Munguva pfupi yapfuura, Zimbabwe yanga iri munhau nezvikonzero zvisizvo. Kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika, kurwisana kweboka kunotsigirwa nehurumende maererano nemarudzi & hyperinflation zvose zvakanga zviri kugadzirwa kwenyika ine kusagadzikana.
Kurumidza-mberi kusvika nhasi uye mufananidzo wacho unopesana zvachose. Munyika mune kugadzikana mune zvematongerwo enyika nekudzoka kwedemocracy inomiririra, nzanga haina kupatsanurwa sezvayaive pakakwirira uye hupfumi hwawedzera.
Nepo zvematongerwo enyika uye zvemagariro zvisiri zvikwereti zvedu, zvinonakidza kuti mushure mekurova 800%+ inflation yepagore muna 2020, nyika yakangorumbidzwa neWorld Bank kuitira kupora kwakasimba munheyo dzehupfumi.
Kuti tizive kuti Zimbabwe yakakwanisa sei kuita izvi, tinonyura muzvinhu zvese macroeconomics nechinangwa chekudzidza zvakawanda.
1. Makore Akarasika - 1997-2009
1.1 Mavambo Akazvininipisa
– Zimbabwe – GDP Growth Trend
Zimbabwe, yaimbonzi Rhodesia, inyika yakakomberedzwa nenyika dziri kuchamhembe kweAfrica yakawana hutongi hweveruzhinji muna 1980 mushure mehondo yenguva refu pakati pevachena vaitonga vashoma nevatema vazhinji.
Chibvumirano cheLancaster House, icho chakagumisa hondo, chakaendesa masimba kuhutongi hwevatema uku chichichengetedza kodzero dzerusununguko rwevaridzi vevhu vachena avo, sevagari vemunyika, vakazvizivisa sevanhu vemuAfrica vakasarudza kusadzokera kuBritain.
Kwemakore 17 akatevera, nyika yakanakidzwa nekugadzikana kubva mune zvematongerwo enyika uye zvemagariro maonero kunyangwe hupfumi hwehupfumi uye kutenderera kwebhavhu kuchienderera, izvo zvinowanzoitika kune nyika dzichiri kusimukira dzine kuvimba kwakanyanya pazvinhu zvekutanga. Nokudaro, mitengo yepasi rose yezvicherwa nezvirimwa yairaira kushanda kwakati kwoupfumi hwenyika kana kuti kusanaya kwemvura kunodzokororwa kwaizokanganisa zvikuru kugadzirwa kwezvokudya zvachose.
1.2. Black November 1997
MunaNovember 1997, mushure mekutambudzika kukuru pamusika wemari kuparara, kushaya simba kwehupfumi kwakapararira mumhirizhonga huru yevanhu. Vainyanya kurwisa kuoma kweupfumi hwenyika vaive varwiri vehondo yevagari vemunyika.
Zvakakosha kuti titaure pano kuti panguva iyi, vaimbova mutungamiri wenyika, VaRobert Mugabe, vakanga vava nemakore gumi nemanomwe vachitonga. Semutungamiri wevapanduki akanga arwa munhandare yehondo ndokuwana kugadzirisana kwezvematongerwo enyika kwakaita kuti ruzhinji rutonge, aive munhu airemekedzwa zvikuru.
Pasi pehutungamiriri hwake, varwi vehondo vakanga vasiya zvombo uye pakave nekuedza kukuru kwakaitwa kuti vadzoserwe muzvishandiso zveupfumi asi zvakabudirira zvishoma zvichipihwa zviwanikwa zvenyika.
Zvakabva panzvimbo yekushaya simba & kutyityidzira kwaifungidzirwa kubva munzvimbo yavo yekutonga uko President Mugabe vakazivisa chirongwa chekubatsira hupfumi kufadza varwi vehondo. Dambudziko chete raiva rekuti purogiramu yaizobhadhara 3% yeGDP nenzira yekubhadhara bhonasi yenguva imwe chete!
1.3 Inonetsa 98 & 99
Nyika yanga isina mari yekubhadhara bhonasi. Vakatanga vaedza kukwidza zvimwe chetezvo kuburikidza nemutero waishorwa zvikuru nevemabhizimisi.
Vakabva vatanga kukwereta izvo zvakaita kuti dhora reZimbabwe riwane simba. Mari yenyika yakaramba ichishaikwa sezvo yakapinda muchirongwa chenyika dzakawanda muna 1998 muhondo yechipiri yeCongo. 1999 yakaunza kusanaya kwemvura & kukanganisa kwepamutemo pazvisungo zvechikwereti.
1.4. Land Reform
Nekuondomoka kwehupfumi hwenyika zvichiratidza kusamira zvakanaka kwezvinhu munyaya dzezvematongerwo enyika, Hurumende yakadzora pfungwa dzeruzhinji nekutanga mutemo wekuvandudza ivhu, apo minda yaive nevagari vechichena yaizogoverwa kuvarimi vatema. Mhirizhonga yakawanda yakatevera, vachena vakabva vabuda munyika uye vachishurikidzwa nepasi rose zvichikonzera zvirango zvakatemerwa nyika yacho pachayo.
Kukanganisa kwaita hupfumi hwenyika kwakaipisisa, sezvo zvirango zvakaomesa mukana wekutsvaga mari kubva kune dzimwe nyika. Nekune rimwe divi, kurima kwakadzikira sezvo varimi vechitema vakashaya nzira kana hunyanzvi hwekuita kurima kwakakura vachishandisa michina uye vakatanga kurima goho repasi.
Izvi zvinodaro nekuti nyika zhinji dzakatorwa nechisimba, uye "varidzi" vatema vatsva vaive vasina magwaro akakodzera ekuti vasvike. mabhanga ekushandisa mari.
1.5. Hyperinflation
Kuderera kwehuwandu hwehupfumi kubva pazvirango uye kukanganisa kwekuvandudzwa kwevhu kune mhirizhonga zvakawedzera kukanganisa pamari yehurumende. Hurumende yakatanga kukwereta zvaikwanisa, asi zvikuru ichidhinda mari.
Mhedzisiro yacho yaive yekuti kubva muna 2004 kusvika 2009, nyika yakabatwa mune yakadzika hyperinflationary spiral nekukwira kwemitengo kwakakwira pa6,600% nedzimwe fungidziro. Dhora remuZimbabwe harichavimbiki zvachose uye Hurumende yakabva yatanga kugadzirisa mitengo. Izvi zvakatowedzera dambudziko sezvo ruzhinji rwakaenda kuhupfumi husina kurongwa.
2. Makore gumi eDollarization
2.1. Matanho Okutanga
Muna 2009, mapato matatu ezvematongerwo enyika muParamende akabvumirana kuumba Hurumende yeNational Unity kuti iite mabhindauko ezvehupfumi anorwadza asi paine tarisiro yekuti kubatana pamwe nekugadzikana mune zvematongerwo enyika kuchaunza nzvimbo yakanaka yekubatsira kudzoreredza hupfumi hwenyika.
Danho rekutanga rakatorwa neHurumende itsva muna Kukadzi 2009 apo yakanyoresa zviri pamutemo kushandiswa kwemari yekunze muhupfumi hwenyika. Zvakazoitika ndezvekuti pakazosvika Kubvumbi 2009, dhora remuZimbabwe rakanga ratota rikasavimbika uye rakabva ramiswa zvachose. US$ yakava mari yepamutemo yekutengeserana kweHurumende.
2.2 Kutanga Impact
Mhedzisiro yekutama uku yaive yakanaka kwazvo. Inflation yakadzokera shure, hurongwa hwebhangi hwakagadzikana & kukura kwehupfumi kwakatanga. Zvisinei, paiva nemigumisiro yakaipa zvakare:
- Vanhu vakaramba vasingavimbi nemabhanga uye vakachengeta mari yavo muhupfumi husina kurongeka, iyo yakaramba ichinetsa pamari yeruzhinji, ichimanikidza Hurumende kuti iite mubhadharo.
- Izvi zvakave nekuwedzera kwekuwedzera kwemhindu yepamusoro-soro, sezvo mabhanga aishaya mari yekukweretesa nekubatsira kumhanyisa mavhiri ehupfumi.
- Nepo US$ yaiita semari yepamutemo, haina kuzadzisa zvese zvinodiwa nehurongwa hwemari. Mukuru pakati penyaya idzi imari yesimbi kana kuti dambudziko remasangano madiki. Vachishaya shanduko shoma, vanhu vakamanikidzwa kutora mari yerandi yekuSouth Africa. Mishumo inoratidzawo kuchinjana kwemakondomu, airtime yenharembozha, uye masiwiti.
- Nyika yanga isiri kunyatso tengesa kunze kwenyika zvakakwana kuti kuyerera kwakadzikama kwemadhora kuve kuuya kuzoverengera kukura. Nokudaro, vanhu, pane zvisiri pamutemo, vakatanga kutengesa mune dzimwe mari, izvo zvakaita kuti pave nekunyepedzera.
2.3. Zvimwe Zvezvikanganiso Zvakafanana
Zvichitevera sarudzo dzemuna 2013, idzo dzakange dziine nyaya dzekubiridzirwa kwakawanda, bato raVaRobert Mugabe rakakunda musarudzo dzakajeka ivo vakasarudzwa semutungamiri wenyika. Nehurombo, zvikanganiso zvakafanana zvakaenderera ne:
- Gwaro rinokurumidza kurongeka pamusoro pekusimudzira hupfumi hwenyika apo mabhizinesi ese aifanira kunge ari pasi pe51% yevatema, zvichiwedzera kusava nechokwadi uye kumisa kudyara;
- Kupeta kaviri vashandi vehurumende kupa mabasa munzvimbo iyo hurumende yaisabvumira kuzvipira kwakadaro. Mugumisiro wacho waiva wokuti makore mashomanana gare gare ukuru hwebasa rehurumende hwaifanira kuderedzwa zvikuru.
- Kuedza kwakasiyana-siyana kudzorera dhora remuZimbabwe pasina matanho anodiwa ekuvaka chivimbo. Mhedzisiro yacho yakawedzera kusagadzikana & hupfumi hwevatema hukuru, nekuenderera mberi kwekushandiswa kweUS $ semari yepamutemo.
2.4. Chinese Overtures
Haasi ose akarasika panguva iyi. Hurumende yaVaMugabe, yakaramba ichiomerwa nezvirango zveAmerica, yakatsvaga rutsigiro rwehupfumi kune imwe nzvimbo ikabudirira.
Izvi zvakabva kuChina mukudyara kweZimbabwe zvicherwa, kurima &. ushanyi sectors. Mhedzisiro yanga ichikurudzira, nezvikamu zvese zve3 zvichiratidza kuvandudzwa.
Nekudaro, izvi ndezve & yakakura magineti kuvandudzwa kune rimwe dambudziko rakakura. Muchokwadi, izvi zvakakonzera kutya kuti nyika ichanyatso kuve koloni yeChina.
3. Kupenya Kwetariro
3.1. A Sharp Economic Recovery
Nekuda kwekuvharirwa pasi rose, hupfumi hweZimbabwe hwaderera zvakanyanya nedenda reCoronavirus. Nekudaro, nekupihwa chinzvimbo chayo semugadziri wezvinhu zvekutanga, nyika yakaona kusimuka kwehupfumi.
Sezvazviri Bhidhiyo renyika, hupfumi hwakakura ne5.8% muna 2021 zvichitevera kudzikira kwe6.2% muna 2020. Zvikonzero zvinoiswa pamberi zvinoita kuti pave nekuverenga kunonakidza:
- Kukura kweGDP kwakatungamirwa nekudzoreredza mune zvekurima & maindasitiri zvikamu. Isu tinoziva kuti shanduko yevhu & zvirango zvinoremadza zvakange zvaparadza zvikamu zviviri izvi. Rubatsiro kubva kumaChina rwakanga rwatsvagwa kuti apore pano, iyo yakayamurwa nokukohwa kukuru.
- Kudzikira kweinflation nekuda kwegwara remari. Mbereko yepamusoro-soro & matanho emitemo akabatsira kuderedza inflation kubva pa838% muna 2020 kusvika pa60% muna 2021.
- Panguva imwe cheteyo, Hurumende yakaedza kurarama maererano nezvayaiwana nokutevedzera gwara rezvemari. Hapana chimwe chezvakawanda zvakapfuura chakatsigirwa, nemari yebudiriro yakaenzana nemari.
- Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwepamusoro & mari dzekubhadhara dzevashandi dzakabatsira nechiyero chenzvimbo yekubhadhara. Pane kazhinji mauto maviri ari kutamba pano. Imwe, mumashure medambudziko reCCIDID-19, nekugadzirwa kwenyika kuchidzoka pamhepo, pakanga paine kudiwa kwakanyanya kwezvinhu zvekutanga, kunyanya zvicherwa. Izvi zvakabatsira hupfumi hweZimbabwe sezvo kudiwa & mitengo yakakwira. Kechipiri, nekuda kwekuvharika, vashandi vekunze vakamiswa basa & vakasarudza kudzokera kumba, saka mavhoriyamu ekutumira aive akakwira.
- Mazinga akakwana ekudzivirira kurwisa coronavirus akabvumira hupfumi kuti hushande pasina kudiwa kwekuvhiringidzwa kubva pakuvhara. Zvekare, maChinese aibatsira zvakanyanya & nerupo pano.
3.2. Zvidzidzo
Munhoroondo yayo yose, vatongi veZimbabwe vanoita sevaipikisa mafungiro ekare. Izvi zvave zvichisundwa nechishuvo cheavo vane simba chokurebesa utongi hwavo vachirasikirwa negarikano huru yavagari vemo. Chinhu chakaipisisa ndechekuti pfungwa yechimurenga yaivepo muma1970 inoramba ichishandiswa zvisina kunaka kusvika pamhedzisiro yakaipa.
Tora, semuenzaniso, bhonasi ya1997 kune varwi vehondo. Pachinzvimbo chekuti vaomerwe nezvavaida, kwaizova kuchenjera kushevedzera sarudzo itsva kuti nyaya dzakadai seidzi dziitwe sechikamu chehurukuro huru yezvematongerwo enyika.
Izvo zvakafanana zvinoenda kune vasina kurairwa & zvisina kufanira kuitwa land reform. Zano riri nani raigona kunge riri rekutanga macooperatives angadai akakurudzira kuva varidzi veminda pamwe chete uku achibvumidza nzira dzepamusoro dzekurima nemichina kuti dzienderere mberi.
Zvimwechetezvo, kuzviparadzanisa nedzimwe nyika kwakatambirwa neHurumende sekunge yaive menduru yerukudzo. Chokwadi ndechekuti dai pasina maChina, vangadai vakaparadzana kuita hondo yevagari vemo yakatodeura ropa.
Zvakare, kubviswa kwechinyorwa ichi hakusi kwezvematongerwo enyika. Nekudaro, hapana kunonoka kana uchitaura kuti kuita sarudzo dzehupfumi hakufanirwe kukanganiswa nezvematongerwo enyika. Kutora sarudzo zvine mutsindo mudzidziso yezvehupfumi kwaratidza zvakunoita mugore rimwe chete muZimbabwe. Iyi imhosva huru kune avo vaitungamira hupfumi kare.
3.3. Ramangwana
Kunyange hazvo nhau dziri kubuda muZimbabwe dzanga dziri dzakanaka kusvika pari zvino, pane njodzi huru dzasara. Nguva dzose, sezvo mhedzisiro yakaderera inonyangarika, kukura kweGDP kuchaderera mumakore anotevera.
Panguva imwecheteyo, kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu zvazvino uye kudzikira kuri kuita hupfumi kuchakanganisa zvakare kudiwa kwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika uye kumanikidza kudzoreredza kwatove kusimba. Nyika inoramba ichitsamira pamaChinese semudyidzani wayo mukuru wekutengesa nekudyara, uye kuzviparadzanisa nedzimwe nyika kunoratidza kusapera.
– Latest Inflation Figures – Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe
Chinodiwa ndechekuti Zimbabwe ione kuti hairambe ichidzokorora mhosho dzekare.
Parizvino, hapasati pave nekudzoka kumari yenyika nekuda kwekushomeka kwekuvimba kunotonga zvakanyanya.
Kuvimba uku kunoda kuwanikwa zvakare. Zvikasadaro, njodzi yezvemari inokonzerwa nevanhu ichaenderera mberi.
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