waseSri Lanka?
Uma unganakekelwa ngokushesha, umnotho waseSri Lanka ungangena esimeni sokwehla kwamandla emali, esifana neseVenezuela.
Ngemuva kwalokho, awekho amathuba okuthi ibuyele esimweni sayo sokuqala, njengoba izwe laseNingizimu Melika liye lafakaza eminyakeni embalwa edlule.
Kukhona nokwesaba uhlelo lwezemfundo kanye nokuqashwa kwabafundi baseSri Lanka esikhathini esizayo kuyaphazamiseka ngenxa yokungafinyeleleki kwezinsizakalo ze-inthanethi ezweni.
Uma kungalungiswanga ngesikhathi, kungenzeka ukuthi ikusasa labantu baseSri Lankans libandakanya ukungqubuzana kwamakhono lapho abafundi bengeke besakwazi ukuthola imisebenzi.
Lokhu kuzoholela odabeni lwezibalo zabantu njengoba abantu abasebenza ezweni bezothola kunzima ukukhokhelwa okuholela enkingeni yezimali ejulile kamuva.
Njengoba i-rupee yaseSri Lankan isivele yehle ngaphezu kuka-20% uma iqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika, ukungathathi izinyathelo ezisheshayo kungaholela ekuweni kwemali yaseSri Lanka nangaphezulu. Lokhu kungaholela enkingeni ye-forex enzima kakhulu engeke ilapheke.
Okokugcina, uma i-EU inquma ukukhansela isimo sezohwebo esikhethekile saseSri Lanka esibiza amaRandi ayizigidi ezingu-360 njalo ngonyaka, lokho kungaba nomthelela omubi nakakhulu kwezomnotho ngokuphelele.
Isiphetho
Izwe likwenye yezindawo zalo ezimbi kakhulu, njengoba uhulumeni engakwazi ukukhokhela ngisho nezinsizakalo ze-IT eziyisisekelo njenge-Google Amamephu.
Uhulumeni uqinisekisa izakhamizi ukuthi zisebenzela ukwenza uhlelo olusiza izwe ukuthi liphume kulolu gibe lwezikweletu, kodwa akukho okucacile okwamanje.
Kunezimakethe eziningana kanye nemikhakha iSri Lanka ekweleta yona, futhi ngokucabangela isimo samanje, lapho ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhuphuka futhi wonke umnotho uwohloka, kunzima ukukholelwa noma yiluphi uhlangothi lwendaba.
Kukhona iphakethe elisha lokusiza kwezomnotho lika-$1.2 billion elihlanganisa nesibonelelo sanyanga zonke sama-Rs. Iziboshwa ezingu-5000 kuya ku-1.5 million, izisebenzi zikahulumeni, namasosha akhubazeke ngendlela ehlukile - kodwa ukuthi kusiza kanjani ukubuyisela umnotho ezinyaweni zawo kuyokwenzeka kuphela uma imiphumela ibonakala ingokoqobo.
shiya impendulo