Phakathi kwezinxushunxushu zezombusazwe kanye nemibhikisho esabalele ezweni lonke, isimo sezomnotho saseBrazil sithe nhlo nakulo nyaka. Izinga lokukhula elihlongozwayo laseBrazil lizohlala liku-0.8% ngo-2023, eliphansi kakhulu kunonyaka odlule.
Izwe elinomlando wezinkinga zomnotho liphinde labona igalelo ekukhuleni kwalo ngenxa yezizathu eziningi zezepolitiki nezomnotho ezikhona ngaphakathi nangaphandle kwezwe.
Imibhikisho, ukwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni jikelele, impi yaseRussia-Ukraine kanye nenani eliqinayo ledola laseMelika kube nomthelela omubi ekukhuleni kwemisebenzi yaseBrazil, ukusetshenziswa kwemali kwabathengi, amaholo angempela kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali emikhakheni yonke.
Kodwa-ke, iBrazil yabona ukukhula okukhuphukayo ngoMashi 2023 okokuqala ngqa kusukela ngo-Okthoba 2022, ngokwengxenye ngenxa yohlaka lwezimali olusha kanye nokukhuphuka kwayo yonke imali enqwabelene yohwebo, ngaleyo ndlela ibonise izimpawu ezinhle zokuthuthuka okusesilinganisweni kumnotho wonkana.
Lesi sihloko sizocubungula ngokujulile isimo samanje somnotho waseBrazil nokuthi yini elindele izwe lesi-5 ngobukhulu emhlabeni.
Izimbangela
Umnotho waseBrazil kulindeleke ukuthi wehle usuka ku-3% ukukhula ngo-2022 yaya ku-0.8% ngo-2023, futhi izici eziningana ezidlalwayo zaholela ekwehleni okukhulu okunjalo.
Yehlisa Emsebenzini
Kube nokwenyuka okukhulu kwezinga lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi ezweni lonke njengoba umnotho ubulokhu wehla kusukela iCovid-19.
Konke ukungasebenzi inyuke yafinyelela ku-8.6% ngoFebhuwari 2023 isuka ku-7.9% ngoDisemba 2022, okuholele ekutheni abantu abayizigidi eziyi-1.5 balahlekelwe yimisebenzi ngoNovemba 2022. Ngenxa yalokho, amaholo angempela ezisebenzi nawo ehle okokuqala ngqa ngoFebhuwari 2023 kusukela ngo-Ephreli 2022.
Amanani wenzalo ephakeme
The I-Central Bank yaseBrazil ibilokhu inyusa amanani enzalo ukuze iqede ukwehla kwamandla emali. Kodwa-ke, lokhu kukhuphule izindleko zokuboleka kwamabhizinisi futhi kwanciphisa nokusetshenziswa kwabathengi.
Manje abantu sebethanda ukonga ngenxa yokwehla kwamandla emali, ukwehla kwamaholo nokuvikeleka kwemisebenzi. Izinga lenqubomgomo yamanje lihlala liku-13.75% futhi belifana kusukela ngo-Agasti 2022.
I-Outlook yengozi
Mayelana nokutshalwa kwezimali, izinga lenzalo ephezulu yase-Brazil, ukwehla kwezindleko zabathengi kanye neziyaluyalu zezombusazwe kwenyuse ubungozi kubatshalizimali emakethe. Isibonelo, iBrazil ikleliswe endaweni yama-91 emazweni ayi-153 ngokwezibalo I-GlobalData Country Risk Index.
Amaphuzu ezwe (angama-49.4 kwabayi-100) angaphezulu kwelaseLatin America (48.6) kanye nele-World's Average (45). Kodwa-ke, uma kukhulunywa ngengcuphe enkulu yezomnotho kanye nesakhiwo senhlalo yabantu kanye nenani labantu, iBrazil isasebenza kangcono kuneLatin America.
Izinxushunxushu Zezombangazwe
NgoJanuwari 2023, kwaqubuka imibhikisho emikhulu phakathi kwezinhlangothi zalowo owayenguMongameli uBolsonaro kanye noMongameli wamanje, uLuiz Lula da Silva.
U-Lula wawina ukhetho ngemaji encane ngo-Okthoba 2022, kodwa imiphumela ayizange yamukelwe u-Bolsanaro, okubangele ukucasuka okukhulu phakathi kwabalandeli bakhe nokuholele ezibhedeni ezinkulu nokuphanga enhloko-dolobha yaseBrazil, eBrasilia.
Nakuba imibhikisho isimisiwe, ukusimama komnotho kuzobonakala ngendlela yokucasuka kubantu asebekhungethwe ukwehla kwamandla emali kanye nokuntuleka kwemisebenzi.
Uhlangothi Olukhanyayo
Khuphuka Kwezokuvakasha
Ngokusho kweWorld Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), imboni yezokuvakasha ibambe iqhaza 6% ye-GDP yase-Brazil ngo-2021 futhi yadala eyodwa kuyo yonke imisebenzi eyi-1 ezweni.
Ngemuva kwe-Covid-19 kanye nezinxushunxushu zakamuva zasekhaya, imboni yezokuvakasha yaseBrazil ithinteke kabi kule minyaka embalwa edlule.
Lokhu kubonakala kushintsha njengoba umnotho uvuleka, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi iBrazil izobona ukwanda kwabahambi besuka ezigidini ezingu-2.22 ngo-2021 baye ezigidini ezi-3 ngo-2023. Imali engenayo kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ku-$ 16.36 Billion ngo-2023 ngezinga lokukhula konyaka 3.80%.
Ukwandiswa Kwempahla Ethunyelwayo
Ngomunye Idatha Yomhlaba Wonke, umnotho waseBrazil kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule kangcono kunoontanga bayo baseLatin America. Isibonelo, i-Argentina ne-Chile kulindeleke ukuthi zikhule ku-0% kanye -0.6% ngokulandelana kulo nyaka.
Izinga eliphezulu lokukhula lilinganiselwa ngenxa yokwenyuka kwempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle njengoba umnotho waseShayina uvuleka, ohlanganisa u-30% wemikhiqizo ethunyelwa ngaphandle yaseBrazil iyonke.
Ngenxa yeMpi YaseRussia-Ukraine, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwezinto ezibalulekile zokudla, okuhlanganisa ushukela, ubhontshisi wesoya, amafutha adliwayo njll., kuzokhuphuka njengoba kusethelwe ukugcwalisa igebe lokuhlinzekwa elidalwe ngenxa yempi. IBrazil isivele ingumthengisi omkhulu kunabo bonke kabhontshisi kasoya, futhi kulo nyaka, isibone nesivuno esingcono kakhulu.
Ukunciphisa I-Inflation
Idola eliqinisayo kanye nokwehla kokunikezwa kwezinto ezibalulekile zokudla ngenxa yempi yaseRussia-Ukraine kuye kwaholela ekwenyukeni kwamandla emali emhlabeni wonke, futhi iBrazil nayo iyafana.
I-Central Bank yase-Brazil, i-Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), izama ukwehlisa amandla emali ngokukhuphula izilinganiso zenzalo kusukela ngo-2021, ngaphambi kwanoma yimuphi umnotho omkhulu.
Izinga lenqubomgomo yamanje ye-BCB ngu-13.75% elingakashintshi kusukela ngo-August 2022. Ngenxa yalezi zinyathelo zenqubomgomo, ukwehla kwamandla emali okuyinhloko, ngaphandle kokudla namandla, kwehle kwaya ku-7.3% ngoMashi 2023 isuka ku-10.9% ngoJuni. 2022.
Njengoba sazi, amaholo angempela ayehla, okuye kwaholela ekwehleni kwezindleko, okubangela ukwehla okwengeziwe kwezinga lokwehla kwamandla emali. Ngakho-ke, njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kwehla, kuye kwaholela ekwenyukeni kokuzethemba kwabathengi, okuwuphawu oluhle emnothweni.
Uhlaka Lwezimali Oluthuthukisiwe
Uhulumeni ubezabalaza ukulinganisa inqubomgomo yakhe yezimali kusukela ku-Covid-19 ngoba uthathe isinqumo sokuxhasa abantu abaningi ngezimali futhi wehlise umthwalo kubantu.
Ngenxa yalokhu, uHulumeni ube nokushoda ngo-4.5% we-GDP yakhe, kanti isikweletu sonke sasilingana ne 70% ye-GDP yayo.
Uhlaka lwezimali oluthuthukisiwe luzogcina ukusetshenziswa kwezimali kusesimweni ngenkathi kuqinisekisa ukuncipha kokushoda kanye nezikweletu ezweni lonke. Yize isadinga ukugunyazwa yiCongress, kuyisinyathelo esamukelekayo ukugcina uzinzo wayo kwezezimali 2025.
Ukutshalwa Kwezimali Kwangaphandle
Ngo-2022, iBrazil yacishe yaphinda kabili Ukutshalwa Kwezimali Okuqondile Kwangaphandle kuya ku-$90.6 billion, okuyimali enkulu eyangena emkhakheni wezamandla nobuchwepheshe. Ngesikhathi Sobhubhane, Izinkampani zincamele i-Brazil ekutshaleni imali kwazo ngenxa yokwamukelwa okuphezulu kwe-inthanethi nengqalasizinda yezobuchwepheshe.
Ngokushuba okukhulayo phakathi kwe-US neChina, iBrazil isizuze isisekelo njengoba izinkampani zase-US zishintshanisa isizinda sazo sokusebenza nokukhiqiza zisuka eChina ziye kwamanye amazwe, okuhlanganisa neBrazil. Ngokufanayo, izinkampani zaseShayina zishintshele ukusebenza kwazo eBrazil ngenxa yokucutshungulwa okuphezulu nguHulumeni wase-US mayelana nezinsongo zobunhloli nemikhuba ehlangene.
Ukukhula kwezwe lonke kusalokhu kuphansi ngenxa yokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nezinga lenzalo ephezulu elibekwe yi-BCB, okubangela ukwehla kokusetshenziswa kwemali. Noma kunjalo, umzila wokukhula wesikhathi eside usalokhu ulungile, futhi uma ukwehla kwamandla emali kufinyelela ekuhlosweni kweBhange Elikhulu, kuzokwehla amazinga enqubomgomo, okubangela ukunyuka kwezinga lokukhula kwezwe.
Isiphetho
Njengoba umnotho wakuleli usakhula ngesivinini esincane, kusenethemba lokuthi ukukhula kweBrazil kuzokhula ngesivinini ekupheleni kwalo nyaka.
Lokhu kuzokwenzeka ngesikhathi lapho iminotho emikhulu yomhlaba izokwehla ngenxa yokuwohloka komnotho emhlabeni.
Kodwa-ke, izinqubomgomo zikahulumeni zamanje ezisekela kwesokunxele kanye nezinhlelo zamahhala zingase zibe isisekelo sengxabano ekusetshenzisweni ngempumelelo kohlaka olusha lwezimali uma luphasiswa ngempumelelo.
Izwe elinomnotho wezigidigidi ezingu-1.89 linamandla okudlula emazingeni okwehla kwamandla omnotho futhi lizibonele ngesivinini ekukhuleni kwalo uma ipolitiki yasekhaya ihlala izinzile nezinqubomgomo eziphusile ezisekelwe ezinkomba zezomnotho kunokuba kusetshenziswe izindlela zokukhuthaza abantu abaningi.
shiya impendulo