Kungekudala kakhulu, iZimbabwe yayisezindabeni ngazo zonke izizathu ezingalunganga. Ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko, umzabalazo wodidi oluxhaswa ngurhulumente ngokobuhlanga kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto zonke yayiziimpembelelo zelizwe elikwisiphithiphithi.
Ukukhawuleza ukuya kumhla wangoku kwaye umfanekiso uchasene ngokupheleleyo. Kukho uzinzo lwezopolitiko kweli lizwe ngokubuya kwedemokhrasi yabameli, uluntu alwahlulelene kangako njengoko lwalunjalo kwincopho yalo kwaye uqoqosho luye lwaphindeka.
Ngelixa ezopolitiko kunye nentlalontle ingeyiyo intlawulo yethu, inika umdla into yokuba emva kokubetha i-800% + yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngonyaka ngo-2020, ilizwe lanconywa nje yiWorld Bank ukuze kuvuselelwe ngamandla iziseko ezisisiseko zoqoqosho.
Ukufumanisa ukuba iZimbabwe ikwenze njani oku, singena nzulu kuzo zonke izinto ze-macroeconomics kwilinge lokufunda ngakumbi.
1. Iminyaka Elahlekileyo - 1997-2009
1.1 Iziqalo ezithobekileyo
– iZimbabwe – iMzila yokuHluma kweGDP
IZimbabwe, eyayisakuba yiRhodesia, lilizwe elivaliweyo kuMazantsi eAfrika elafumana ulawulo sisininzi ngo-1980 emva kwemfazwe yamakhaya ende phakathi kwegcuntswana elimhlophe elilawulayo kunye noninzi lwabemi bomthonyama abantsundu.
ISivumelwano saseLancaster House, esaphelisa imfazwe, sadlulisela amandla kulawulo lwesininzi esimnyama ngelixa sigcina amalungelo enkululeko yabanini-mhlaba abamhlophe abathi, njengabahlali besizukulwana, bazichaza njengamaAfrika kwaye bakhetha ukungabuyeli eBritane.
Kwiminyaka eyi-17 eyalandelayo, ilizwe lalonwabela uzinzo olunxulumene nezopolitiko nezentlalo nangona i-economic boom and bust cycles iqhubekile, into eqhelekileyo kumazwe asaphuhlayo athembele kakhulu kwizinto eziphambili. Ngoko ke, amaxabiso ezizwe ngezizwe ezimbiwa nezityalo achaza indlela elisebenza ngayo ilizwe ngokwezoqoqosho okanye imbalela eyayiza kuphazamisana nemveliso yokutya ngokupheleleyo.
1.2. Black Novemba 1997
NgoNovemba 1997, emva kwengxaki enkulu imakethi yesitokhwe Ukuwohloka, imeko yezoqoqosho ebuthathaka yaphumela kwisiphithiphithi esikhulu sasekuhlaleni. Eyona nto yayiphambili kwabo baqhankqalaza kubunzima obuqatha bezoqoqosho yayingamagqala emfazwe yamakhaya.
Kubalulekile ukukhankanya apha ukuba ngeli xesha, owayesakuba nguMongameli ngelo xesha, uMnumzana Robert Mugabe, wayesele eneminyaka elishumi elinesixhenxe elawula. Njengenkokeli esesikweni yovukelo eyayisilwe kwithafa ledabi yaze yaphumelela ukuzinza kwezopolitiko okwakhokelela kulawulo lwesininzi, wayengumntu ohlonitshwa ngokubanzi.
Phantsi kobunkokeli bakhe, amagqala emfazwe aye anikezela ngezixhobo kwaye kwabakho umzamo omkhulu owenziwayo wokuzihlanganisa kwakhona kwizixhobo zoqoqosho kodwa ngempumelelo elinganiselweyo xa kujongwe ubutyebi belizwe.
Yayivela kwisikhundla sobuthathaka kunye nesoyikiso esibonwa kwisiseko sakhe samandla uMongameli Mugabe wabhengeza inkqubo yoncedo lwezoqoqosho ukuxolisa amagqala emfazwe. Ingxaki kuphela kukuba le nkqubo yayiza kubiza i-3% ye-GDP ngendlela yentlawulo yebhonasi yexesha elilodwa!
1.3 Iingxaki 98 & 99
Ilizwe belingenamali yentlawulo yebhonasi. Baqale bazama ukunyusa okufanayo ngerhafu eyachaswa ngokukrakra ngoosomashishini.
Emva koko, baqalisa ukuboleka, nto leyo yabeka uxinzelelo kwidola yaseZimbabwe. Iimali zelizwe ziqhubekile nokuchithwa njengoko lazimanya nephulo lezizwe ngezizwe ngo-1998 kwimfazwe yesibini yaseCongo. Ngo-1999 kwazisa imbalela kunye nokungaphumeleli kwamatyala kwiimbophelelo zetyala.
1.4. Uhlengahlengiso loMhlaba
Ngokudodobala koqoqosho kunye nokubonisa isiphithiphithi esikhulu sezopolitiko, uRhulumente waphambukisa ingqalelo yabantu ngokuqalisa umthetho wohlaziyo lomhlaba, apho umhlaba owawubanjwe ngabemi abamhlophe wawuza kuphinda unikezelwe kumafama amnyama. Kwalandela isiphithiphithi esikhulu, apho abahlali abamhlophe babaleka ilizwe kunye nokugwetywa kwezizwe ngezizwe okwakhokelela kwisohlwayo ngokuchasene nelizwe ngokwalo.
Impembelelo kuqoqosho yayimbi kakhulu, njengoko izohlwayo zomisa ithemba lotyalo-mali oluthe ngqo lwangaphandle. Kwelinye icala, imveliso yezolimo iye yehla njengoko amafama amnyama ayengenazo iindlela okanye ubuchwephesha bokwenza ulimo olukhulu ngoomatshini baza babhenela ekulimeni isivuno esiphantsi endaweni yoko.
Oku kungenxa yokuba imihlaba emininzi yahluthwa ngogonyamelo, kwaye "abanini" abatsha abamnyama babengenazo iimpepha ezifanelekileyo zokuthetha nabo. iibhanki zenkunzi yokusebenza.
1.5. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto
Ukwehla kwemveliso yezoqoqosho kwizohlwayo kunye nefuthe lohlaziyo lomhlaba olunobundlobongela kuthathe inxaxheba enkulu kwiimali zoluntu. Urhulumente wabhenela ekubolekeni imali awayenokuyiboleka, kodwa ubukhulu becala washicilela imali.
Impembelelo yayikukuba ukusuka ku-2004 ukuya ku-2009, ilizwe labanjwa kwi-hyperinflationary spiral kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso okunyuka kwi-6,600% ngoqikelelo oluthile. Idola yaseZimbabwe yalahlekelwa kuko konke ukuthembeka kwaye uRhulumente wabhenela ekuphumezeni ulawulo lwamaxabiso. Oku kuye kwayenza mandundu ingxaki njengoko abantu bebhenela kuqoqosho olungekho sikweni.
2. Ishumi leminyaka leDola
2.1. Amanyathelo okuqala
Ngowama-2009, amaqela amathathu ezopolitiko ePalamente avuma ukuseka uRhulumente woManyano lweSizwe ukuze enze iinguqu ezibuhlungu kwezoqoqosho lo gama enethemba lokuba umanyano lwezopolitiko nozinzo luya kudala imeko efanelekileyo yokunceda ukubuyisela uqoqosho.
Inyathelo lokuqala elathatyathwa nguRhulumente omtsha kwakungoFebruwari 2009 xa wayegunyazisa ukuthengiselana ngemali yangaphandle kuqoqosho lwangaphakathi. Impembelelo yayikukuba ngoAprili ka-2009, idola yaseZimbabwe yayilahlekelwe kuko konke ukuthembeka kwaye yanqunyanyiswa ngokupheleleyo. I-US$ yaba yimali esemthethweni yeentengiselwano zikaRhulumente.
2.2 Impembelelo yokuqala
Impembelelo yale ntshukumo ibentle kakhulu. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuthe kwabuya umva, inkqubo yebhanki izinzile kwaye kwaqala ukukhula koqoqosho. Nangona kunjalo, kukho iziphumo ezibi ngokunjalo:
- Abantu baqhubeka bengathembeki kwiibhanki kwaye bagcina i-capital yabo kuqoqosho olungacwangciswanga, olwaqhubeka luba nzima kwiimali zoluntu, lunyanzela uRhulumente ukuba ahlawule-njengoko-uhamba.
- Oku kube nefuthe elongeziweyo lenzala ephezulu kakhulu, njengoko iibhanki bezingenamali yokubolekisa nokunceda ekuqhubeleni phambili uqoqosho.
- Ngelixa i-US$ ibisebenza njengemali esemthethweni, ayizange izifezekise zonke iimfuno ezifunwa yinkqubo yezemali. Eyona nto yayiphambili kule miba yayiyimali eziinkozo okanye ingxaki yamahlelo amancinane. Ngenxa yokungabi natshintsho oluncinci, abantu banyanzeleka ukuba basebenzise iingqekembe zerandi zaseMzantsi Afrika. Iingxelo zikwacebisa ngokutshintshisa ngeekhondom, i-airtime ephathwayo, kunye neelekese.
- Ilizwe belingathumeli kumazwe angaphandle ngokwaneleyo ukuze kungene imali ethe kratya yeedola eziza kuphendula ngokukhula. Ngenxa yoko, abantu, ngokungekho semthethweni, baqalisa ukuthengiselana ngezinye iimali, nto leyo eyabangela ukuba kwenziwe umgunyathi.
2.3. Ngakumbi kweempazamo ezifanayo
Kulandela unyulo luka-2013, olugutyungelwe zizityholo zobuqhetseba obuxhaphakileyo, umbutho kaMnu Robert Mugabe waphumelela isininzi esicacileyo waza wonyulwa njengoMongameli. Ngelishwa, iimpazamo ezifanayo zaqhubeka:
- Umgaqo-nkqubo okhawulezileyo wokukhuliswa kwabantwana kuqoqosho apho onke amashishini kufuneka abe nobuncinane obungama-51% abantsundu, okongeza ekungaqinisekini nasekuthinteleni utyalo-mali;
- Ukuphindwa kabini kwenkonzo karhulumente ukubonelela ngemisebenzi kwindawo apho oongxowa-mali bakarhulumente bebengakuvumeli ukuzinikela okunjalo. Umphumo waba kukuba kwiminyaka embalwa kamva ubukhulu benkonzo karhulumente kwafuneka buncitshiswe kakhulu.
- Iinzame ezahlukeneyo zokubuyisela idola yaseZimbabwe ngaphandle kwamanyathelo ayimfuneko okwakha ukuzithemba. Iziphumo zibe kukungaqiniseki kunye noqoqosho olukhulu lwabantsundu, ngokuqhubeka kusetyenziswa i-US$ njengemali esemthethweni.
2.4. Ii-Overtures zaseTshayina
Asingabo bonke abalahlekileyo ngeli xesha. URhulumente kaMugabe, phantsi koxinzelelo oluqhubekayo kwizohlwayo zase-US, wajonga kwenye indawo inkxaso yezoqoqosho kwaye waphumelela kwinqanaba elithile.
Oku kuvela ikakhulu kutyalo-mali lwaseTshayina kwizimbiwa zaseZimbabwe, ezolimo kunye nezolimo. ukhenketho amacandelo. Iziphumo bezikhuthaza, kwaye onke amacandelo ama-3 abonisa ukuphucuka.
Nangona kunjalo, ezi luphuculo kunye nokuphuculwa komda omkhulu kwenye ingxaki enkulu. Enyanisweni, oku kuye kwabangela uloyiko lokuba ilizwe liya kuba likholoni yaseTshayina.
3. ILitha Lethemba
3.1. UkuBuyisa kwakhona uQoqosho
Ngehlabathi ngokubanzi phantsi kokuvalwa, uqoqosho lwaseZimbabwe lubandezeleke kakhulu sisibetho se-coronavirus. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yesikhundla salo njengomvelisi weempahla eziphambili, ilizwe liye labona inguqu ekhawulezileyo kubutyebi.
Njengoko IBhanki ye hlabathi, uqoqosho lukhule nge-5.8% ngo-2021 kulandela ukuhla nge-6.2% ngowama-2020. Izizathu ezibekiweyo zenza ukufunda okunomdla:
- Ukukhula kwe-GDP kukhokelwe kukuchacha kwecandelo lezolimo nelemizi-mveliso. Siyazi ukuba uhlaziyo lomhlaba kunye nezohlwayo ezikhubazayo ziye zawatshabalalisa omabini la macandelo. Kwafunwa uncedo kumaTshayina ukuze achache apha, nto leyo eyancediswa zizivuno ezininzi.
- Ukuhla kwexabiso lentengo ngenxa yomgaqo-nkqubo wemali ongqongqo. Inzala ephezulu kunye namanyathelo omgaqo-nkqubo ancede ekunciphiseni izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso ukusuka kwi-838% ngo-2020 ukuya kuma-60% ngo-2021.
- Kwangaxeshanye, uRhulumente wazama ukuphila ngokwamandla akhe ngokulandela umgaqo-nkqubo wemali onoxanduva. Akukho nanye kwiindlela ezigqithisiweyo eziye zaxhaswa, kunye nenkcitho yophuhliso ehambelana nenkxaso-mali.
- Ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle okuphezulu kunye neentlawulo zabasebenzi zincede ngebhalansi yendawo yentlawulo. Kukho amandla amabini ngokubanzi apha. Enye, emva nje kwentlekele ye-COVID-19, kunye nemveliso yehlabathi ebuyela kwi-intanethi, bekukho imfuno ephezulu yezinto eziphambili, ngakumbi izimbiwa. Oku kuncede uqoqosho lwaseZimbabwe njengoko imfuno namaxabiso enyuka. Okwesibini, ngenxa yokuvalwa komsebenzi, abasebenzi bamanye amazwe bagxothwa kwaye bakhetha ukubuyela ekhaya, ngoko ke imali yokuthumela imali ibiphezulu.
- Amanqanaba aneleyo okugonya i-coronavirus avumele uqoqosho ukuba lusebenze ngaphandle kwesidingo sokuphazamiseka kokuvalelwa. Kwakhona, amaTshayina ayeluncedo kakhulu kwaye enesisa apha.
3.2. Izifundo
Kuyo yonke imbali yayo, izikhulu ezilawulayo zaseZimbabwe zikhangeleka ngathi ziye zacela umngeni ukucinga okuqhelekileyo. Oku kuqhutywa ngumnqweno wabo basemagunyeni wokwandisa ulawulo lwabo ngeendleko zentlalo-ntle enkulu yabemi. Eyona nto imbi kakhulu kukuba i-revolutionary mindset eyayikho ngeminyaka yoo-1970 iyaqhubeka isetyenziswa kakubi kwiziphumo ezibi.
Thatha, umzekelo, ibhonasi ka-1997 kumagqala emfazwe. Endaweni yokunikezela kwiimfuno zabo, bekuya kuba bubulumko ukubiza unyulo olutsha ukuze imiba efana nale ibandakanyeke njengenxalenye yengxoxo ebanzi yezopolitiko.
Okufanayo kuya kuhlaziyo lomhlaba olungacetyiswanga kunye nolwenziwa kakubi. Owona mbono ungcono kakhulu ibikukuseka ookopolotyeni ebeza kukhuthaza ubunini bomhlaba ngokuhlangeneyo ngelixa uvumela iindlela eziphucukileyo zokulima ngoomatshini ukuba ziqhubeke.
Ngokufanayo, ukuba likheswa kumazwe ngamazwe kwamkelwa nguRhulumente ngokungathi yimbasa yewonga. Inyani yeyokuba ukuba bekungengowamaTshayina, ngewaqhekeka kwimfazwe yamakhaya eyoyikekayo.
Kwakhona, ukukhutshwa kwesi sithuba akusiyo inkcazo yezopolitiko. Nangona kunjalo, akukho kubambezela xa kuchazwa ukuba ukwenza izigqibo kwezoqoqosho akufanele kuphenjelelwe yizopolitiko. Ukuthathwa kwezigqibo okuvakalayo okuthe gqolo kwithiyori yezoqoqosho kubonise iziphumo zako kunyaka nje omnye eZimbabwe. Esi sisityholo esinzima kwabo bebelawula uqoqosho ngaphambili.
3.3. Ngelixa elizayo
Ngelixa iindaba eziphuma eZimbabwe bezilungile ukusukela mva nje, kukho imingcipheko enkulu eseleyo. Ngokungaguquguqukiyo, njengoko iziphumo ezisezantsi zinyamalala, ukukhula kwe-GDP kuya kuthotha kwiminyaka ezayo.
Kwangaxeshanye, umjikelo okhoyo ngoku wemveliso kunye nokudodobala koqoqosho okuza kulandela kwakhona kuya kuba nefuthe kwimfuno yokuthunyelwa kwelizwe kumazwe angaphandle kwaye kubeka uxinzelelo kubuyiselo oluthe kratya. Ilizwe lihlala lixhomekeke kumaTshayina njengeqabane lalo elikhulu lokurhweba kunye notyalo-mali, kwaye ukwahlukaniswa kwalo kumazwe ngamazwe akubonisi siphelo.
– Amanani amva nje okuNyuka kwamaxabiso – iBhanki enguVimba yaseZimbabwe
Into efunekayo kukuba iZimbabwe iqinisekise ukuba ayiqhubeki nokuphinda iimpazamo zexesha elidlulileyo.
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, akukabikho mbuyiselo kwimali yelizwe ngenxa yentsilelo yokuthenjwa elawula kakhulu.
Le trust idinga ukufunyanwa kwakhona. Kungenjalo, intlekele yezoqoqosho ebangelwe ngabantu iya kuqhubeka.
Shiya iMpendulo